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Mediwatch - Watch them rocket in 2005 !!! (MDW)     

overgrowth - 12 May 2005 22:21

Mediwatch is a small company destined to become a much bigger fish by the time this year is out. Mediwatch are already a market leader in urological medical diagnostics equipement and are currently exporting their products throughout the UK, Canada, Europe, India and Japan. That doesn't leave much of the globe left for them to capture - until you remember the good ol' US and China. These are the two massive markets which are destined to be added to MDW's export client portfolio by the end of 2005.

The company is currently heavily undervalued. This is probably because Mediwatch's speciality is not a very glamourous business to be in as their equipment is used extensively to diagnose prostate cancer in men and other nasty urological conditions affecting both men and women. However, don't let that put you off investing in these guys. This is big business and is growing at an exponential rate as more and more people globally become health-aware as they get older.

Mediwatch normally supply their products through to global markets via distribution agreements. They already have the best of distribution partners in the well known US medical distributor CR Bard who supply Canada and Europe and GE Medical who supply Japan. The UK business is handled by Mediwatch's own dedicated sales team.

US FDA approval was gained for MDW's products at the start of last year, however a whole year of US legal wrangling meant that they were unable to seek a suitable partner for the crucial distribution agreement until the start of this year. This distribution agreement is expected by the board to have a "significant effect" on the share price so they are reluctant to give any clues as to when it will be signed, sealed and delivered. The general consensus is that this US distribution agreement will be announced in July/August. In China and Hong Kong, MDW have done things the other way round. They have set up distribution agreements with major Asian medical equipment distributors and have stock already out there waiting to sell into the markets - all they are waiting for is SDA approval (which is a "rubber stamp") from the Chinese authorities - this can take anything up to 12 months to come through and MDW applied during Autumn 2004 - so even more good news coming soon this year. Epidemiological data from British Association of Urology conference last year: On average 30-45% of all men between the age of 50 and 70 have at least one PSA test per year in the US / Italy / Australia.

If that's not enough to convince you to invest a few hard earned coppers in MDW, they are also developing a PSA stick test product (PSAWatch) which is revolutionary and causing some excitement in medical circles. This product can also be adapted (at very low cost) for a whole spectrum of medical disciplines from Cardiology to Veterinary Practice! This product is likely to be released in the next few weeks. Philip Stimpson the CEO has said that this product is going to be their "gold mine" - I'm sure it will prove to be ours too.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=MDW&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=MDW&Si

jnknill - 28 Jun 2005 10:17 - 401 of 1497

Apologies! I read the move wrong, I think? Rgds.

ptholden - 28 Jun 2005 10:29 - 402 of 1497

Tis a small tree shake. Sold my small holding at 50% profit overall. But, fear not, have used the proceeds to buy 3 times the number I sold through my CFD account.

pth

ptholden - 28 Jun 2005 10:36 - 403 of 1497

Edit:

Wasn't a tree shake at all, delayed sell of 135k.

ptholden - 28 Jun 2005 14:15 - 404 of 1497

Interesting L2
3v1
MMs happy to take up any sells
I get the feeling they are preparing themselves for the 'news'
(Let's hope there is some)

pth

overgrowth - 28 Jun 2005 15:48 - 405 of 1497

pth - A very shrewd observation you made earlier:

"However, I do ask myself why would someone of his experience / knowledge want to join a tiddly little pharma company? Possibly, because they are not going to be a tiddly little company for much longer?".

I think you've hit the nail on the head there.

MDW are now well on the path to becoming a sizeable, highly profit making organisation.

overgrowth - 29 Jun 2005 09:11 - 406 of 1497

Well, no FY results today - so we now have confirmation of them being released tomorrow.

It appears as though a few folks are buying in now just in case the trading outlook contains more exciting info. on the Medtronic deal.

petralva - 29 Jun 2005 09:20 - 407 of 1497

i hope they don't go for another share placing......unless the med deal is signed.

ptholden - 29 Jun 2005 13:10 - 408 of 1497

Wonder what is precipitating this selling pattern. Hope news of results have not leaked out, or is it just the herd following the herd?

pth

overgrowth - 29 Jun 2005 13:38 - 409 of 1497

pth - part of it is down to me selling my trading stake - I guess others may be doing the same.

I still have a large core holding, though hate watching trades go up into a nice profit and then see the profit wiped out even on good results, simply because there is a tendency for retracement immediately after results.

The trading money will be back in soon as I don't want to miss out on the US deal rise...

ptholden - 29 Jun 2005 13:44 - 410 of 1497

og

MMs pissing me off a lot today on a variety of stocks, most of which appear to have more buys than sells, yet SP being marked down. Quite baffling sometimes and f***ing annoying!!

Can't blame anyone for selling, I did the same a few days ago, but have re-invested through my CFD account.

pth

overgrowth - 29 Jun 2005 13:56 - 411 of 1497

pth - it can be very frustrating trying to work out why sp's are marked down - sometimes it's simply an accumulation of the past few day's books which were skewed to the selling side - there doesn't even need to be a large seller in the wings, hence tricky to know what's going on.

Something I've noticed which is odd is that most small caps. seem to do well when the FTSE is down and vice-versa. It's almost as though investors are moving funds constantly between the two types of stock depending on which market is having an "up day" - seems to be holding true today.

ptholden - 29 Jun 2005 15:57 - 412 of 1497

What the f*** is going on here. if this is a tree shake prior to the results or news, it certainly is working!! If it's based on bad news, then why don't we all know about it?

pth

andysmith - 29 Jun 2005 16:47 - 413 of 1497

Either there will be shite news tomorrow and we've called it wrong or its a bloody good tree-shake, what do you think OG??
My funds arrived this morning but thought I'd wait before adding, glad I did.

overgrowth - 29 Jun 2005 17:17 - 414 of 1497

pth/andy - Much of the excitement with MDW is based around what is going to happen in the coming year and not what has happened in the previous year. The worst that could happen is a further placement of shares without the US deal being signed - if they sign the deal then make a placement I bet nobody would bat an eyelid about the dilution effect!

I believe that MDW's sales have been strong and the results should reflect this. However, I suspect that we may see a comment such as "UK and European approval to sell PSAwatch has been applied for and we are anticipating that PSAwatch will be generating profits commencing in the 4th quarter of calendar year 2005" - that may be a bit later than some folks were expecting.

I took out T25's on credit with the anticipation of possibly seeing an announcement on the US deal before publication of prelims, I would guess others did the same and are simply locking in profits like I did before the traditional fall after results.

Andy - Keep a close eye on what the CEO says about the US deal in the results if it's just the predictable "discussions are ongoing..." then expect a drop after which will be a perfect time to hoover-up a load more MDW at bargain prices. If there is something more solid like "a deal is expected to be signed with Medtronic within the next 6 weeks" then it may be worth buying in first thing - if I see that, then I'll probably take out the T25's again and roll them over.

Mediwatch have expanded into new markets and they had that 1m continuation order from Bard in the autumn last year (which was higher than originally forecast). This suggests to me that results are going to be good, however people who have not researched Mediwatch properly could see the results and be disappointed that there is no confirmation of the China/Hong Kong SDA approval or of the US distribution deal and decide to sell.

As a long term investor, I continue to hold MDW and have a target price of 1 in the next 2-3 years. I'm happy with this hat on to ride the peaks and troughs because I'm confident that Mediwatch will be a real winner over the next couple of years.

As a short term trader, I'm looking for a dip after results to leverage the profits which can be made in the run up to the US distribution deal announcement.

overgrowth - 29 Jun 2005 17:48 - 415 of 1497

Guys - some encouraging news from williedoc on advfn:

"Last call today. There is another PSA stick testing machine on offer by another company. I had not heard anything about it until now. BUT - before you get all depressed and things - check out the following. The MDW machine costs about 1000. The other company's costs 7500 NOT INCLUDING a mini-centrifuge. The cost of consumables - i.e. the kit need for each test is 3.50 for each MDW stick, and 700 for the other company. SEVEN HUNDRED QUID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lastly - the MDW stick requires simply a drop of blood on to the stick then shove it in the reader. Bosh - that's it. The other one requires a small volume of blood - which goes into a micro-centrifuge. You then spin it for a few minutes and pipette out the serum into the machine. Can you for one moment imagine a busy clinician ****ing about with centrifuges and pipettes. This is pure b*llocks. AND ****ing expensive. It is absolutely no competition at all.
Anyway - must dash. Hoping for good things tomorrow."

ptholden - 29 Jun 2005 18:33 - 416 of 1497

og

Sensible comments.

Particularly annoyed with myself as I predicted only a week or so ago that I expected to see MDW retrace to the 11 / 11.5p level. Having done the research and TA I really should learn to trust the conclusions that I arrive at, rather then being stampeded by unfathomable Market Maker activity and a rising SP. I seem able to take a dispationate view when asked for an opinion, but when it comes to my own actions, am far to impulsive. I shall have to train myself better!!

Assuming that the SP follows the rising trend I would now expect this to bounce around about the 10.5 to 11.0p level. Will all depend on whatever news is released before the weekend.

Good luck

pth

andysmith - 29 Jun 2005 19:24 - 417 of 1497

Thanks OG & Pete, I am staying long-term investor with MDW, now I have my funds I am trying to gauge the top-up. Happy I added a few at 11.39p last week as an announcement would have seen it take off. Will read RNS first thing and decide when to add. Have to say I don't really like the "betting" that takes prices artificially high, it makes it difficult for "investors" to judge the best buying opportunities.

jnknill - 29 Jun 2005 22:16 - 418 of 1497

pth, I think maybe you are being a bit hard on yourself. The point being that in my time investing in MDW you have always been prepared to trade ideas, data etc., even if sometimes you know that what you say is probably not what the recipient is wanting to hear and to be honest, on this latest retracement I think quite a lot of investors/traders have been caught out, myself included!! I hope you don,t think that I am in any way being patronising, just feel that we will win out in the end. You, in particular, work too bloody hard at it not to and the likes of me are only thankful that we can bounce queries off you . Tomorrow,hopefully, will start the ball rolling and who knows, we could yet be in an envious position(e.g. What if MM,s decide to mark-up prior to bell?)Rgds.

ptholden - 29 Jun 2005 22:42 - 419 of 1497

jnk

No not patronising at all, many thanks for your support, it is appreciated. I seem to be having a bad week. Two of the dogs I cleared out recently have now shown some signs of recovery, whilst stocks I have chosen to keep have chosen to be red for most of the week. Tough old game this sometimes. Hopefully, whether my decision to buy at 11 or 13p will be irrelevant fairly soon. I, like many others do get fed up with the advantage that the MMs have over us PIs. Their license to report late trades and manipulate the sells & buys leaves us all trying to guess what is going on. I understand why these rules are in place, but IMHO it doesn't make it right!!

Hopefully a better day tomorrow, both with shocks & scares and the golf course.

pth

markusantonius - 29 Jun 2005 22:57 - 420 of 1497

It is a bad week for you, Pete. Hey, you told me to get in these even at 13p!

Get your drives going off the tee again and then you can give me some more top tips!! Are you still sulking after the 7 in side bets I won off you in Monday's Golf Event? Was it 5 or 6 points you scored on the Front 9, mate? :o) :o)
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