Bioprogress is a stock I have been in and out of quite a few times since it floated in May but not much mention here on the Investors' Room. Does anyone else follow this stock. I see it is up 1.5p today and a few good buyers seem to have appeared.

Stick in there adie. Checkout what happened to the price when the rights issue was executed. Think we are going to get a similar pattern.

cheers GF.

Wanted to find out more about the timing of the next announcement from BPRG and in my naivety made a few calls. Was told that announcements would be "drip fed" as and when there was actual news and interestingly, told that in May, Spider Man (presumably Spider Man 2) would be released in the US with massive PR INCLUDING aquafilm produced spider man sweetie strips. Any views on the implications for BPRG?
GF?
Anna

by courtesy of Vigilante Man and the MW bb.

'Over the next 10 days or so I'm staring down the barrel of a gun on 3 of my T+ trades so decision time beckoning hence spoke to GH earlier today.
Firstly have to say what an immediately impressive bloke to speak to as he took the time out of his busy schedule to respond to my call without delay.
Without going verbatim I got the confirmation I required that between now and 31 March the broker note will be published preceded by another announcement, and I have a strong feeling this is likely to be next week.

He is acutely aware that the share price is being distorted by the stock being heavily shorted although this should resolve 'very soon'. He went out of his way to assure me that nothing had fundamentally changed since Bio stood at 1.50+ and seems so enthusiastic about the 'multi technologies' yet to come.

Hope this helps anyone hanging in by their fingernails!

Dil
I think the quote is

"To travel hopefully is a better thing than to arrive, and the true success is to labor". - Robert Louis Stevenson

He bought shares in BPRG too did he ?

Dil - I think he went for Stagecoach in the end.....

lol , good win for your boys last night ..... I can't even blame the ref , there were three !!

from adv..

I must have listened to the interview with gh 6 or 7 times now . each time i listen to it i pick up a little bit that i didnot catch before .my value on the company at presant would be around the 1.50 mark but the bit that keeps coming back is that GH does not want a brokers note published until the other 50 percent of the current information is out . that i believe now is the swallow deal which must have a value of around 160-220 million this should push the value in my book up to 2.20-3.00 weather the share price actually gets there is of course anyones guess , but as we only have a matter of x trading days before that news is out it is worth the wait .

OT

Dil - pleased to have laid the bogey. We always do badly at Cardiff, probably because our fans have been chased away....! I saw the highlights on Meridian TV. Looked a ding-dong affair and a bit of a farce with the refs as you say. Now the big game on Saturday - home to Sunderland who are just behind us!!

A home win followed by a blockbuster deal for BPRG will do nicely :)

Letter to Shareholders



BioProgress plc

('BioProgress' or 'the Company')

Letter to Shareholders


BioProgress plc today issued its 2003 Report and Accounts and enclosed also a
letter to its Shareholders, the text of which follows.

'Please find enclosed your Company's annual report for the period ended 31st
December 2003. Some of the highlights have been captured on the CD-ROM which
comes with (but does not form part of) the accounts. I hope you enjoy watching
it.

'This is our maiden set of published accounts since our highly successful
listing on the LSE AIM market. Mentioned in the report are two significant post
2003 events. The first was the signing of the global licensing agreement for
our NROBE(R) technology with the FMC BioPolymer which we expect to be worth a
minimum of US$160 million to BioProgress in revenues during the first six years
and which runs for a total of nineteen years to 2023.

'The second event was the signing of the agreement with the un-named US
pharmaceutical company to license exclusively our TABWRAP(R) technology in a
particular market sector. I would like to take this opportunity to give
Shareholders a better understanding of the importance to the Company of this
licensing agreement, as some Shareholders may consider that an initial payment
of US$900,000 and anticipated royalty revenues of only US$1 to 1.5 million in
2005 may seem small by comparison with the revenues previously indicated for the
FMC licensing agreement.

'One of the key issues to bear in mind is the significance of my statement in
the announcement of the TABWRAP(R) agreement that the TABWRAP(R) licensee was
influential in the industry and that the US annual OTC medicines and vitamin
mineral supplement market according to independent monitors was valued at
US$10.8 billion. Figures for the full year 2003 show it has grown to US$11.1
billion.

'Our US TABWRAP(R) licensee is influential because according to IRI, an
independent research monitor, it currently has in excess of 13% of total sales
by value of the US $11.1 billion annual market across a broad range of product
categories. The BioProgress TABWRAP(R) royalties are based on a percentage of
the licensee's gross product sales and, as there are only modest administrative
costs attached, these royalties are almost entirely profit for BioProgress.

'The forecast of US$1 to 1.5 million royalties by 2005 represents an adoption of
the TABWRAP(R) technology by the licensee initially in around 5% of its current
product portfolio. We expect the licensee to progressively adopt TABWRAP(R)
across a number of its products and to use it for several new products. As a
result of this I expect the BioProgress royalty stream from this agreement to
grow significantly in the next five years.'


- Ends -

What fabulous news - just had to copy this from another B&B site:-

"Let me rub my eyes!

They have an OTC contract with a top ten pharma that accounts for 13% of a $11.1 Billion market.

or $1.443 Billion

so if 5% of the pharma production = $1.5 million per year

100% = $30 million per year PLUS new products so taking a 20 year view as with FMC this equates to:

$600 million!

DONT FORGET THIS IS ONE, YES ONE CONTRACT.

Based on future earnings from just these 2 contracts: this alone equates to 5 a share. Another two or three of these and then a quite serious valuation of 10 onwards is not out of the question.

As an ex-stockbroker I recommend you hold your shares!

AND YES PLEASE COPY AND PASTE ANYTHING I HAVE TO SAY ON ANY BULLETIN BOARDS YOU WISH.

I suggest any doubters read this!

http://www.bioprogress.com/html/news/archive/18-03-04.html

Shorters jumping ship like scalded rats.

cheers GF.

GF , I don't believe this was ever "heavily shorted" as quoted elsewhere. The sellers were sellers and the buyers are buyers (half them are probably the ones who chucked them earlier), simple as that.

140-144p is still key area.

just glad i stayed with these when lots of others were jumping ship, even topped up and the news looks impressive. happy days.

happy days are here again and we shall see 1.40 very shortly indeed.

from t'other bb,


Hello all, good to be back and only had to trail through 175 post.

Up again. Fantasic!

So where are we now:

Valuations on average from the high forheads of between 2.50 to 3.80ish at TODAYS value.

Top 10 pharma announcement imminent plus a further 2 to come in the next 6 months + a lot more Im sure we dont know about e.g. Nasdaq listing?

So we all know that this is going to fly up to and beyond 5. Well why dont we all relax and let the MM's panic as we have the stock and they havent!

The institutions, lets be quite honest also are not going to get their stock. The MM and inst's without the stock are going to push this higher on their own.

GH has the product, the machines, the contract winning skills and most of the top flight pharma community running aroung wanting to meet and discuss how to dump gelatin and replace with Xgel in the US, and then Europe, Asia and the rest of the globe.

They have 70 patents on their products and the nearest competition is 2 to 5 years behind by which time BPRG will have cleared up. I rest my case.

My strategy is : sell 1/3 at a 5, another 1/3 at 7.50 and the balance (yes you guessed it - 1/3) at 10, unless by the first tranche they havent already gone to the moon 25 - 100 or been taken oever (most probable).

I just imagine a day when all oral medications use XGel (3, 5, 10 years time?)

It is so good to be a part of a revolution.

Upbeat at lemming investor today..................

BioProgress seemed to want to underline the significance of two key events today Mentioned in the company`s maiden report for 2003. The additional statement has had a benificial effect on the share price by notching up 6.5p in early trading to 118p bid. Still way off its hight of 167p. However, still up from our 55p.

The first was the signing of the global licensing agreement for its NROBE(R) technology with the FMC BioPolymer which we expect to be worth a minimum of US$160 million to BioProgress in revenues during the first six years and which runs for a total of nineteen years to 2023.

'The second event was the signing of the agreement with the un-named US pharmaceutical company to license exclusively our TABWRAP(R) technology in a particular market sector. I would like to take this opportunity to give Shareholders a better understanding of the importance to the Company of this licensing agreement, as some Shareholders may consider that an initial payment of US$900,000 and anticipated royalty revenues of only US$1 to 1.5 million in 2005 may seem small by comparison with the revenues previously indicated for the FMC licensing agreement.

'One of the key issues to bear in mind is the significance of my statement in the announcement of the TABWRAP(R) agreement that the TABWRAP(R) licensee was influential in the industry and that the US annual OTC medicines and vitamin mineral supplement market according to independent monitors was valued at US$10.8 billion. Figures for the full year 2003 show it has grown to US$11.1 billion.

'Our US TABWRAP(R) licensee is influential because according to IRI, an independent research monitor, it currently has in excess of 13% of total sales by value of the US $11.1 billion annual market across a broad range of product categories. The BioProgress TABWRAP(R) royalties are based on a percentage of the licensee's gross product sales and, as there are only modest administrative costs attached, these royalties are almost entirely profit for BioProgress.

'The forecast of US$1 to 1.5 million royalties by 2005 represents an adoption of the TABWRAP(R) technology by the licensee initially in around 5% of its current product portfolio. We expect the licensee to progressively adopt TABWRAP(R) across a number of its products and to use it for several new products. As a result of this I expect the BioProgress royalty stream from this agreement to grow significantly in the next five years.'

cheers GF.

From other bb,

Anyone can post whatever they like as far as I am concerned but I do tend to skim over the posts about CS and MM's. The only thing that interest me are deals, revenues, potential bids and progress on the machines and technology developments.

Don't really go a lot on the don't sell your shares posts - people can sell if they want to or buy if they want to. Posts advising people not to sell written in huge letters without any other content probably have an adverse effect as they have an element of panic about them. If they are backed up by solid reasons based on fact then that's different.

I wouldn't be so presumptive to call for those posts to be reduced as my view is that anyone can post what they wish unless it is with a malicious objective of misinforming in order to manipulate the market. On that note I feel IC has entered that territory and he and advfn are on dangerous ground - erroneously suggesting an existing major deal had been cancelled etc etc.

I think the bb's are best used for idle chat, a bit of humour or passing on some useful information that has some semblance of accuracy.

Anyway, the issues I hold firmly in my mind are:-

1) Instututions queued up for 11m shares at 110p and would have liked a further 20m shares at 110p.

2) Nrobe is licensed out with minimum revenues of $160m. The margins on these revenues will be high. Broker notes will give some clues on the margins.

3) Tabwrap is partially licensed out (only to the OTC market) with potential royalties ftom this minority sector of $30m upwards. We await a broader licensing agreement for supplying the pharmaceutical sector which would dwarf even these sizeable figures.

4)Aquafilm is supplying significant revenues for this year with high margin products. This should lead to a profitable year. GH has already stated that downpayments for the OTC deal and of course the anticipated further licensing deal will fall into this year. It is not a question of whether BPRG will be profitable this year - we await the broker notes for a guideline on how profitable this year will be. The following year will of course be the one to produce the revenues of jaw-dropping proportions.

5) 17m in the bank

6) Ostomy licensed out to the biggest player in the $1 billion market who controls nearly 50% of that market with an inferior product to the BPRG bag they will switch to later this year. Regardless of launch date, minimum royalties will start to be paid later this year.

6) We await licensing of Swallow - a technology applicable to a $5 billion market.

7) We know that Aquafilm supplied Cardinal/Scherer for their SEO project and appears to be the only game in town regarding supply. Further research is needed on whether Aquafilm supplied Cardinal for existing needs aside from the SEO project. Bid rumours have stemmed from this but there are other factors.

8) The fact that BPRG are on the verge of licensing Swallow is another reason driving the bid rumours. Will Cardinal/ Scherer watch meekly while their major clients for soft gel capsules switch to XGel? Will they sit passively as their staggering revenues become somewhat less staggering? Unlikely I would have thought.

9)The complete absence of serious competition for all the main XGel technologies. Nothing could highlight this more starkly than the pre-patent site with the likes of Pharmacia-Upjohn specifying BPRG as the source of HPMC non-gelatin capsules.

10) The broker note is due very soon according to Graham Hind and it will follow a major licensing deal. That broker note will of course back up why the placing at 110p was three times over-subscribed with institutions.

I haven't even mentioned the potential for Aquafilm to be applied to Viagra or for Septum (a technology that GH does not rule out licensing this year due to unexpected rapid development) to revolutionise the pharma industry. No need to mention the peripheral low margin multi-billion markets for confectionary, paintball and household products that BPRG declines to tackle at present. Those in the list are the here and now prospects. The hard graft has been done while the company was on the OTC Nasdaq and we can now reap the rewards.

The only concern with this well-funded, multi-patented and deal laden stock is that it will be taken over somewhere between 200p and 300p very short-term.

Any idea who might like the look of Bioprogress as a potential target! Would it be someone like Glaxo or would it sit outside the pharma market? Not really fussed if it goes that way as been holding since 60p and added as it risen recently.

Good Luck to all holders.