Oh bugger

Sorry to hear you had to sell, and to rub salt in your wounds, its up 6.4% to
3.59p. Its a bear market at this minute and takes a lot of nerve to hold, best wishes for the future.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200808140700062971B
Not quite as good as hoped for?
cyril

Well i'm back into theses today,and here's the reason why.
From yesterdays AGM all 100pc of production from this year has been sold at record prices.
So thats us sorted until April.
Then we have contracts for 100pc for a further 3 to 5 years it is just the price we need to agree.
What is the lowest price for coking coal in 2009 you can see happening.Some say 350 dpt others say 300dpt and the doom mongers say 250dpt.
Based on 5m tonnes in 2009 at 250dpt and costs of a high 120dpt THAT IS 650M DOLLARS PROFIT ON THE WORST SENARIO.
And its up for sale with several companies doing due diligence?
cyril

After dropping to 250p its recovered in Canada and finished up over 11% at 290p
cyril

WTN will go to 100p

Why?

The STRONG US dollar is a downfall for the miners, my friend.

That's OK then. It won't last long.

LR2 WTN's contracts are for 100% at above US$280 so the dollar strength actually increases its value, so you must give short change to such nonsense. With a projected 3.55m/tonnes output at a cost of(which is expected to reduce as the hard rock problem which has been one of the major causes of a high extraction rate is almost finished) US$120 leaves a very nice figure of "US$525M PROFIT", this year. It also has 50% of the Belcourt Saxon properties which are expected to add
quite a sizable sum to the bottom line.
Here i post a copy by a very astute investor on his account of the drop,

WTN's current SP and that of most commodity stocks is more a reflection of the overall world mood at the moment, rather than some indication of present intrinsic value or future expectation of a particular company.

Everything runs in cycles of relative hot and cold. There was a sea-change in the fundamental valuation of coal stocks earlier this year from the growing realisation of a new era in energy, which oil has spearheaded for some while and with coal eventually catching up. The belated change with coal has come in a much more condensed period and it takes time for everyone to adjust, so a degree of consolidation is expected before moving on and even welcome as a firmer base for the future. Stick traders into the equation and you have volatility from the push-pull effect of different agendas, with one group getting the upper hand for awhile and then the other, often during the same day!

The activity above has little relationship with the value placed on WTN by a potential suitor, which will depend upon their assessment of its worth to them over at least the next decade. The due diligence involved can be more time-consuming than the typical impatient trader or investor is ever able to cope with. The punters think only what is best for them personally and when the ducks don't line up as quickly as they want, they lose heart and become open to views that undermine their confidence.

Meanwhile, millions of dollars are now accumulating on WTN's bottom line from its existing lucrative contracts, half of which is earmarked for CBM, with evidence from reliable sources that future revenue will be of similar scale or better. Whatever happens to the world economy in the near period that might temporarily soften the demand for energy and commodities in general, there's no escaping the fact that a world population growing at the rate of a new Britain every year will never lose its need for basic resources.
At present the SP is recovering in Canada and is just 4.8% down.
cyril

At present WTN trading CDN$4.6 = 2.39p, exchange 52p.
cyril

Well done cyril (post 48)

You need to ignore idiots such as hlyeo. He is the same prat who'll be telling you that WTN is worth 20/share in a bull market.

I'm a trader not an investor but at least I don't come out with pointless comments.

ps I don't own

Cyril, thanks for your response. I've bumped into Hlyeo on other boards and wasn't intending to take any advice from him but was interested to see if he would give a reasoned reply. The one liner didn't cut it with me. I'm not yet a holder here but have recently picked up a few Cambrian shares so I have an interest in what is happening at WTN.

O/T I had an uncle named Cyril who played for Brentford & Spurs. Not the one connected with your board name however.

Well, I'm not bothered if you guys listen anyway. We will see where WTN goes. Time will only tell anyway.

I was so lucky to get out of WTN at 340p in July although I made a loss then. Now I know it is so important to recognise or anticipate weakness.

Steel prices have waned and U.S. steel producers cut production, the run for coal companies may be coming to an end, at least for now. Common-grade scrap steel, for instance, has dropped from as much as $550 a ton to less than $400, making steelmakers who use electric furnaces more competitive than mills that burn coal.

I somehow do agree with hlyeo that it will slide but possibly to 150p.

I wish I could be more optimistic like u, cyril. Good luck.

Justi, its nice to get a considered reply as against the usual one line snips. I just stated facts, WTN have all 100% production committed for the coming year at
US$280+. What the market does at this moent in time is of course another matter,and for those brave enough could be an excellent entry point? The SP at
the moment is taking a battering opened up at 217p, which is higher than the Candian close.
cyril

Why coal producer could be good value?

SOMETHING ON COAL PRICE GOING FORWARD

--------------------------------------------------

Coal Price Stokes Pike Outlook
Posted on: Monday, 8 September 2008, 15:00 CDT

By WEIR, James

Pike expected "good (coal) prices for a number of years".

Contract prices are adjusted during annual price negotiations, taking the lead from BHP price agreements.

ABN Amro and Citigroup are now forecasting coal prices next year of more than US$300 a tonne, with spot prices as much as US$370 a tonne.

"The consensus from about six brokers is much higher prices forecast for much longer. Citigroup (alone) sees coal at US$250 a tonne in five years' time," Mr Ward said.

http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1547712/coal_price_stokes_pike_outlook/

cyril

This while, taken from an article of another company, hits the nail right on the head, imho?

but this episode once again highlights the clear value out there in the resource sector that is being ignored by the market. The share prices of many resource companies have fallen to ridiculous levels and the winners will be the resource predators that will seize upon this unprecedented buying opportunity.
And WTN is i believe one such company?

cyril

Coal is getting bad press - not climate or ecologically friendly.


US scientists say Britain's new generation of coal-fired power stations would undermine climate change efforts.

The British government will lose its leadership position on climate change and risk scuppering a global deal to cut emissions if it presses ahead with a new generation of dirty coal power, say leading US scientists and environmental leaders.

The heads of three influential groups, representing more than 2 million members, have written to the foreign secretary, David Miliband, warning that the UK proposals for up to eight new coal plants threatens the chance of the US joining a post-Kyoto international agreement to be agreed in 2009.

It is the first public sign of growing international anger over the plans and will add to pressure on Miliband and the environment secretary, Hilary Benn, to oppose the government's new coal policy in cabinet. Most immediate is the decision on whether to approve the first major planning application for a new coal plant at Kingsnorth in Kent, the site of this month's Climate Camp protest.

In the UK, there has already been heavy criticism of the plans to build new coal plants, without technology to capture and bury the large volumes of carbon dioxide emitted. Lord Smith, the new head of the government's Environment Agency, recently added forcefully to condemnations by the Environmental Audit Committee, the Royal Society, City investment groups, the government's environmental advisor Jonathon Porritt, former chief scientist Professor Sir David King, and the Institute for Public Policy Research think-tank.

The letter, now revealed to the Guardian, is signed by the heads of the Sierra Club, the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Natural Resources Defense Council. It argues Britain is in a particularly important position because of "your government's historic commitment to lead on global warming in Europe and around the world."

It adds: "As proposed, these conventional coal plants lack any limits on their emissions of carbon dioxide and would drastically increase the UK's carbon dioxide emissions and make achievement of your stated pollution reduction goals extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible. Building new conventional plants and setting the UK up to fail and lose its leadership mantle will make our work in the US all the more difficult."

Tim Jones, climate policy officer for the World Development Movement anti-poverty campaign group, said the concern was shared across the developing world, especially where emerging environment campaigns are arguing for much poorer nations to cut emissions, and rich countries like the UK are being blamed for changes such as typhoons, drought and rising sea levels.

"They can adapt to one to two degrees of warming, but if it's more than that they can't adapt; they are just filled with despair," said Jones.

British officials and ministers are understood to have already been challenged over plans for unabated coal power by other governments.

The US intervention - signed by Carl Pope, the Sierra Club's executive director, Kevin Knobloch, the UCS president, and Frances G Beinecke, the NRDC director follows an unprecedented campaign against new coal power in the US which has led to 66 of a proposed 150 new plants being abandoned or rejected by politicians and the courts, and most of the remainder locked in legal battles.

But although the two main candidates for the US presidential election in November, John McCain and Barack Obama, have both declared their support for international emissions cuts, campaigners warn that any deal would also have to be approved by Congress, which would need to know there was public support for such a move, particularly during a recession.

'If the UK takes a firm stand and rejects conventional coal it will send a strong, clear message to our new President and a new Congress, as well as to other countries considering new coal plants,' the letter adds.

Replying for the British government, the energy minister at DBERR, Malcolm Wicks, said "as a 'live' planning case I cannot comment on the merits or otherwiseor on the timing of any decision".

In a Guardian interview earlier this month, Wicks widened the government's argument in favour of coal, saying that new power stations were not just essential for energy security but also to allow the development of carbon capture and storage technology. Without that technology, "all is lost on global warming", he said, because of China's reliance on the fuel. "The idea that if we showed some kind of lead and we in Britain say no to coal and China will say 'OK we will follow' is just daft," he said. Green campaigners reject the idea that CCS cannot be developed without new, unabated power stations.

A recent report by the IPPR said the European Union's goal of reducing emissions from the power sector and heavy industry through its emissions trading scheme would collapse if the go-ahead were given to seven new coal plants in the UK and up to 75 across Europe

While i accept your post concerning coal and effects on the environment (one of
my reasons for investing in KAH long term), the fact remains that coal is still the most widely used form to produce energy. As far as the UK is concerned, we are but a drop in the ocean compared with China and India to mention two. With WTN and other such companies, its coking coal they produce for the making of steel and my reason for holding, along with they up for sale and are being checked out by several interested parties.
cyril

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=780638
cyril