for more information about stanelco click on the links.

driver's research page link
http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=7681#lastread
website link
http://www.stanelco.co.uk/index.htm

I'm bullish on this SEO, successful ASDA deal will bring greenseal to world leaders , walmart? also, other products are rolling out, should break new record share price soon.

A couple of interesting points from the Trendwatch analysis. First, the mention of 400 machines in the UK and 1000 on the continent. These are clearly machines dedicated, probably, to ASDA supply. Its worth noting that ASDA effectively twists the suppliers arm to use the recommended technology by sharing the savings. This means that they reduce the amount paid to the supplier on the assumption that is making savings by using the technology. Not much choice there! Second, the reference to the fact that goods are probably being used by customers: whilst the machines have been doing trials, the machines have been retro-fitted so will go on using R/F even though an order has not been placed. Clever tactics in my view because the SEO must be to get their technology used as standard.

Reference has been made to the trials with Oscar Meyer which were announced in October. My reading is that these have been overtaken by the ASDA exclusivity deal. It was a good first step but ASDA was obviously far better. The Reiser arrangement in the US was discussed in the February prelim report and I suspect that it was this relationship which led to the deals with Premier and Advanced, rather than the more speculative, at that stage, prospects with Wal-Mart. Are these interpretations agreed?

Squidd. Obviously we all have our own strategies and bottom fishing is fine - I have just, I believe, achieved this with ASC. But SEO, I am convinced, is a classical case of running your profits. We really are still in very early days. Two prominent tipsters have recommended the share this week, one looking for 50p, on top of the 30p looked for by Evolution and the buy recommendation of the house broker, KBC Peel Hunt. When I look at the cap. of 200m I react, why 200m? It could be ahead of itself, like PDX for instance. It may not move much further until the news is harder, i.e. the ASDA potential is quantified more clearly. But we are still looking at a 5-bagger from here when you take a 'most likely' view rather than a pessimsitic one. Look at it as a ledge waiting for the next stage of the ascent. Personally, I have never felt more comfortable with an investment, even when it is overweight to 50% of my portfolio.

bos: thanks for improving the graphs. Clever boy!

Eric

You cannot argue with the financial ratios - from KBCPeel report :

A SEO 2003 (Prelim 2004) Sales 1.9M Reported Pre Tax Loss 0.6M PER x -339.5
A SEO 2004 (Prelim 2005) Sales 1.3M Reported Pre Tax Loss 2.8M PER x -67.3
E SEO 2005 (Prelim 2006) Sales 3.8M Reported Pre Tax Loss 0.4M PER x -566.3
E SEO 2006 (Prelim 2007) Sales 15.4M Reported Pre Tax Prof 5.6M PER x 50

So even in 2007 - at todays price - if they get all their orders - the price of 22p in 2007 at prelims would give a PER of x 50.

Take the PER down to a very high (but lower than terrible 50) of x 20 and what reduction to the share price of 22p do you have to give a PER of 20 ?

They can spin all they like for now - but they cannot spin for 2 more years - its just a matter of time - the spinners will keep holding whilst it keeps rising - once the spin and hype and tip is not taking the price higher anymore - they will all leave for better gains elsewhere - yes its been a great ride from 4p to 22p - but do you honestly think that spin - hype - ramp - tip will keep this going up - already Asda and Walmart are in the price - there is only room for disappointement in future.

So - you have the next 3 years already in the price - fundamentals cannot and will not be forgotten - the price has risen against RSI.

(on the other company Rampelco spin roadmap - notice how Toadpak is being brought forward a little - they have been exposed and now have to spin and hype more in the coming 2 months - Rampelco want to do a dilution soon - issue more shares to raise money - got to feed the frenzy - keep that SP high - offload another load of shares to raise money IMO)

Anyway - Good night - see you in the morning.

And good morning too -

I should get back to providing research links and stop thinking about these fictitious companies Rampelco + Welsmart - for those with an interest in the biodegradable envelopes padded mailing bags just in case you think its something new -

http://www.globalsources.com/si/6008801434161/ProductDetail/Envelope-letter/product_id-8828725898/action-GetProduct.htm

http://www.ecoproducts.com/Business/packaging/packaging_index.htm

http://www.packexpo.com/ve/35078/main.html

http://www.auspackaging.com.au/products/prtctive.html

http://www.geami.com/

http://news.thomasnet.com/fullstory/451873

http://www.swboxmachine.com/

http://www.pro-pac.com.au/enviro.html

http://www.ecoproducts.com/Business/packaging/packaging_mailers.htm

http://www.npscorp.com/pages/Versa_pak.html

http://www.alibaba.com/trade/company/goto/10055115.html

http://www.xpander.com/corporat.html

http://www.packagingunlimited.com/store/dept.asp?dept_id=18

http://www.altapak.com/aboutus.html


Before someone spouts on about the Bio Pouches (do not think they will as its old news but might be attempted for a new spin and jam tomorrow product) see the link below

http://www.cortecvci.com/whats_new/announcements/CRT_EcoSol.pdf


And the biodegradable trays cannot ramp that as Sharp Interpak do it already

http://www.sharpak.co.uk/news.html


For the more cautious watcher the sudden jump on Toadpack is either someone has blown the spin roadmap open so go early or there is trouble with Welsmart (do not forget with Welsmart that Rampelco themselves have made no comment no promise and therefore do not have to say anything on this if it does not happen its only the rumour makers who have put this into the equation to keep interest there over the rest of this year to try and support the SP) if they see that Welsmart is not going to happen they need to replace it with something else this jump on Toads (poor Toads) may be a sign that Welsmart is not coming off. (Rampelco Welsmart Toadpack are all fictitious companies and any reference made implied or otherwise to real companies is to quote Howey misunderstanding and not my problem or liability)

Someone needs a girlfriend i think,, someone stays up every night over the weekend doing lots of research,and coming up with thousands of websites,what a geek..

Good morning to you too jimmy b

Stanelco's biggest competitor it seems is Sealed Air (Cryovac) the ones who also do new tray lidding that gives very long shelf life - the same Sealed Air (Cryovac) working with Sainsbury and the French meat producers - the same sealed air that does those wonderful "Jiffy" bags for fragile shipping - I should rephrase that - a tiny insect trying to annoy the big mighty Sealed Air is .................

http://www.sealedair.com/index.htm

http://www.foodproductiondaily.com/news/ng.asp?id=58479
http://www.foodproductiondaily.com/news/news-NG.asp?n=52476-meat-range-with

morning. great posts by andys and eric over the weekend. andys opinion is worth listening to as he , and a few others on this thread, work in packaging. all industries have their own grapevine and news spreads quick, especially bad news. i would imagine our packaging boys would be quick to hear about anything negative on the grapevine about seo. eric mentions "the more speculative, at that stage, prospects with Wal-Mart." absolutely correct. all seo have said about walmart is that they are preparing to pitch to them in usa. obviously, the current trials and subsequent results will be used in the pitch, so, so far, so good. i am guessing that the american engineers will be learning retrofitting on the job as seo prepare asda packers for the current trials. i have a wonderful picture in my head of these americans trying desparately hard to understand the people at hitchens in wigan!! (congrats to wigan on promotion to prem!)

The posts here have been excellent from the regulars, trendwatch may have made a couple of blunders but they have also called a number of multi-baggers very well. In conjunction with this you've got a buy recommendation from rhps, which have also issued a number of astute investments.

These recommendations should bring a raft of new investors who have stayed out due to risk of buying at the top. It should also give current investors a degree of reassurance. The potential pitfalls are clearly highlighted and im very content and excited about the long term potential on this one......currently over 30% of my portfolio!

One must remember there are two sides to every story -

Taken verbatim from May 2005 SmallCapShares Magazine (by RedSky Research)

Revenues: under 10m; market cap: 170m; conclusion : clear

Stanelco, the movie, may be worth 170m, but Stanelco, the company, is not. The company has now finalised arrangements for Asda to adopt its tray-lidding technology, and it quickly thereafter appointed two US companies to commence installing it in the USA. These developments sent the shares up to 21p and the market capitalisation to nearly 180m.

Momentum may take the shares further, but at some point punters may pause to considerthat although the revenue arising from the Asda deal will be significantly in excess of 5m in the first year, it will only be the tiniest fraction of 180m. And the total company income to which this project will be added was just 1.3m in the 12 months to last October.

Stanelco has several other intriguing development projects, but none of them come anywhere close to underwriting the current share price.

Stanelco came very close to being our first 10-bagger (generating 1,000 pc profit). We firsat bought it at 2.4 in October 2002, but we got a bit wobbly about it just before Christmas when it was drubbed in a patent infringement suit just after the chief executive sold 41m shares at 4p (collecting 1.6m and thereby forgoing a further 7m he could have pocketed by hanging on for a few months hindsight is a wonderful thing). These developments led us to dump Stanelco at 4p (we allowed generously for the spread in this penny share). However, one angst-ridden month later, the Asda project and a couple of other positive factors having emerged, we did a U-turn and bought them again at 5.5p. Which puts us 260pc to the good in four months. You need one of those every now and again. Neat work. Lets hope this is too: SELL.

In the subsequent Newsflow tables it comments:
1 month risers Stanelco +29pc Asda signs up for new technology. Massively overvalued in our opinion. SELL
6 month risers Stanelco +430pc From clapped out to incredible optimism. See above.

And now for a long post on margins - sales - revenue and what to look for -

Negotiation or Commercial discussion ?

From the results:
"At the time of writing we are in advanced negotiations with Asda Stores."

Yet from the latest statement:
"These trials are producing benefits well beyond OUR expectations and we look
forward to the imminent commercial discussions that are now being arranged."

I thought they were in advanced negotiations. Which is it?!
If they are not, then all the broker note figures/ predictions are complete rubbish, pure fiction and made up by someone sitting in a back room.

An interesting comment from someone else and one that leads to many questions

1/ IMO the negotiations were with Asda to allow SEO to run trials on Asda products this following the trials direct with suppler Oscar Mayer which went nowhere ? obviously Oscar Mayer did not see any benefit or it there was some it was too small to cover increased costs (conversion + license fee). The commercial discussions are with the suppliers who are the ones who hand over the money and convert machines. It was spin that confused people they failed in going direct to suppliers so tried via Asda to show them the benefits (less leaking + better seal against poor condition and very old heat sealing machines) and then get Asda to sign a contract making the suppliers change IMO.

2/ IMO the commercial discussions are with suppliers - we have tipsters and brokers quoting figures of sales and margin and license fees however there appears to have been no commercial discussions yet so how do they know ? With the tipsters and brokers stating that 100 machine conversions is worth 2.5p on the price (up from 4p starting line) , then how do they know these figures. Is it normal for a company entering into its first commercial discussions to have sales - cost margin - revenue like information posted everywhere before the negotiations and the detail being on a machine by machine basis ? If I were the buyer or the head of the commercial side of the buyer I would love it as you can be sure there would be big discounts on these figures leave them with say 5% margin and minimal license revenue. How is it possible for these to be posted on broker reports on a machine by machine basis ? Do Ford advertise their build cost of a new Focus giving details of margin selling price profit per car I think very much not that is simply pathetic.

Or not saying it is but it could be these figures were generated to support the price after those first real negotiations will we see greatly reduced margin and greatly reduced license fees will this mean that not 100 machines = 2.5p up from a 4p base share price but indeed 500 machines = 2.5p - or maybe 1000 machines = 2.5p.

This could change the present way of looking at the SP which is they must get 1000 orders to support the 22.5p price to - they potentially could need 5,000 orders to support the 22.5p price ?

We also see a steady rising of the conversion cost and license fee as new broker reports come out to justify the price per share now it was a 25K license fee now the share price has risen they are saying its a 35K license fee trends like this ??

Why should suppliers change and if you change you want the best price you can so could the figures be 10K to change the machine and a 5K per machine license fee per year for 5 years ? Or might it be 5K to change the machine and a 2K per machine license fee per year for 5 years.

IMO the figures banded around have been manipulated and made up to try to support the SP on a minimal amount of machines basis the real margin will not be more IMO it could well be a lot less though and put those forecast in severe doubt.

And as I love to point out its still pending trial completion before even the Asda contract comes into effect and even then they say Asda suppliers will convert where practical meaning some may and most likely will not

The KBC Peel report shows 72 machine conversions sales in 2005 with a gross profit of 1.2M. KBC Peel is the official one and only company broker so we must take their figures as near but probably in best case highest region as they are the company broker.

Are Asda suppliers willing to pass their money over to SE0 to give them a gross profit of 1.2M on 72 machines or perhaps they might let them have 400K gross profit after 72 machines or if their negotiator wants to save the suppliers money and make the suppliers more profit then maybe giving SE0 a gross margin of 150K for those 72 machines forecast for 2005.

The gross margin comes from the license fee only the stated figure being 25K per machine per year license of which 100% is gross margin meaning machine conversion is done at cost ? Or was the margin on the proposed 72 conversions the other 0.2K sales in the KBC Peel report ?

The trouble is the spin has been on the better sealing and longer shelf life the same as you will get from CPET laser sealing or a decent new heat sealing machine or Cryovac systems or whatever.

The real only way this moves forward is IF suppliers can see a saving in running RF sealing.. If the supplier does their OWN sums and works out that any possible saving from using RF sealing is 5K pound per year then maybe they will not accept a license fee as the cost of conversion is 25K so it takes them 5 years to get Return on the Initial 25K cost of converting no room for a license fee.

If the suppliers see a saving of 15K per year then taking out initial conversion cost of 25K they might agree to lets say a 5K per year license fee allowing them to recover ROI and split the small benefit between them an SE0 over a 5 year period eg converting cost to supplier is 25K, saving over 5 years is 75K. License fee for 5 years of 25K.

Over 5 years lets say total of 75K saving 25K conversion cost = 50K real saving 25K license fee of 5K per year = Supplier saves 25K and SE0 gets 25K over the 5 years plus SE0 getting the 25K initial conversion.

The savings figures are all estimated and from the pro RF sealing side Oscar Mayer saw very little saving IMO it appears from their trials end of 2004 and I am quite sure that nobody will be willing to pay 25K per year license fee might be wrong but I do not see it.

If SE0 are happy with the margins - then when they announce any machine contracts they will publish them for all to see (eg this contract is for 72 machines and is worth 10.8M in sales over 5 years) if the margins are much less than KBC Peel forecast they will be kept hidden and you will not know until its too late.

Going on KBC Peel figures of 150K in sales (25K conversion + 125K (25K license per year for 5 years)) per machine this equals sales of 10.8M if suppliers order 72 machine conversions in 2005. Any number of machines and the contract amount must follow that ratio if its lower then there has been big discounting.

EG if they announce that 72 machines are to be converted in 2005 with sales of 6M over 5 years then the forecasted ratios are well down and this is bad news.

If they just announce a number or machines or just a contract value over 5 years and not both it would point to hiding the real figures and that could mean margin well below expectation.

The present KBC forecast shows sales of 3.8M in 2005, this means 72 machines (25K conversions and first year 25K license) x 50K = 3.6M + 0.2M from SEO core business and all others ???

So what to look for if KBC Peel are right on margins then ratios

72 machines = Initial order value of 3.6M (or 10.8M over 5 years).

Each machine conversion must = 50K GBP in the first year or 150K over 5 years.

EG 100 machine conversions = First year 5M sales or 15M over 5 years.

Any variation from that formula will show discounting (or better margins) and any hiding of the contract values or number of machines will point to potential much lower margin than forecast no need to hide it if its good. Will it be spin or will it be come clean time ?

Now no doubt people will come back that the savings for suppliers are massive and some hype artist reckons there is a 100K saving per machine per year I do not think so only in the most extreme of circumstances could that figure come in part of the UP TO spin classification rather than FACTUAL average value. But savings may be more than lets say 15K per year but yes the factor missing above is what the financial gain Asda want from this they will want cheaper purchasing price from the supplier based on the supplier savings too if there is any so that is a another potential negative factor which will drive the margin down. Asda will no doubt want the largest slice of the supplier savings followed by SE0 with their license fee and the supplier gets the little bit left not so attractive is it ?

Expect the suppliers to hit back hard when doing commercial negotiation IMO and expect the forecasted margins to go down on discounting if orders ever happen of course.

And now for the accelerated roll out why well yes there is competition and probably the most important factor is that when people start to use it suppliers can in 3 months or 6 months start to find ACTUAL savings figures and if the suppliers are not happy with their savings level after 3 or 6 months you can be sure they will make loud noises over it which could spell the end of it (or at least the license fees) sooner rather than later and of course the other thing said earlier - competition !

What stood out to me most of the RHPS report (apart from the could-maybe-might be-possibly type of wording) was the final few lines now I can find no reference to RF tray lidding patents and as RF sealing has been around since 1945 it would be very hard to apply a patent to an application of it with many many companies in the world doing RF sealing how long from now before someone else has a kit for tray lidding 1 month 2 months 3 months (not forgetting Laser and Cryovac and all the others and other things going on in the industry ) the final few lines of that report said it all changes if there is competition now is that putting into place the exit call rather than have to justify the rest of the report and any failures to achieve figures or margins the moment someone else comes along just say competition and exit (read that last update in May final few lines mate saw it coming time to get out). I would say those lines are pre empting what will be an avenue of leaving with no accounting for the figures IMO.

Any views ?

You really do need a girlfriend !!its Sunday...

I haven't even read Don Q 1st stuff its far to long I have been to work to day but I am sure he is bashing again.
Why can't you just put SEO is a load of crap or some thing similar DONT BUY SEO.
It will have the same affect, the sp will rise it always does.

BASHERS NEVER Bash A BAD STOCK

II,

Do you own SEO? Have you ever owned SEO? Are you planning to buy SEO? Are you "short" on SEO? Are you hoping that by bashing, it will help the sp to slide even further so you can buy at a lower price?

WHY are you bashing it so much and what's in it for you? If you hate the Company that much then WHY are you spending so much of your time and energy in posting, at all? I don't understand your position? What's innit for you?

Please explain your festering hatred for such a promising new young Company..........................? Is the CEO your ex-father-in-law or something? If not, then what is YOUR PROBLEM?

now i am really looking forward to tomorrow!!!! jimmyb , driver , markus , just filter it. i am pretty sure it's all crap and when it's filtered you don't have to read it. brilliant!!

Insiderinside, the man using this id is allegedly Barry Muncaster.

Some will instantly realise that Barry Muncaster is now a paid consultant of Bioprogress. He has in the past been a paid advisor during the infamous seo V bprg legal case and was allegedly a major influence in bringing the case against Stanelco, having a personal interest in the case.

Whilst it is quite reasonable for any poster to provide an alternative perspective on a bb thread regarding a particular company, it is quite another to do so if you are in the paid service of another company directly involved in a legal dispute and your posts demonstrate a persistent and deliberate intent to cause harm/damage.

A legal court order etc will provide the conclusive proof and if it is you Barry the Lid will go on for a long time, RF sealed.

bos
I did decide to monitor Don Q 1st but like you say it is so much crap and so much of it my eye lids start to drop then I give up, he must spend hours living, breathing, and writing about SEO a bit like us really. Yes here we go again tomorrow onward and upwards Donny here we come.

GOTYA
Quite a serious allegation you are making there GOTYA, if it is the case that Don Q 1st is who you say then may be some one should contact him.

So Walmart posted a profit warning, GOOD. They'll be looking at cost-saving measures and reducing waste and little 'ol Asda know just the folk. In fact they can deliver the goods in Frogpack too, delivered safe and sound without damages and they biodegrade the outer pack and recycle the meat pack.
What a company SEO is turning out to be. Bioprogress my arse, what progress, oops, 131p to 31p!!! SEO 4p to 23p, and I agree with Driver, if you are brave enough to hold for 2-3 years >150p could be the reward.
Of course, be good boys and girls and DYOR!!!!

Interesting comment, GOTYA; this does provide an explanation for the distorted posts. When you listen to a defending lawyer, acting say for the Ripper, he sounds very plausible; he takes a particular point, distorts it, turns it round so that truth appears false and false appears truth. The lengthy arguments sound like a lawyer: one who is willing to argue anything if he is being paid for it. I have made the point before: I accept anyone who is prepared to give a balanced argument and comes to a different conclusion to me. This poster is in no way balanced and, in my view, thorughly dishonest in the way he twists an argument on unsound foundations. I will give examples from the above posts.

(1) In post 4047 he quotes KBC Peel Hunt's figures for 2006 (Prelims 2007) as Sales 15.4m, pbt 5.6m PER 50. "So even in 2007 ... if they get all their orders - the price of 22p in 2007 at prelims would give a PER of 50". He takes the projected figures for 2006 and transfers them to 2007 because the prelims will not, he assumes, be announced until February 2007. He does not mention the projection for the year to Oct 2007 (when the royalties will be much increased in significance) and the corresponding figures are Sales 31.6m, pbt 16.7m, PER 16.9 (which will be clear at the time of any announcement with the 2006 prelims). Note also that he tries to plant a negative idea in the mind with the phrase "if they get all their orders" as if 1000 orders by 2007 is the maximum potentail number of orders. Peel Hunt are at pains to say that the global market is 50,000 machines and points out that their figures used "equate to 2% of the world market and only 3x the ASDA contract".

(2) "KBC Peel is the official one and only company broker so we must take their figures as near but probably in 'best case highest region' as they are the company broker." He then goes to some length to "prove" that the Peel Hunt figures are completely impractical because SEO will never make their licensing policy stick. Note that he acknowledges that the figures are 'near' but then seeks to dismantle them. He claims that, because they are the current broker, they will give 'best case highest region'. In other words, they are not honest. Again, he ignores the fact that KBC Peel stress how cautious their estimates are (Evolution state their estimates to be 'conservative').

(3) Then we get the argument that because SEO are shortly to enter commercial discussions with the suppliers that the parameters for these discussions have not been set by the contract with ASDA. I look to andysmith, or one of the other posters involved in the packaging industry, to clarify the extent to which the parameters will have been defined in the ASDA contract and what room for manoevre the suppliers will have in their commercial negotiations with SEO. However, it is clear that the parameters are defined to the extent that ASDA can say to the suppliers that savings will be made by the suppliers, whilst ASDA will reduce the contract price to them; the supplier savings must have been after allowing for SEO charges.

Now it may be that the lengthy negative arguments have fallen on deaf ears. Many have squelched this poster. My comments here are addressed to occasional visitors who may start from the premise that this poster does not have an axe to grind. I am not prepared to enter into any dialogue with him but I am prepared to attempt a balanced positon if I am requested to do so.

Eric

Still think there is a case for him to be banned or at the very least given a warning by Moneyam.