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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

cynic - 16 Mar 2009 16:06 - 4053 of 21973

as "stinky digit" observed, crude is on the move upwards once more ..... as a result gold is reversing as one would expect, but which has not been happening of late .... markets overall are interesting and i have closed all my short positions as i think they are too dangerous ..... there could easily be a stampede north if a bear squeeze gets under way

HARRYCAT - 16 Mar 2009 17:10 - 4054 of 21973

The tricky bit is now deciding whether we have reached the bottom or not, imo.
I have preserved some cash & should now probably be buying in smalll quantities, but having read in the FT that the oil cartels are not going to succeed in pushing up the crude price by much, the world is awash with scrap/2nd hand gold, unemployment is increasing alarmingly & all major currencies are under pressure with a currency war anticipated, I can't decide what to do!!! As the equity market is supposed to pick up 6 months before the economy, then perhaps it doesn't matter what the latest headline is.
Shares Mag points out that the traditional defensive stocks (Utilities, tobacco & armaments) are now losing favour, so presumably investors are now looking for the next 'hot' sector at the start of the recovery?

cynic - 16 Mar 2009 17:29 - 4055 of 21973

Harry ..... don't forget that it is sentiment that drives markets, not logic or common sense, and that the markets look at least 6 months ahead ...... there is also a fairly strong likelihood that at least a "robust spike" is picking up a head of steam, though that in itself implies a short life with a sharp reversal thereafter.

you haven't a hope in hell of picking the bottom of the market, so you'll just have to make your own judgment ..... it is not impossible, though i would guess as very unlikely, that the markets will just roar away and keep doing so, as they did last time around (or was it the time before that?)

spitfire43 - 16 Mar 2009 18:46 - 4056 of 21973

Reading investors comments and other opinions, nearly all are calling this rally a bear market rally with one more low in the low 3000s before any meaningful recovery. I agree, this is also the view I hold, but the market rarely does what everyone is expecting. When a new bull market begins most private investors have historically been caught out, and missed the early stages of recovery.

Maybe this is the start of a new bull market, I doubt it but nobody knows.

Falcothou - 16 Mar 2009 19:59 - 4057 of 21973

I'm a bit disappointed with dow had hoped it would rally to 7500 to close for a nice post close short on several indices but was not to be, nice day on the beach though!

HARRYCAT - 16 Mar 2009 21:23 - 4058 of 21973

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days as a rally in financial companies was snuffed out by concern over rising credit-card defaults, while SanDisk Corp. led a slump in technology shares. Treasuries dropped and the dollar weakened against the euro, while copper and oil advanced.

American Express Co. decreased 3.3 percent, erasing an 8.1 percent gain, after reporting higher delinquency rates for February. SanDisk, the biggest maker of flash memory cards, tumbled 11 percent as Bank of America Corp. advised selling the shares. Stocks rallied earlier after the Group of 20 vowed to clean up toxic assets, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the recession may end this year and U.K. bank Barclays Plc reported a strong start to 2009.

A relief rally cannot continue until investors have greater faith that the problems in the economy have been worked out, said William Dwyer, senior investment officer at Baltimore-based MTB Investment Advisors Inc., which oversees $24 billion.

There is some fear that maybe the rally isnt for real and investors want to make sure that it doesnt roll over and break to new lows, said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Cleveland-based Key Private Bank, which manages $22 billion. The AmEx news may have provided the excuse for rethinking how much investors should jump in.

goldfinger - 17 Mar 2009 17:05 - 4059 of 21973

One for the Index boys.....

oops didnt work.

cynic - 17 Mar 2009 17:26 - 4060 of 21973

too preoccupied to trade at the moment, but good to see oil romping away (hope it holds) and ditto Dow making a charge for glory

cynic - 17 Mar 2009 20:05 - 4061 of 21973

one way and another, a very good finish that should see some more good gains in london tomorrow .... will be nicer still if PRU's numbers and forecast are also better than expected

HARRYCAT - 17 Mar 2009 21:35 - 4062 of 21973

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks advanced, erasing more than half the loss in the Standard & Poors 500 Index since President Barack Obama took office, on an unexpected rebound in homebuilding and speculation that the Federal Reserve will outline plans to bolster the economy.

Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose at least 7.7 percent as the KBW Bank Index extended its gain since March 6 to 46 percent. KB Home, the fourth-largest U.S. homebuilder, rallied 9.3 percent and Home Depot Inc. rose 6.7 percent as housing starts unexpectedly climbed 22 percent in February, the most since 1990. Apple Inc. added 4.4 percent to help lead technology shares higher after updating its iPhone software.

The S&P 500 increased 3.2 percent to 778.12, led by a 6.6 percent gain in financial companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 178.73 points, or 2.5 percent, to 7,395.7. The Nasdaq Composite Index surged 4.1 percent. About eight stocks rose for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

The market was depressed to an extreme level because of the constant stream of bad news and events, said Mark Freeman, a money manager at Westwood Management Corp. in Dallas, which oversees $7 billion. The mere fact that the negative news has stopped allows the market to come back up to a reasonable level.

HARRYCAT - 17 Mar 2009 21:38 - 4063 of 21973

Sentiment definitely seems to be changing to a more positive stance, imo. The danger now is being left behind if markets continue to rise. Am looking forward to Strawbs finally joining the fray! ;o)

Falcothou - 17 Mar 2009 22:03 - 4064 of 21973

Well I've piled on a few overnight shorts for a gap close and may be let some run,what a difference a week makes! Oil is having a good run though is close to your 52 resistance,also inventories tomorrow and March expiry on Friday I gather. Contemplating ditching the long ETF when it hits 52. Certainly not convinced ETF's are best way to trade oil . Bought when wti at $44 and only breaks out even when it hits $47! Possibly a result of extreme contango and roll over costs but I am not impressed,no wonder Barclay's want rid of Ishares!

Falcothou - 18 Mar 2009 07:05 - 4065 of 21973

Lovely,Nikkei hit limit for 120 points,ftse at b/e

dealerdear - 18 Mar 2009 07:39 - 4066 of 21973

FWIW Houses in Notts are starting to sell. In fact with some estate agents in certain areas, alot on their books have recently sold as people jump in. Of course, it may be short lived if we have another downturn but for now things have definately taken a turn for the better.

splat - 18 Mar 2009 08:14 - 4067 of 21973

Much the same here in Manchester dealerdear.

cynic - 18 Mar 2009 08:30 - 4068 of 21973

and now watch the gov't stop everything dead in it's tracks by enforcing limitation on mortgages to 3x salary ..... i wonder if there will be any allowance made for joint salaries or if it will be main earner only.

as it is, the banks and building societies virtually refuse to offer mortages unless the buyer can put up 20/25%, which of course is out of the question for nearly all first time buyers

Falcothou - 18 Mar 2009 08:40 - 4069 of 21973

No point bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted,though try telling that to the Government. They know it, but think they are being seen to do the right thing by the voters

Kayak - 18 Mar 2009 08:45 - 4070 of 21973

Of course that is only going back to the conditions that existed 25+ years ago when some of us bought our first house and it was normal to have to put up 20% deposit and be limited to 2.5x salary.

The present government policy on the economy (including housing) is bound to fail because they are in effect throwing money at it trying to restore the conditions that caused Armageddon in the first place. There may well be a partial recovery but that will just be the prelude to another collapse.

Not that I blame the government entirely. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Either they accept that the economy was on fire and desperately needed to contract, so let it contract and lose their jobs, or they pretend that they can change everything with a few tweaks here and there and waste billions achieving precisely nothing and still lose their jobs.

Falcothou - 18 Mar 2009 08:53 - 4071 of 21973

I'll buy another house when prices are at 3 times earnings and not before.

cynic - 18 Mar 2009 08:53 - 4072 of 21973

i think your memory is faulty, or perhaps mine is ..... my first flat was bought in 1972 and i am sure just 10% deposit was required and certainly 3x salary was allowed - may actually have been 3.5x; also second income also came into play, though not with full multiple
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