The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

morning tokyo,..........or is it `top-up tokyo`!,
did you manage to get in in time?,
dexter

at least it aint dropping too badly yet, make up for some of yesterdays losses...

spoke too soon, all the way back down, sells have passed buys...

morning dexter01 - "top-up tokyo" what a cool user name that would have been!!
fortunately or unfortunately as my address is overseas I have to use a bank transfer to credit my comdirect account not my visa card so it takes two working days to clear earliest possible trade date - Friday morning (has something to do with new money laundering laws)
I'm pretty sure that this share is gonna be up and down like a yoyo for the next couple of weeks, but after David Horgan comes back from Iraqi (2-3 weeks I reckon), I will no longer be able to afford to buy this stock!!For me anything under 150 pence at the moment is a bargain
All IMHO, but I've posted enough evidence over the couple of weeks to back up my opinion on this one


Tokyo

Tokyo:

You might be interested to learn from an earlier post that all the action is in fact in Ireland, and that is where Mr Hogan is! See earlier post from CG. So we may have some announcements very soon!

Just rang head office again in Ireland and asked them to comment on

"Iraqi reps from Oil ministry are in Ireland to sign contracts with Iraq tenders" that I saw on a web site



They said
1) they are connected with Oil ministry but not reps
2) they are over for training ( explain why they are visiting geology dept's in main uni's
3) D Horgan is going back next weekend for meeting for oil ministry

why would they be doing some training without any commitment?? looks promising

CG



CG in Ireland

thanks CG that's what my earlier post was referring to, I knew DH was going over to Iraq next weekend (this I feel can only be to sign the contracts, they have been and are still negiotating on!)

I know the waiting game is killing us, but if I have to wait another 3 weeks for an extra 50-100 thousand pounds then I'll wait
thanks

Tokyo

But i want a new car now... Tee hee!

So Tokyo, given CG's clarification you would suggest we increase our LONG position...but by how much?

johngtudor - I'm just telling you that I am happy to increase my position, I don't like suggesting what other people should or shouldn't do, go over the posts for the last week or so on this board, and do what you feel comfortable with, I've been holding for quite a while so can afford to ride out the ups & downs which I'm sure are coming over the next couple of weeks, I'd would suggest however that you do not buy any shares on T10 trades, as then the pressure will really be on, I feel comfortable holding and adding where I can

Tokyo

Support @ 120 I'm in for another 10k @ 122.7

Tokyo: Thanks your feedback. Please clarify 'T10 trades'?

afternoon all,
tokyo,
do you buy on-line or over the phone?,i`m not sure but i think that it `s slightly different rules,unless the stock market is a different beast.
i just totted up my situation,my average cost per share is only 38.95p!!,just wish i had more dosh when started.i`m new to this only started nov 03,and by my research PET isn`t the only co.that can go sky high,short term anyway.plenty have done it this year alone.
not teaching anyone to suck eggs,but it might be worth checking FOGL when it floats next week,at 40p i think,it just seams at the moment that you only have to mention oil and gas,and china and the sp price goes mad!.another one thats cheap is Chaco resources(suspended at the mo.)i think this might be worth a quick in and out IMO only,
regards,
dexter

Hi Tokyo, been reading your comments with interest, personally I think we should all stay she's gonna blow soon!

Havent had the 30p luxury but still 52p fine for me!

Yours Tooney

(Gatwick Area, Sussex)

johngtudor - T10 where you buy shares on credit and settle after 10 days, there are T3, T10 & T25 accounts afraid I don't use them, so my knowledge stops there.

dexter01 - I buy on-line through comdirect have found them to be the best when trading, apart from my visa card problem, which I'll sort out when I'm back in december. dexter01 - where are you located in the uk?

over on the advfn thread they are talking about a huge piss up if PET goes through the roof, I'll be back in december and would be up for a piss up & meeting some fellow investors, perhaps flying over to Ireland for the weekend. What do you guys think?

Tokyo

tokyo,
kings lynn area in norfolk,you know,where they interbreed so much it`s not that they don`t know their arse from their elbow,their elbow sprouts from their arse.!!!!!!
dexter

wow evening all - nice little roller coaster ride so far, to add a little bit more fun to the mix over here, we have just had an earthquake, my whole study just shook, a little more than a tremor that one!!!!

Tokyo

So maybe that tremor was in some cosmic way linked to PET, as the rise last week was the tremor, and soon there will be a full blown quake... Not for you of course, well in a monetary way, i suppose it could be you, anyway... I'll get my coat...

Hi,

I do not know what I imagined is wrong or right, just guess sth of PETs fair market value if it at least gets one risk-sharing contract.

Below is my calculation. I make it as quite conservative because I do not know so much actually. Just make a quick and simple calculation for a rough reference.

Project tender 1

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
oil/day m barrel 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Oil price (US$40/barrel) 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Daily m 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Year X 365 days (m) 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973
Net Profit 60% (m) 60% 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584

PET profit share with at only 10% (m) 10% 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4

P/E ratio as moderate level of 18
Discount rate 1/ 18 = 5.6% 5.6%
Discount factor 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.81 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.65 0.61 0.58 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.47
PV (m) 58.40 55.33 52.41 49.66 47.04 44.57 42.22 40.00 37.89 35.90 34.01 32.22 30.52 28.92 27.40


Total NPV (m) 616.48
Total diluted share (m) 65

Share price (100 p) 9.48




I do not know the deal content at all. Just imagine sth based on the information everyone knows now.

So, if one risk-sharing contract (say 10% of profit share), market fair value shall be 950p, if 2, shall be 1900p, if 3, shall be 2800P. But any extra conditions can change this to become more lucrative if oil price set in this simple sheet is not $40, but $45, if profit share is not 10%, but 15% ; if .

But if you take risks factors (discount ratio 20% as suggested in their 2004 slides), the value will still be 500p at least for each tender granted. It is the half of its market fair value calculated above.

The above is totally my own guess and imagination, not the real. So what you think? I know my sheet is too simple but at least I shall say I try to work out what the roof shall be in PETs case, am I?

i think that's true...