How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
market where all prices are set purely by supply and demand, few transaction costs, no middle men and you only pay commission if you win? Where you can freely act as a market maker and where you have direct market access and where you can create a spread for others to take?

Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

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Kayak, enabled, P.

Scrip/Harlosh et al

Just to prove that the 2 tactics - gambling and trading - can be combined - I backed Rooster Booster (as a bet) at 4.7 - however in running 1.7 was too good a trade to turn down - hence i greened up and then watched harchibald catch it from 25lengths back.

Trying to gamble today (i still dont have the broadband back so trading is too risky) but just cant resist the odd trade - Lord Transcend in the 1.15 was too good to miss and i layed at 2.0 and greened up at 2.44 - nice!!!

Also made a few quid on the cricket this am


hope you are all having a good day

Nice trade Steve. I've done similar myself when I've called the pre-running trend wrong. Got myself out of one or two losing trades.

Would have been a fabulous day for the football but I was doing the family bit instead!!

Me too Scrip. Only managed to get on the W.Brom v Liverpool game. Wonderful stuff though.

An excellent afternoon again, today I was on the matches thanks to some bribery!!

All green now on the Liverpool match so three good results this afternoon.

Scrip,

Have a problem with ABPro when the price moves too fast for it to register with Betfair. Having backed today I tried to lay as it moved against me but it missed. I am reluctant to hit it again in case the price doubles back and you end up with two lays. Today though, the price moved so fast against me that in hindsight it would have been preferable to hit it again.

Have you any thoughts or solutions?

It can depend on how fast the market is moving and where you open your bet.

If your refresh rate is slow then the market may have moved by the time you hit the button. However I tend to back or lay two ticks outside the current price (you have three options on each side on AB). So if I wanted to lay I would click the outer price without an offset and then wait or put my own price in if needed. Because you will always be filled at the highest price you do not need to back or lay at the market as the order will always default to the best price available. You may get the odd crazy fill but only if you are in an illquid market.

If you want to talk it over give me a call.

I understand. Thanks Peter.

ROFL, Fixing the radiator in the lounge, Flicked onto Bloomberg and saw FTSE close to parity. Bet the opposing way. Best five minutes work for ages. Went from a down to an up in the auction. 10% risk for a 100% return, lovely!!

Happy new year all - what a great start to 2005

Blue Endeavour in the 12.10 at Fontwell - layed at 2.62 and again at 2.72 - greened up at 4.9 !!!!!!

Lets hope it carries on like this!!!

Newcastle currently 1.95 to beat West Brom.
Liverpool 1.68 to beat Norwich.
Very tempting.

The odds on Newcastle are effectively pricing in a 1 goal head start. So the open question is whether you think West Brom will score one or more than Newcastle. Currently they are pretty dire!!

Here are some stats for you from data I am mining at the moment.

11.85% of football matches in my database had a goal in the last minute of normal time or during injury time!!! 0.78% had two!!

That sounds promising. Is there any significant weighting towards the team currently in the lead or are either as likely to score in the last minute ?

A roughly even distribution.

Had a look at the Norwich vs Liverpool match. Looking at the match odds to correct score odds, they are wrong. So I have placed a bet by either laying or backing the correct score. Overall I should end up.

For example real odds (over the long term) for Norwich to win 70-1. Odds offered on Betfair 210-1!!! Just a small value gap there!! I doubt if they will win 3-0 but one in 70 will!

Bit complex for me Scrip. I went the traditional route and won very nicely.
Was about to green up after Liverpool scored but before I did they scored again. Even better.

Since I've been doing this I've learned the only thing in football you can be
sure of is that you can't be sure of anything. What a wonderful thing greening up is.