markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
watcher
- 17 Mar 2010 13:11
- 4010 of 6492
good point marky.....the political implications are quite huge so going overt with the navy top cover would no doubt add something to the atmosphere of a successful drill programme.....popeye's to the rescue....
halifax
- 17 Mar 2010 14:01
- 4012 of 6492
marky which VIP?
cynic
- 17 Mar 2010 14:06
- 4013 of 6492
depends if it was someone they would rather throw off the side
halifax
- 17 Mar 2010 14:13
- 4015 of 6492
cynic perhaps they are having roast pork (very impressive pig) for lunch on sunday to celebrate.
HARRYCAT
- 17 Mar 2010 14:16
- 4016 of 6492
That looks like a 'solidarity' statement from the FCO & has no bearing on imminent results, imo.
cynic
- 17 Mar 2010 14:24
- 4017 of 6492
let's hope it's neither pig nor dog
markymar
- 17 Mar 2010 14:28
- 4018 of 6492
robstuff
- 17 Mar 2010 16:14
- 4019 of 6492
Rumour has it there will be an rns tomorrow or friday
hlyeo98
- 17 Mar 2010 17:35
- 4020 of 6492
Time to load up fully now.
HARRYCAT
- 17 Mar 2010 17:39
- 4021 of 6492
Nope. Should have done it a while ago, sub 100p.
cynic
- 17 Mar 2010 17:52
- 4022 of 6492
i reckon short odds on rns after close on friday, good or bad
hlyeo98
- 17 Mar 2010 17:54
- 4023 of 6492
Of course, with retrospective sight. Should have bought it at 30p.
Proselenes
- 18 Mar 2010 00:38
- 4026 of 6492
Post from III
Author Stu255
Date posted Wednesday 23:43
Subject Rumours + Rumours = New COS
OK, seeing as I hate posting during the day due to the excessive chatter here is a few fag packet calcs that should help some of the more worried amongst us sleep a little easier at night...
1st there is noise in Stanley that there was a gas encounter during the drilling process. This is a fairly common occurrence whilst drilling and can cause problems, it also raises a significant threat to the safety of the rig so several HSE procedures kick in when gas is encountered. Typically an alarm will sound to alert everyone that gas HSE procedures have been activated. The result of this is that everyone on the rig is made fully aware that there has been a gas encounter.
Now all of the OG crew changes are via the FI, and if every single person leaving the rig witnessed a gas encounter then there would be many, many sources of corroboration passing through the FI to back this story up. Therefore there is more reason to believe the rumour about the gas is correct.
If the rumour about the gas is correct the next question is where was the gas encountered?
A gas encounter can occur at almost anytime during drilling and it can be very dangerous, if things turn bad (which they can quickly) you need experienced and competent decision makers to retake control of the well.
The most common place to encounter gas is the top of a reservoir as the gas is from the same or similar rocks that expel oil the gas will rise through a reservoir and collect immediately below a seal or cap.
Gas is many orders of magnitudes more mobile than viscous crude oil when migrating through reservoirs and if the top or lateral seals have faults the gas will find them and slowly but surely escape into the surrounding formations where it will dissipate far and wide.
If a gas encounter was found immediately below the top seal of the Liz reservoir then we can draw several very powerful assumptions from that information.
1). The top seal and lateral seal are good
2). As gas is compressible it allows for a greater charge to accumulate across the reservoir, improving potential flow rates.
Amongst the vast swathes of survey data held by Desire is something very interesting pertaining to the Liz prospect a flat spot is seen within the Liz reservoir which usually indicates an oil/water interface and marks the lower extent of the oil in place. However a gas/oil interface would also show up as a flat spot on the survey data.
For me, if you take the survey data along with the assumption that the gas encounter rumours are true then it is likely that the gas encounter occurred at the top of the Liz reservoir.
Thus validating our two earlier assumptions, i.e.
1). The top seal and lateral seal are good
2). As gas is compressible it allows for a greater charge to accumulate across the reservoir, improving potential flow rates.
Lets just take a moment to see how those two assumption affect the COS for Liz and see what conclusion that brings us to...
From the CPR we see...
Trap risk......... Presence 1.0, Effectiveness 0.3
Reservoir risk... Presence 0.65, Effectiveness 0.9
Charge............. Presence 1.0, Effectiveness 0.9
Total COS = 17%
If we include our assumptions based on the gas encounter...
Trap risk......... Presence 1.0, Effectiveness 1.0
Reservoir risk... Presence 0.65, Effectiveness 0.9
Charge............. Presence 1.0, Effectiveness 0.95
Total COS = 55.6%
Also we have heard several rumours regarding samples of oil and cores.
I think it was Oil Brat who stated that some of the cores showed a porosity of near 30%... That result would prove the reservoir and a very effective one at that, thus taking the COS to near 100% and giving the BOD the data they need to infer that this is a full blown strike and that they now have the luxury of worrying about volumetrics and flow tests.
As I have said earlier in the week, as far as I am concerned Liz seems to be a strike.
Again obviously all of the above is simply an exercise in how to interpret some of the many rumours. And is in no way a expression of hard facts I have to hand.
Finally I would finish on volumetrics... or Money.
I sincerely hope the BOD publish as much info as possible regarding their initial results. I would be happy with xxx column of HCO's at pressure of xxx or samples of A were taken at depth B, samples of C were taken at depth D, etc, etc as we could then go back to the CPR and gauge depth against area and pressure and draw a wild guess at what the well test might yield. Alas I think there is little chance of such info just yet.
Anyway hopefully this thread will lead to more discussion about the well and fewer pi55ing contests.
I live and hope.
geoffsh
- 18 Mar 2010 07:50
- 4027 of 6492
Very Interesting article in the Aberdeen Press and Journal today.
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1651272
hlyeo98
- 18 Mar 2010 08:09
- 4028 of 6492
All I can say is Tam Dalyell is a wimp and a downright coward. He doesn't deserve to be a MP.