Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

3

No Good...:-)

Just a test to see if it works.

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Forex - Dollar lifted by hedge funds purchases - UPDATE 4
AFX


NEW YORK (AFX) -- The dollar was higher against other major currencies late Wednesday, benefiting from hedge fund sales of the euro for the U.S. currency.

In recent trades the euro was down 0.04% at $1.2238 and the dollar up 0.6% at 107.24 yen.

The dollar, which was lower against the euro during morning trade, later reversed course to trade higher, lifted largely by hedge fund plays, according to Brian Dolan, head of currency research at Gain Capital.

'There's no real news prompting this,' Dolan said. 'It's just a market dynamic. The euro tested the $1.2340 to $1.2350 level, and then triggered some stop losses.'

In morning trade the dollar was weakened against the euro by recent remarks by Federal Reserve officials viewed by some as hints that the Fed could be nearing the end of its rate tightening cycle, according to Kathy Lien, chief fundamental analyst at Forex Capital Markets.

An end to the rate hikes would undermine the dollar.

Fed chief Alan Greenspan failed to address the matter directly earlier in the week in a satellite appearance at a Beijing monetary conference.

But his assertion that recent Treasury yields weakness could 'credibly' be linked to economic weakness helped build the case for a softer rates policy.

Greenspan will testify Thursday to a joint Congressional committee and those remarks will be carefully monitored for more clues about the rates outlook, Lien said.

The market is also waiting for the Bank of England's decision on interest rates Thursday. The U.K. central bank is widely expected to hold rates at 4.75%, with expectations growing of a rate cut in the second half.

The pound lost early gains to trade down 0.07% at $1.8273..

Sales at U.S. wholesalers bounced back in April after tepid sales in the previous three months, the Commerce Department reported. Sales rose 1.5% in April, the biggest gain in 13 months.

Meanwhile, inventories increased 0.8%. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.18 from 1.19. Economists were expecting inventories to rise about 0.5% in April

Japanese data

In Asia, a key gauge of the current state of Japan's economy fell below the boom-or-bust line of 50.0 in April, the government said Wednesday.

Japan's Cabinet Office said in a preliminary report that its index of leading indicators, predicting economic developments about six months ahead, came in at 25.0 in April. The index of coincident economic indicators, measuring current conditions, stood at 44.4.

An index reading above 50.0 is considered a sign of economic expansion, while a figure below that line indicates contraction.

'This suggests that the near-term outlook remains weak, although it appears to be more a case of a loss of momentum rather than an outright decline,' economist Peter Morgan at HSBC Securities told clients.

The index of lagging indicators, measuring economic performance in the recent past, was at 75.0.

Bank of Japan data showed Wednesday that lending by Japanese banks fell 2.7% in May from a year earlier, the same pace as April's revised 2.7% fall. May's decrease extends the length of consecutive declines to 7 years and 4 months.



This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

Hil:

No it didn't (work, that is). Not sure why, haven't really investigated.

D

These are the proper links, MM.

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MM,

It looks like they changed the hyphen linking the date within the URL for an underscore ....... probably to stop people like me linking.

I'll bet that they alternate from one day to the next between hyphens and underscores.

Builders all dropping today. Presumably a possibilty that someone thinks the rate will rise?

Hil, Quite probably. Tight b*ggers.

Meanwhile, I noticed this:

Log on to http://www.cantos.com for:

Dollar to plunge on deficit fears
- Video interview with Robin Bew, Chief Economist, EIU
- Robin Bew warns that the dollar is set for further falls during the next 12-14 months over concerns about the growing US current account deficit. He adds that Chinese economic growth will slow over the next 24 months, whilst in Europe, Germany faces further woes and the Italian outlook is "particularly bleak".

I bet Robin Bew's fun at a party.

SC: Time to remind ourselves of John Maynard Keynes famous last words?

"I wish I had drunk more Champagne."

Another test.

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- EURUSD - Ratio Flips to Net Longs, Signaling More Losses To Come In the EURUSD - GBPUSD - Ratio Remains Unchanged With Both Longs and Shorts Increasing Positions - USDCHF - Ratio Flips to Net Shorts, Confirming EURUSD Sell-off Signal - USDJPY - Open Interest Unchanged But Net Positioning Becomes Increasingly Short Historical Charts Of Speculative Positioning The ratio of longs to shorts in the EURUSD is 1.24, which is within the extreme +/-3 range.  The ratio has flipped back to net longs after moving to net shorts last week.  The change in positioning was a result of a 12.9% slide in open interest.  Shorts reduced holdings by 40% while longs increased their positions by 36%.  Taken as a contrarian indicator, the flip in the EURUSD ratio suggests that the currency pair could extend its move lower. The ratio of longs to shorts in the GBPUSD is 1.36, which is within our extreme +/- 3 range.  The ratio itself remains unchanged with only a 3.4% increase in overall positioning.  Both longs and shorts increased their holdings modestly (3.5% and 3.4% respectively).  Prices ended the week not far from last week’s levels.  Although economic data over the past week has mostly surprised to the downside, the Bank of England is keeping the market guessing with their neutral stance.  We will continue to wait for a flip in the ratio to net shorts before calling a bottom in the GBPUSD. The ratio of longs to shorts in the USDCHF is –1.25, which is within the extreme +/- 3 range.  The ratio has flipped from net longs to net shorts, suggesting that we could see a move higher in USDCHF.  In fact, we are beginning to see that already this morning after the 5am data as the dollar rallies on the back of Greenspan’s comments.  Open interest fell 3.6% with long positions cut by 16% and short positioning rising by 9%.  The fact that both the USDCHF ratio and the EURUSD ratio flipped could be a strong signal for a contra-move in both currency pairs.   The ratio of longs to shorts in the USDJPY is –2.11, which is within the extreme +/- 3 level.  Overall positioning was pretty much unchanged over the past week even though the market became increasingly short.  Long positions were cut by 7.8% while short positions increased by 5% as USDJPY retraces over the past week.  We are basically looking for 2 things in USDJPY at this point, which is either an extreme level in positioning less than –3 or a flip in the ratio before the data can give us any more telling information.  For the time being, as a contrarian indicator, the SSI suggests that USDJPY prices should have a bias to the upside.

Hil:

Excellent, thank you.

D.

Euro


We are continually amazed by the razor sharp accuracy of the FXCM Speculative Sentiment report. Released this morning, the report indicated that speculative positioning flipped from shorts to longs over the past week. The data was for 5am EDT, which makes the flip a perfect contrarian indicator for todays price action. We typically do not report on positioning till the next week, but as of 1pm EDT today, speculators flipped back to net shorts from net longs (ratio shifted from positive 1.24 to minus 1.15). This suggests that the EURUSD could rebound even further from current levels. USDCHF positioning also moved back to net longs (1.10) from net shorts 1.25, providing a further confirmation that we may be in store for a rally in the EURUSD and corresponding sell-off in USDCHF. Meanwhile, the ECBs monthly report echoed recent comments made by President Trichet, which is that even though inflation remains well contained for the time being, the central bank will need to continue to be vigilant, especially since oil prices are back on the rise.

Hils
Been away for the last few days - holed up in the Fens.

You seem to have used the opportunity to post some great stuff - does everyone want me to go day-jobbing again?

mg. In the Fens? Hope you've got your wellies! Anywhere near me at Wisbech?

Welcome back, Oh Papal One. So have you gone short Dollar this morning like the nice contrarian people at FXCM suggested?

Manky Shins
Nah - Iza bin long da cabul from 200 :)

Maggot
Only pretend Fens - Peterborough

mg X1V

Nice one, mg, although my charts say that you should have been out of it 45 minutes ago. NAG as the Poison Dwarf would say.