Macquarie note today:
Sirius has entered into an offtake agreement with a Chinese partner, Yunnan TCT Yong-Zhe Company Limited (“TCT”), for 1mtpa of polyhalite (out of total expected production of 5mtpa) for a 10yr period starting in 2017. Although the price was not specifically disclosed, the company did say that the price was in line with the assumptions for their base case model where they use $150/t. This is also in line with our own price estimate. The offtake price will be fixed for the first three years with a re-negotiation of pricing from year 4 onwards. The agreement contains certain conditions including collaboration on testing and results from crop trials of polyhalite in Yunnan and also Chinese government approvals.
Strong validation: One of the biggest overhangs for the stock has been doubts on whether the company could establish a big enough market for this relatively new product. This offtake therefore represents one of the most significant developments to date for the company as it provides a strong validation of the strategy to sell polyhalite (as opposed to SOP) by securing a large, cornerstone customer for what has until now been considered a niche product.
Gaining a foothold in a key market: TCT is a large privately owned agriculture products company in China, integrating production and distribution of agricultural products along with import and export trade and agrochemical services. TCT’s head office is in the Yunnan Province and the company also operates in the important agricultural provinces of Sichuan, Guizhou, Hainan, Guangzhou, plus Beijing and Shanghai. Securing a major offtake with a Chinese partner is significant as the company has now gained a foothold in one of the fastest growing markets for fertilizers that easily has the capacity to absorb the production from this project.
Outperform: The off-take represents one of the most significant developments for the company to date as it offers strong validation of the company's strategy and will go some way in allaying concerns about the demand for polyhalite. Moreover, securing a cornerstone Chinese customer on the terms agreed should help underpin funding for the project as it increases confidence in the project's economics. The next key catalyst for the stock is the onshore mining licence determination date on 29 July 2013

Harry we don't get it this Chinese "privately" owned company has agreed to buy 1m tons of polyhalite per annum from a company which doesn't have planning permission to start mining....pull the other one!

apparently much more to come from china i am told - they do need this after all considering their population!
gla

in while still cheap as chips!

I would say have a listen to Potash of Gold , post 394 ( a BBC radio programme ). One gets the impression that the local population is largely behind the project. Surely this is the key factor in all of this.

The way I see it , They may have to pander to some of the oppositions' demands, but the project will go on .

Exercise of Options

Should be an interesting couple of weeks ahead!

Possibly a new high on the way.

Or maybe not a new high!

Report prepared by Integer Research

Integer have been around for 10 years, not sure that I would be entirely happy to rely on their report, but what do I know?!

That link may not work! the report can be found here:- http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/living-in/planning/york-potash
under the heading "Potash Markets Study"

Kim - the link is blank!

edit - posts crossed.

Got my fingers legs and posts crossed simultaneously Skinny! :0)

York Potash Project approvals - status update

York Potash Project approvals - status update

· Planning committee report and officer recommendation expected to be published before the end of this week
· Sirius Minerals believes there is an exceptionally compelling case for approval
· Substantial progress has been made on key objections
· Detailed set of planning conditions currently being finalised with the Authority
· Support for the York Potash Project application continues to grow

Liberum note today:
"Following the announcement yesterday that the North York Moors National Park Authority (NYMNPA) had published the executive summary of the AMEC commissioned review of Sirius’ environmental statement, the company has updated on the planning approval process. The company continues to expect the authority to publish their recommendation on SXX’s application by the end of this week and states they have been given no indication either way on the current NYMNPA view. The final decision will be made by a majority vote of the NYMNPA members at the Authority's special planning committee meeting on 29 July 2013 where key stakeholders and view points will be allowed to represent their cases.

Sirius reaffirm their conviction in the depth of detail underpinning their view for approval and have also updated on the AMEC review document and well documented key objections to the project. SXX acknowledge that the AMEC report carries a number of negative statements regarding studies on spoil bulkage, hydrology, ecology and transportation but contest the methodology of their report. They also state that a number of the issues raised are at odds with the position of the statutory bodies. Importantly, SXX contest that the AMEC report does not contain all the latest information on the York Potash project. The company also reaffirmed the local, regional and national support for the project as endorsed by the 1900 public letters of support received to date.

Liberum View: The project approval deadline of 29th July has been the key date for the company’s destiny. The AMEC executive summary should be treated as a subjective document supporting the argument of those opposed to the development of the York Potash Project. Some of the issues outlined in the AMEC review are well documented and have already been addressed by SXX while others will form part of the debate on the approval meeting where all parties will be heard. We make no predictions on the outcome of the meeting but believe SXX has undertaken the necessary studies with appropriate methodology.

Recommendation: The stock will now await the announcement on project approval (29th July deadline) with potential for a further announcement at the end of this week or beginning of next outlining the authority’s recommendation. A positive outcome here will provide a substantial boost for project momentum and drive the share price. The DFS is due for end 2013 completion, with first production targeted in late 2016. Our Phase 1 NPV of $2.5bn excludes any value from NPK processing optionality, and our 36p fair value is based on 0.3x Phase 1 NPV. BUY"

Maybe I will get my 12p.

York Potash Project approval decision deferral

York Potash Project approval decision deferral

The Directors of Sirius Minerals Plc (AIM: SXX, OTCQX: SRUXY) ("Sirius" or the "Company") provide an update on the York Potash Project planning approval process.

The Company has requested that the North York Moors National Park Authority ("NYMNPA" or "the Authority") defer the determination of its York Potash onshore mining application, which was due to be considered by the Planning Committee of the Authority on 29 July 2013.

Since the outset of the York Potash Project, the Company has sought to take the greatest environmental and ecological care in working up its detailed plans. The Company wants to ensure that outstanding environmental queries are addressed as far as possible. The decision to seek the deferral is specifically to allow the Company time to address issues relating to European habitat legislation and robustly deal with the questions over the work completed by consultants on the environmental assessments.

The Company intends to agree a detailed schedule of meetings with the Authority and other key stakeholders to ensure any remaining issues are worked through thoroughly and to the satisfaction of the Authority and the key statutory bodies. No review of the overall timetable of the project has been completed, although this deferral is likely to extend the project timeframe. Further updates will be provided to the market when greater certainty can be provided on the revised timeframes.

Sirius Minerals rebuffs doubts over York Potash viability

Sirius Minerals has vowed to challenge doubts over the viability of its York Potash project published by the consultants for North York Moors Park Authority (NYMPA).

A report by consultants AMEC, published on NYMPA's website, said the need for the development has not been proven.

"In the conclusion, AMEC states that it does not believe there is a significant market for polyhalite and therefore stated economic benefits are unlikely to occur," Sirius said in a statement.

"This is followed with a view that as polyhalite cannot be sold in sufficient volumes, the economic and employment benefits cannot be realised," it said.

Sirius queried the scope of the AMEC report and the factors that it had considered in arriving at its opinion.

"There appear to be a number of omissions in this report and these will be addressed by the Company during the deferral agreed by the Authority on 18 July 2013," Sirius said.

"The Company notes that this report makes no reference to any national need to create jobs and growth and many of the conclusions appear largely based on the findings of the 'Integer Report'," it said.

"In addition, the report makes no reference to the Company's extensive crop study programme and results to date, no reference to the 1 million tonnes per annum Chinese offtake agreement and only a passing reference to the Framework Sales Agreements ("FSA") signed for 310,000 tonnes per annum in the UK and Europe."

Jefferies International Underperform 16.50 16.50 30.00 9.00 Downgrades

In auction down 16.7%.

I think this is all to do with the potash cartel falling out and deciding to go it alone, so the price of potash is no longer held artificially high (even though SXX would be producing polyhalite). At some point the price of potash should stabilise as it appears that the market will take up all of the current production level. The usual 'supply & demand' equation, but as SXX production is way off in the future, I can't see this as anything but a kneejerk reaction to the dissolution of the cartel.

Culmination of that and the delay.

Looks like I can finally buy @12p - think I'll wait for 9p now though.