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An excellent afternoon again, today I was on the matches thanks to some bribery!!

All green now on the Liverpool match so three good results this afternoon.

Scrip,

Have a problem with ABPro when the price moves too fast for it to register with Betfair. Having backed today I tried to lay as it moved against me but it missed. I am reluctant to hit it again in case the price doubles back and you end up with two lays. Today though, the price moved so fast against me that in hindsight it would have been preferable to hit it again.

Have you any thoughts or solutions?

It can depend on how fast the market is moving and where you open your bet.

If your refresh rate is slow then the market may have moved by the time you hit the button. However I tend to back or lay two ticks outside the current price (you have three options on each side on AB). So if I wanted to lay I would click the outer price without an offset and then wait or put my own price in if needed. Because you will always be filled at the highest price you do not need to back or lay at the market as the order will always default to the best price available. You may get the odd crazy fill but only if you are in an illquid market.

If you want to talk it over give me a call.

I understand. Thanks Peter.

ROFL, Fixing the radiator in the lounge, Flicked onto Bloomberg and saw FTSE close to parity. Bet the opposing way. Best five minutes work for ages. Went from a down to an up in the auction. 10% risk for a 100% return, lovely!!

Happy new year all - what a great start to 2005

Blue Endeavour in the 12.10 at Fontwell - layed at 2.62 and again at 2.72 - greened up at 4.9 !!!!!!

Lets hope it carries on like this!!!

Newcastle currently 1.95 to beat West Brom.
Liverpool 1.68 to beat Norwich.
Very tempting.

The odds on Newcastle are effectively pricing in a 1 goal head start. So the open question is whether you think West Brom will score one or more than Newcastle. Currently they are pretty dire!!

Here are some stats for you from data I am mining at the moment.

11.85% of football matches in my database had a goal in the last minute of normal time or during injury time!!! 0.78% had two!!

That sounds promising. Is there any significant weighting towards the team currently in the lead or are either as likely to score in the last minute ?

A roughly even distribution.

Had a look at the Norwich vs Liverpool match. Looking at the match odds to correct score odds, they are wrong. So I have placed a bet by either laying or backing the correct score. Overall I should end up.

For example real odds (over the long term) for Norwich to win 70-1. Odds offered on Betfair 210-1!!! Just a small value gap there!! I doubt if they will win 3-0 but one in 70 will!

Bit complex for me Scrip. I went the traditional route and won very nicely.
Was about to green up after Liverpool scored but before I did they scored again. Even better.

Since I've been doing this I've learned the only thing in football you can be
sure of is that you can't be sure of anything. What a wonderful thing greening up is.

Harlosh, IMO it's always better to stick to something simple that you understand that works and do it well than get over complicated. So I wouldn't recommended always following every thing I do!! Even I struggle sometimes!!

Sounds like you are doing just fine though. Re Liverpool, I love it when that happens. I was on the match today as well but didn't have an open position when that second goal went it.

Scrip,

Had my best ever day today. Absolutely phenominal.
Went through a rather indisciplined period where my losses outweighed my gains.
Now back on an even keel and the results speak for themselves.

88% gain TODAY!! Incredible.

John

well done mate - cracking day. Give us a call on the mobile this week (ive lost your number)

Made 170 using a 300 stake on the darts final - not sure scrip would agree with the methods but a profits a profit

TPO - Your email is bouncing.

Scrip, I'll e-mail you from another account because it's going to take a few days before the normal e-mail account works again. There was a mix-up with the domain name renewal and the first I knew about it was when the domain was suspended!

Mmmm,

Arsenal v City
Man Utd v Spurs
Chelsea v Middlesborough

I think the top three all last played at home like this on Boxing Day and made a clean sweep.

Can't see why they shouldn't do the same tonight. Any thoughters?