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Mediwatch - Watch them rocket in 2005 !!! (MDW)     

overgrowth - 12 May 2005 22:21

Mediwatch is a small company destined to become a much bigger fish by the time this year is out. Mediwatch are already a market leader in urological medical diagnostics equipement and are currently exporting their products throughout the UK, Canada, Europe, India and Japan. That doesn't leave much of the globe left for them to capture - until you remember the good ol' US and China. These are the two massive markets which are destined to be added to MDW's export client portfolio by the end of 2005.

The company is currently heavily undervalued. This is probably because Mediwatch's speciality is not a very glamourous business to be in as their equipment is used extensively to diagnose prostate cancer in men and other nasty urological conditions affecting both men and women. However, don't let that put you off investing in these guys. This is big business and is growing at an exponential rate as more and more people globally become health-aware as they get older.

Mediwatch normally supply their products through to global markets via distribution agreements. They already have the best of distribution partners in the well known US medical distributor CR Bard who supply Canada and Europe and GE Medical who supply Japan. The UK business is handled by Mediwatch's own dedicated sales team.

US FDA approval was gained for MDW's products at the start of last year, however a whole year of US legal wrangling meant that they were unable to seek a suitable partner for the crucial distribution agreement until the start of this year. This distribution agreement is expected by the board to have a "significant effect" on the share price so they are reluctant to give any clues as to when it will be signed, sealed and delivered. The general consensus is that this US distribution agreement will be announced in July/August. In China and Hong Kong, MDW have done things the other way round. They have set up distribution agreements with major Asian medical equipment distributors and have stock already out there waiting to sell into the markets - all they are waiting for is SDA approval (which is a "rubber stamp") from the Chinese authorities - this can take anything up to 12 months to come through and MDW applied during Autumn 2004 - so even more good news coming soon this year. Epidemiological data from British Association of Urology conference last year: On average 30-45% of all men between the age of 50 and 70 have at least one PSA test per year in the US / Italy / Australia.

If that's not enough to convince you to invest a few hard earned coppers in MDW, they are also developing a PSA stick test product (PSAWatch) which is revolutionary and causing some excitement in medical circles. This product can also be adapted (at very low cost) for a whole spectrum of medical disciplines from Cardiology to Veterinary Practice! This product is likely to be released in the next few weeks. Philip Stimpson the CEO has said that this product is going to be their "gold mine" - I'm sure it will prove to be ours too.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=MDW&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=MDW&Si

overgrowth - 29 Jun 2005 17:48 - 415 of 1497

Guys - some encouraging news from williedoc on advfn:

"Last call today. There is another PSA stick testing machine on offer by another company. I had not heard anything about it until now. BUT - before you get all depressed and things - check out the following. The MDW machine costs about 1000. The other company's costs 7500 NOT INCLUDING a mini-centrifuge. The cost of consumables - i.e. the kit need for each test is 3.50 for each MDW stick, and 700 for the other company. SEVEN HUNDRED QUID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lastly - the MDW stick requires simply a drop of blood on to the stick then shove it in the reader. Bosh - that's it. The other one requires a small volume of blood - which goes into a micro-centrifuge. You then spin it for a few minutes and pipette out the serum into the machine. Can you for one moment imagine a busy clinician ****ing about with centrifuges and pipettes. This is pure b*llocks. AND ****ing expensive. It is absolutely no competition at all.
Anyway - must dash. Hoping for good things tomorrow."

ptholden - 29 Jun 2005 18:33 - 416 of 1497

og

Sensible comments.

Particularly annoyed with myself as I predicted only a week or so ago that I expected to see MDW retrace to the 11 / 11.5p level. Having done the research and TA I really should learn to trust the conclusions that I arrive at, rather then being stampeded by unfathomable Market Maker activity and a rising SP. I seem able to take a dispationate view when asked for an opinion, but when it comes to my own actions, am far to impulsive. I shall have to train myself better!!

Assuming that the SP follows the rising trend I would now expect this to bounce around about the 10.5 to 11.0p level. Will all depend on whatever news is released before the weekend.

Good luck

pth

andysmith - 29 Jun 2005 19:24 - 417 of 1497

Thanks OG & Pete, I am staying long-term investor with MDW, now I have my funds I am trying to gauge the top-up. Happy I added a few at 11.39p last week as an announcement would have seen it take off. Will read RNS first thing and decide when to add. Have to say I don't really like the "betting" that takes prices artificially high, it makes it difficult for "investors" to judge the best buying opportunities.

jnknill - 29 Jun 2005 22:16 - 418 of 1497

pth, I think maybe you are being a bit hard on yourself. The point being that in my time investing in MDW you have always been prepared to trade ideas, data etc., even if sometimes you know that what you say is probably not what the recipient is wanting to hear and to be honest, on this latest retracement I think quite a lot of investors/traders have been caught out, myself included!! I hope you don,t think that I am in any way being patronising, just feel that we will win out in the end. You, in particular, work too bloody hard at it not to and the likes of me are only thankful that we can bounce queries off you . Tomorrow,hopefully, will start the ball rolling and who knows, we could yet be in an envious position(e.g. What if MM,s decide to mark-up prior to bell?)Rgds.

ptholden - 29 Jun 2005 22:42 - 419 of 1497

jnk

No not patronising at all, many thanks for your support, it is appreciated. I seem to be having a bad week. Two of the dogs I cleared out recently have now shown some signs of recovery, whilst stocks I have chosen to keep have chosen to be red for most of the week. Tough old game this sometimes. Hopefully, whether my decision to buy at 11 or 13p will be irrelevant fairly soon. I, like many others do get fed up with the advantage that the MMs have over us PIs. Their license to report late trades and manipulate the sells & buys leaves us all trying to guess what is going on. I understand why these rules are in place, but IMHO it doesn't make it right!!

Hopefully a better day tomorrow, both with shocks & scares and the golf course.

pth

markusantonius - 29 Jun 2005 22:57 - 420 of 1497

It is a bad week for you, Pete. Hey, you told me to get in these even at 13p!

Get your drives going off the tee again and then you can give me some more top tips!! Are you still sulking after the 7 in side bets I won off you in Monday's Golf Event? Was it 5 or 6 points you scored on the Front 9, mate? :o) :o)

ptholden - 29 Jun 2005 23:24 - 421 of 1497

markus

Actually you took 8 off me but took off still owing me a quid! That's what's really upsetting me.

Seriously though MDW should be good value even at 13p, assuming all goes well! (No shit Sherlock!!) I'm pissed off that I got my timing wrong. Just because they took a hit today doesn't make them a bad investment. Oh and don't forget you would have made a 40% profit within 10 days if you had taken my advice on DGT. Best we don't mention GUS.

:-(()) LoL

markusantonius - 29 Jun 2005 23:35 - 422 of 1497

....................ggggrrhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!

chocolat - 30 Jun 2005 00:03 - 423 of 1497

Thanks for the informative posts, guys - a great help! I don't trade shares at the moment, but I've been holding these for quite a while, based on what I hoped was good judgement. Whatever happens, I won't be shaken out tomorrow. :S

smudge1004 - 30 Jun 2005 06:40 - 424 of 1497

good luck guys, only another 20 mins to go!!

ptholden - 30 Jun 2005 07:15 - 425 of 1497

Great, no results!!

ptholden - 30 Jun 2005 07:41 - 426 of 1497

Results out now, essentially a 1m loss and no confirmation of Medtronic deal or distribution rights in China or Hong Kong. Be surprsied if we don't see a further fall today. Clearly, the City knew what was coming yesterday, although you may argue that fall is already in the SP, but I doubt it.

pth

andysmith - 30 Jun 2005 07:44 - 427 of 1497

The wait goes on, do we expect a drop as the speculators from 9p take their profits?? If so I'll wait to top-up and get a lot more for my money.
Nobodys having my shares, when any distribution deal is announced this will be an absolute money-maker. Prostate cancer is the biggest problem for blokes and there are a lot of us!!

petralva - 30 Jun 2005 07:49 - 428 of 1497

if they carry on spending huge amounts on r&d we'll never see any profit at this rate!

ashwellt - 30 Jun 2005 07:50 - 429 of 1497

Yesterdays fall had nothing to do with leaks. It was the usual trading pattern of buying in upto results and selling the day before in case results not as expected. It always happens in nearly every share.

Personally I think results are reasonably good. Given the business they are in R&D is always going to impact results and you have to look at the results after stripping these out which make good reading.

We do however now need to conclude a distribution deal soon in order to start generating profits and cashflow otherwise the remaining cash will not last long,

I never expected news of a deal to be in the results though, that was always going to be a seperate RNS given the implications that it transforms the company.

Think the price will now fall further until news of the deal is announced, but hold tight because once it is the single figure share price days will be a thing of the past.

More confident than ever that the next 6 months will make me seriously better off.

mg - 30 Jun 2005 07:51 - 430 of 1497

If we get a bail out I, for one, will be looking to add to my shed load. I think I'll need another shed at this rate.

andysmith - 30 Jun 2005 08:03 - 431 of 1497

Same thoughts here folks, if the impatient bale, I have my vacuum and mop ready!! R&D of 500k will be nothing when this takes off.

chocolat - 30 Jun 2005 08:03 - 432 of 1497

Where will you park your bike, mg?

smudge1004 - 30 Jun 2005 08:21 - 433 of 1497

imo these are excellent results for the year with the last 6 months generating 1 million in revs, andy your right mate 500k r&d will be nothing, notice the 250k overdraft is payable from feb, when revs from psa and the us will be rolling in. taken from the results "Following the successful clinical evaluation of the system, we have commenced
application for regulatory approvals in Europe and the USA and we anticipate
releasing this ground breaking system to the market later this year.

The first revenues are expected from this point - of - care diagnostic system in
the 2005 - 06 financial year"
i know we all want a every scrap of good news in the results, however for a stronger sp i favour continual good news over the next 6 months, I feel the mdw BB will be LITTERED with positive rns's

ptholden - 30 Jun 2005 08:40 - 434 of 1497

L2 quite active, now 2v2.
I think the MMs originally positioned themselves for a sell off this morning (like me!), so far it hasn't happened.
I think the major positive from the results is the increase in turnover during H2 to 1M. Assuming R&D costs will fall off for the next financial year, a likewise increase in turnover for the forthcoming year will see MDW turn to profitability, even without a Medtronic deal. My other concern is the cash flow. Although they have just enough with the overdraft facility to see them through the next five - six months, they really do need to continue to generate revenues, otherwise a bigger overdraft or shares issue will be required to keep going. However, judging by the date of repayments for the overdraft facility they appear confident that this will happen. Fingers crossed.

Good luck to all.

pth
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