rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Cyners from our pal across the road.....

Buy Chaucer Holdings
Argues the Bard of the Boleyn, Lucian Miers

Chaucer (CHU) is a Lloyds insurance and reinsurance company which has had its share of problems. Its underwriting performed creditably in 2008 generating 33 million of profits. This in what was generally a bad year for insurance losses . The problems lay in the investment portfolio of 1.2 billion which sustained losses of 71 million owing to injudicious forays into Hedge funds, equities and corporate bonds. This resulted in an overall loss for the year of 26 million, its first loss since 2001.

The company recently raised 75 million of share capital to shore up the balance sheet and to allow it to increase its underwriting capacity to 546 million from 519 million in 2008. Premium rates are expected to harden in the next few years and the company is upbeat about the future and confident of paying at least 4p in dividends for the next two years which gives the shares at 40p an attractive yield of 10%

The investment portfolio has also been substantially de-risked with an exit from equities, redemptions of Hedge fund assets and a commitment to less sloppy and more cautious practices in the future.

The company has also announced that it is in discussions which may or may or not lead to a bid for the company. Press speculation suggests around 60p per share.

Insurance is self evidently a risky business but with asset backing of 52p per share, net gearing of 26% ,a handy yield, and its investment strategy in order, Chaucer, whilst certainly no ten-bagger looks a good play on an upswing in the insurance cycle whether or not it stays independent. Buy at 40p.

Finally, for those who have been wise enough to follow my tips to date, I advise buying back a short in Capital and Regional (CAL) at 18.5p a fall of 82% since I tipped it as a short at 106p in October 2008.

I have also taken the first loss of my tips to date by selling Severfield Rowen (SFR) at my advised stop loss price of 140p: a 14% loss . The shares now trade at 137p. I still like the company and await the prelims on Wednesday 25th March with interest. I will update on this one this week.

Filing late on Tuesday 24th, Lucian Miers aka the Bard of the Boleyn is one of the UKs most feared short sellers.

Posted by Lucian Miers on Tue Mar 24, 11:45 AM in Comment

Yanks are up 180 and were down -4.

Typical.

What is wrong with this country........................... no please dont bother.....sigh.

for all that, FTSE is holding the important 3900 level, so provided Dow manages to behave, FTSE should wake up within the next day or two - i hope, as that should mean strong performance by the miners and oilies

Fingers crossed then cyners.

have you seen the tip above from Lucian??.

thanks stinky .... no i had not noticed your post .... have now put on my watchlist and shall contemplate o'night

please note from 11/3/09 ......
The Board of Chaucer Holdings has responded to a statement issued by Novae that it has ended merger discussions by stating that discusions are continuing with other parties.

Wall Street trying to misbehave, whioch is all very dull ..... key level to watch is +/-7550, but currently about 100 above that

If it keeps falling there will be a tasty gap on ftse, dax,and cac at the close.

presumably to go long FTSE(?) o'night

just noticed that Dow dumped to 7550, which was meant to be a support, and has certainly proved as much, at least pro tem

Affirmative though only trade it from close preferably 805pm though Dow seems to have rallied so probably won't bother, will see in 10 minutes

Went long DOW @ 19:10

silly times innit! ..... i went long Dow too in a modest way at 7559 but shall close that out in a mo for a very useful profit considering the outlay

and gold up but oil down - strange strange

Well I stood watching that rally into close like a lemon instead of trading it like you sensible folk,not much of an overnight gap now.The last hour reversal, that old chestnut! Personally feel it's only worth trading indices in first and last hour as they get too confusing in between! Might put a cheeky ftse long order in overnight at 3830

would be happier if FTSE had held 3900, but maybe worth a punt with some sort of stop

Oh bugger, forgot about summertime over the pond. Can't close my long

:O(

stinky digit (especially) ...... depending on one's mindset, it could be argued either that FTSE is consiolidating with a view to breaking firmly through the 3900 barrier and onwards and upwards, or that 3900 is proving too tough a hurdle and that FTSE will fall back below the support of 3750.

on the basis of the last couple of days, my inclination is towards the first scenario.

Pony.

def a good day at the races today!

FTSE really is underperforming at the moment relative to Dow ...... Dow is currently +150 at 7900 while FTSE is staggering along barely +20 on the close ..... if Dow stays strong through close, the odds are surely ever shortening on a stellar day for FTSE tomorrow.

as i am my own master for the evening, may have a dabble on the Dow and try not to lose money!

Youve been saying that now cyners for the last 4 days.

My feeling is that politics have taken over the agenda for the City and it looks like our Gordon is going to have a tough time next week with all the World leaders, plus lets not forget we start the US reporting season starting monday onwards so it could be bad tactics to be top heavy going into next week.

Im sure all the City wide boys are aware.

Daily bets in the morning chaps, dont get caught holding the baby going into next week and being the wrong side of the market.

Of course I speak with limited knowledge of indicies as i have previously declared, but Ive just got this feeling after the last few days....