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178-8 and England have gone odds on. Will look to lay England at the start of their innings if still odds on as likely to lose a few wickets to the new ball imho

Been at the pub today and watched the cricket from there. Just a passive observer for the moment quite pleased with the performance till the news flashses started coming through.

Draw now 8.4/8.8 and still drifting

Fundy - thanks for the insights - Ah well - es la vida. All green anyway after England's early wickets but the draw is my most profitable result.

Aussies all out before tea and 5 wickets for Harmy.

Greened up my draw bet, layed Emgland at 1.8 but with a 15 tick stop loss

New version of Bet Angel due in the next couple of days. Will allow you to preset a price level to back or lay and it will fire automatically when that price is breached. It will allow you to offset trailing stops and so on against that initial position so would be perfect for trading markets like cricket.

Scrip

would have saved me approx half an hour screen watching today trying to get the right entry point

Seems a lot sunnier and very little swing early on - have closed lay on England at break even

Great stuff England!

Its about time I'm on the right side of a trade having backed at 2.6s when aussies at 64/4. Will let this run a bit longer before greening up

why oh why did i trade out lol

Why oh why did I not green up LOL

Nothing like snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is there. I obviously drunk too much for lunch so am avoiding trading this afternoon adn will just watch the cricket. Sorry, I meant the England collapse.

Cant believe that at the start of the England innings the Aussies are available at 1.20 - wouldve thought 1.07 would be about the right price. England would have to break the world record score to win a test match to win or last 8 sessions (less those where it rains). The price is that the Aussies would only win 5 times out of 6 from this position

England 11-0 are now as short as 8.0 to win - would they seriously win from here 1 time in 8 - personally dont think theyd win once in 100 goes. Have lumped on Australia

Aussies drifted to 1.5 during englands opening stand of 80ish - possibly the most patriotic biasing of a price i have seen in a long while. I lumped on at 1.29 then went out for a few hours - came back England are 4 down and the Aussies are 1.06

Nice one Steve. Haven't been on the game myself. Good to read your analysis though as I am unsure how to trade the cricket. Not that well up on the game really. Perhaps after reading more of your thoughts I might get to do my own analysis. Keep up the good work.

Cheers John

most of it is just my gut reaction have played and watched a lot of cricket over time. as far as the ashes go - i always felt the worst thing possible for England was playing the first test at Lords - much rathered it be at Edgbaston or Headingly where it would suit England more than Australia and where we have a good recent record.

Man for man they are a better side than we are though we are close enough to be competitive i will be surprised if we sustain it for long enough periods to win the series. We probably have the edge in the fast bowling dept (despite them having McGrath) but the difference between Warne and Giles as spinners is immense. As far as the batting goes they have a lot more experience than us (only Clarke of their top 7 hasnt scored a 100 against England and he made 91 yesterday - Only Vaughan of ours has scored a 100 against the Aussies).

Also there is still a big gap in the fielding ability of the two sides - in this game England have dropped 6 simple chances whilst the Aussies have dropped none and caught 3 stunners - over a game thats a difference of 9 dismissals!!!!!

Good to see Pieterson getting runs, bad to see Thorpe not playing - the one player the Aussies fear we leave out (id have picked him in front of Bell)


Assuming the weather holds I am expecting the Aussies to win 4-1 (we may restrict it to 3-2 if we are lucky) though as the series goes on very late in the summer there is likely to be some rain affected games which may reduce the final score to 3-0/3-1 though it is likely that more than a whole days play willl have to be lost for their to be a draw in this series.

Glad I greened up yesterday afternoon (just before flintoff was out so good price but not the best at 1.07). Been raining all day at Lords and forecast looks like no play today and likely to be more rain tomorrow. Currently 1.46 Aussies/3.35 Draw - if no play at all today would expect draw to shorten further to approx 2.5 if tomorrows forecast doesnt change.

Kernow - hope youve kept your draw bet running :-)

Weather forecasts look grim for the Aussies :-)

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/radar/#top

Fundy - I was green on draw and the aussies so a modest result. Onwards and upwards.