overgrowth
- 09 Feb 2005 20:52
Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting
in the middle of a goldmine!
This company through
their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full
advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year.
Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies
and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund
placements on behalf of the companies they represent.
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On first sight, the
fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector
makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because
it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think
again!
DGT bring new companies
to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated"
on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company
is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk
of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies
must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring
income).
Because DGT also act
as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging
placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In
addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work,
they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may
need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash
to speed growth.
Current NOMADships:
28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000
per year)
Current on-going Brokerage
agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)
For flotations, depending
on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000
to 100,000+
For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12%
of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M
though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000
!
These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances
and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk
of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back
to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket.
Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge
and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another
healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation
means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for
years, with DGT having to do very little.
New clients gained in 2005 are:
Mediazest
(NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million
Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M
Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal
Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring
Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of
Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e
Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer
Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics
Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
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EWRobson
- 20 Apr 2005 19:14
- 410 of 2787
A simpler way, perhaps, of looking at the figures. Monthly costs will now be a maximum of 100K and may be as low as 85K: assume 100K. Repeat business is clearly up a third on last year, say 40K per month. OG's figure for flotations is 50K - 100K. Lets say 60K. Then 1 flotation is needed per month for break even. We already have 7 flotations completed this year so are likely to be about +250K for first quarter. OK, market conmditions may have been exceptionally good, but what might CFPs annual target have been, given that they are on target year-to-date. Probably an annual figure in the range of 500K to 1m or a pe of 4 down to 2. Still somewhat puzzled by the conservative nature of the words used in the report. But, first, Rawlinson is the ultimate professional from his track record and language used. Second, I suspect he has a minimum budget of 12 flotations (which gives break-even) and a target of 24. I always took worst-likely-best in business forecasts and that might be 12-18-24. My guess is that he will not say that he is profitable until he has achieved the 12 flotations on the basis that they are not home until they are dry! I think I have the psychology sussed! So, given that there are at least 5 flotations in Q2, he will anounce that they have achieved break-even and the sp will respond a certain amount. By the end of Q3, with, say, 18 flotations under the belt he will start talking about a profit projection of 500k and the sp will soar. He will then deliver 1m and the sp will achieve 4p on a pe of 20.
I am going to print this out so that I will be able to say I told you so! I have 2 and a half million of these little rubies and am going to tuck them away in a 10-bagger bag. What a ramp, eh! Not really, just a well formulated forecast! What do you say, doggie friend?
Eric
stevieweebie
- 20 Apr 2005 19:52
- 411 of 2787
Eric
Did You enjoy Jackanory in your youth LOL.
I hope your tale of good fortune comes true and your doggie bag does'nt get wet on the bottom and the goodies spill out.
Regards
Stevie (Career CFP holder)
EWRobson
- 20 Apr 2005 20:23
- 412 of 2787
Hi Stevie
I like the "career holder" bit. As for Jackanory, also fan of Dougal, Epaminondas, Little Black Sambo, Paddington Bear to name just four. I particularly insist on happy endings. I can take a little pain on the way so long as I know the ending will be happy! Mind, all I am doing is interpreting Rawlinson's business plan from what he has told us; seems reasonable to me and eminently achievable with guys of this character and competence! stock dog is obviously recovering from walkies and nosh before he starts his night shift!
Eric
stockdog
- 21 Apr 2005 00:12
- 413 of 2787
Night shift reporting for duty - what, bone recovery again! That's just not fair. Where's the map?
I'm with you eric 93.75% of the way precisely - remember I said I was a 5/8 man to your 2/3 - well 0.625/0.666667 = .9375. I cannot see a downside to this stock this year. I can see a very achievable operating profit which equates roughly to the same as pre and post tax profit and especially the same as positive cashflow, there being minor depreciation on computer equipment and a little goodwill. With 500k in the bank at 31/12 and positive cashlow for this year, the net shareholders funds have to increase, as well as the EPS now that the exceptional costs are out of the way and the overhead controlled.
What's 93.75% of 4p - 3.75p, well as a CFD man you know that the real mechanics involve only betting when you know there is POTENTIAL for the upside to be at least 3 times the down side, hoping to actually REALISE about 1/2 of this. 1/2 of 10-fold increase to 3.75p from 0.00375p is a 5-fold increase to 1.875p which is about as high as I can see into the future until we get there. That's enought to be dreaming about in about 30 seconds from now.
Now I'll tell thee an old fashioned story
That Gran'father used to relate
Of a joiner and buildin' contractor
His name it were Sam Oglethwaite
Who remembers Stanley Holloway's Three Ha'pence A Foot about Sam who would not sell Noah his maple "to furnish the sides of his bunk" on the ark at less than the asking price even though the water came right up to his chin when standing on top of Blackpool Tower ("a comical figure 'e cut"!).
Well I'm as stubborn as old Sam O. I've made my pitch at 1.3p or thereabouts by Xmas. Eric is evidently even more of a romantic at heart than me.
But, this relies upon achieving continuing new clients and transactions as set out by me above. Easy on paper, but damned elusive to close business sometimes, don't I know it, especailly if the market apetite for AIM stocks dwindels with the lack of confidence in the DOW and FTSE scheduled to start from mid-May onwards.
Not that it stopped me from topping up again today at a very keen price.
Night night everyone
SD
butane
- 21 Apr 2005 12:57
- 414 of 2787
Director buy..........
CFA Capital Group plc
2. Name of director
Anthony Paul Rawlinson
3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of holding
of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficial interest
or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's
spouse or children under the age of 18 or in respect of a non-beneficial
interest
As in 2 above
4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them (if notified)
Anthony Paul Rawlinson
5. Please state whether notification relates to a person(s) connected with the
director named in 2 above and identify the connected person(s)
N/a
6. Please state the nature of the transaction. For PEP transactions please
indicate whether general/single co PEP and if discretionary/non discretionary
Purchase
7. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired
1,500,000
corehard
- 21 Apr 2005 13:02
- 415 of 2787
Flippin 'eck butane... you must be constantly watching !!!
butane
- 21 Apr 2005 13:06
- 416 of 2787
Just topped up...150k @ .39p
moneyplus
- 21 Apr 2005 13:40
- 417 of 2787
Price moving up nicely--looking promising!
stockdog
- 21 Apr 2005 14:42
- 418 of 2787
Tony Rawlinson obviously following my lead yesterday at .01p more than I paid! No wonder he didn't want to give too bullish a report in thed accounts.
I feel much comforted by being in good company.
SD
ptholden
- 21 Apr 2005 14:47
- 419 of 2787
Nice to see TW buying another chunk. I would guess that the 1500000 'sell' this afternoon is actually his buy reported late. So good positive volumes again today. I note from the Shares Mag that the Intradem Films placing is at 4.3 mill. I cannot remember what the valuation of recent placings has been, but this seems a little more than has been the norm for CFP, (bigger fees!!).
Regards
PTH
butane
- 21 Apr 2005 14:53
- 420 of 2787
ptholden,
The 1.5 mill buy by TR WAS reported yesterday at 16:10 as a 'T' trade, the 1.5 mill today is an 'O' trade so it is probably a sell.
The Intandem placing is at 1.25mill (see below, taken from the LSE site)
The New Issues List is a list of all new companies which are either seeking admission to one of our markets or have been admitted to trading within the last seven days. This list provides basic information on the company, terms of the offer and its sponsors.
Offer details | Company details | Advisor details
Further information about the terms of the offer.
INTANDEM FILMS PLC
Offer details
Expected offer price (p):
Expected size of offer (M): 1.25m
Expected retail portion (if any):
Expected Market Cap (post issue)(M):
Method of issue:
Expected first date of trading: 22/04/2005
Market: AIM
Proceeds to be used for:
Location of address at which admission document will be available: CITY FINANCIAL ASSOCIATES LIMITED POUNTNEY HILL HOUSE 6 LAURENCE POUTNEY HILL LONDON EC4R 0BL
Date at which admission document will be available:
ptholden
- 21 Apr 2005 15:07
- 421 of 2787
Butane,
Stand corrected, although I don't remember a 1.5mill Sell going through yesterday. Wonder why the Shares Mag do not check the information available before going to press!
PTH
butane
- 21 Apr 2005 16:28
- 422 of 2787
Could that 1.1 mill 'T' trade at .4p be another director buy?.....hopefully, another RNS tomorrow.
EWRobson
- 21 Apr 2005 17:30
- 423 of 2787
A good thing about Rawlinson is that he is a throughgoing professional who has not yet grown fat on high city salaries. Why else would he buy only 1.5million, 50% higher than my minimum to prove CFPhood! He also, of course, has another 10M options exercisable at 25p with a total of 40m. Happy with that! All part of an increasingly optimistic scenario. I am, of course, 20% more optimisitc that sd based on his figures but I think mine are pretty well in line with APR.
Eric
stockdog
- 21 Apr 2005 20:58
- 425 of 2787
Eric with APR's purchase of CFPhood+50% I reckon you only now have a 6.67% premium on optimism over me - funnily enough the same factor I mentioned yesterday, 2/3 v 5/8. I'll bet your glass of rioja will be a damn sight more than 2/3 full tonight and several times at that!
The buy certainly adds immense support to the likelihood that revenues for remainedr of year are much more achieveable than I have allowed for in my cautious estimates. Overhead costs and value per cleint and transaction, I am pretty sure I have got on a workable average. It was the sustainability of revenues that was always the crucial parameter. I think Tony has handed that credibility to us on a plate today.
This and SEO are my two major holdings for now. I still owe you lunch for the tip next time you're in town.
I tray lid came to market (brokered by CFP)
2 tray lids came to market (brokered by CFP)
3 tray lids came to market . . .
It'll be easy to sleep tonight.
SD
ptholden
- 21 Apr 2005 21:43
- 426 of 2787
SD
Considering I pointed Eric in the direct of CFP, can I have half of the lunch you are going to buy Eric?
PTH
stockdog
- 21 Apr 2005 23:29
- 427 of 2787
You'd be more than welcome. I'll buy Eric's and he can buy yours. Now who can I recommend it to to get my lunch paid for, hmmm?
Since my nickname for CFP is Cats For Pudding (Eric remembers why) it seems appropriate to consider a lunch for fans of the stock in London when it reaches, what, 2.5p as a counterpart to the SEO drinks in Doncaster at 50p.
SD
butane
- 22 Apr 2005 08:28
- 429 of 2787
Intandem ticker is = IFM