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Northern Rock (NRK)     

irlee57 - 13 Aug 2007 09:03

any comments, thoughts, on this stock.

cynic - 26 Sep 2007 13:54 - 414 of 1029

indeed .... but though there are certain bullish noises from a few interested or even partisan parties, i really (and truly!) cannot believe there is anything other than tears for the shareholders

Balmoral - 26 Sep 2007 14:00 - 415 of 1029

cynic - me too - I'm more concerned about it going into administration if a solution can not be found - then I'd be truly busted not able to close the short!

cynic - 26 Sep 2007 14:02 - 416 of 1029

not sure what happens in those circumstances .... do you have any definitive info from your broker on same?

Balmoral - 26 Sep 2007 14:13 - 417 of 1029

cynic - will check with gni

Kayak - 26 Sep 2007 14:17 - 418 of 1029

There are special provisions enabling buying to close shorts even though shares are suspended. Basically you would agree a price with a market maker or the spreadbetter.

cynic - 26 Sep 2007 14:22 - 419 of 1029

thanks Kayak ..... knew it would have to be closable somehow

Big Al - 26 Sep 2007 14:22 - 420 of 1029

Not sure it's wise to be short with bids in the offing and trying to second guess a bid size. A bit dangerous?

cynic - 26 Sep 2007 14:26 - 421 of 1029

yup ..... but will leave to run for the moment at least, even though my gut feeling is that any bid will be worth no more than 2p!

halifax - 26 Sep 2007 14:28 - 422 of 1029

Cant imagine any financial institution making a bid before examining NRK's books.

Big Al - 26 Sep 2007 14:50 - 423 of 1029

Goes without saying halifax.

To start a wider discussion, what is the value of NRK? People are bandying around extremely small numbers, but the value of the loan book must be substantial. Is there anyone around here who is good at the fundie stuff? I freely admit I'm crap and always have been. I mean they have to pay interest on what they've borrowed on the money markets too, but similarly they've got it coming in from the mortgagees who by all accounts are merrily paying what they are due every month. I could go on, but was wondering others views.

Anyone enlighten me?

Guscavalier - 26 Sep 2007 15:09 - 424 of 1029

I wonder if you should put the question to RAB Capital Big Al, they must of made some assessment having invested some 5% of its fund in NRK.

Balmoral - 26 Sep 2007 15:10 - 425 of 1029

Big Al - NRK has 113bn of mortgages which need to be sold at a discount - if sold at only a 5% discount - that's a loss of 5.65bn - they have just over 2.bn of net assets so the bank would then be insolvent




Balmoral - 26 Sep 2007 15:31 - 426 of 1029

response from broker re holding short positions if share suspended ...

Generally, it depends on the reason for suspension - and whether any explanations have been given. Risk make an assessment and almost always, the stock goes to full 100% Initial Margin. It is suspended at whatever the Exchange suspends it at, and then we wait until the stock either comes back to the market or disappears.

If a stock goes into administration then it would almost certainly go into suspension and again, 100% IM etc....would apply. But, since administration would most likely mean Bankruptcy, there could be other difficulties. It can be difficult or impossible to close the position, and if one could find a seller to match your short out, then it would require LSE approval. Also we would have to wait on the Administrators to see whether there are any other liabilities.

Falcothou - 26 Sep 2007 15:33 - 427 of 1029

The knock-on effect from the US sub-prime market shows no sign of letting up in Japan.
In the last 7 days Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank has gone belly up and Bonsai bank announced plans to cut some of its branches. Yesterday is was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song while today shares in Kamikaze bank were suspended after they nose-dived and 500 back office staff at Karate Bank got the chop. Analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi bank and staff fear they could get a raw deal.

hlyeo98 - 26 Sep 2007 15:36 - 428 of 1029

Sounds like Northern Rock has turned into Rotten Pork

cynic - 26 Sep 2007 15:38 - 429 of 1029

Falco .... you should be ashamed of yourself! .... lol!!

steveo - 26 Sep 2007 15:44 - 430 of 1029

Good for a laugh Falco like it..

Big Al - 26 Sep 2007 15:56 - 431 of 1029

LOL Falco.

Cheers Balmoral. It still begs the question Gus proposed. I'm also uncertain as to why they need to sell at a discount.

hewittalan6 - 26 Sep 2007 16:04 - 432 of 1029

Re the value of NRK mortgage book.
Think of it as a bond. ie it has a face value and a coupon, though the coupon is likely to be only just over the BoE base rate.
Add to this mix that the risk is higher now due to faorecasts of possible house value reductions and that NRK often lent more than a property was valued at.
Now add in that the income from these loans has to be collected from various sources, not just one, and the costs incurred from that and the legal expenses of protecting your investment through the courts if necessary, and that much of the book will never reach maturity, as the loan is repaid early at the borrowers discretion and you can now try to value it.
Discount of 5%?
Probably much higher than that.
Alan

cynic - 26 Sep 2007 16:07 - 433 of 1029

AL ..... because this is pretty much a fire sale, so why on earth would anyone want or be prepared to pay full whack?
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