Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Hil, Quite probably. Tight b*ggers.

Meanwhile, I noticed this:

Log on to http://www.cantos.com for:

Dollar to plunge on deficit fears
- Video interview with Robin Bew, Chief Economist, EIU
- Robin Bew warns that the dollar is set for further falls during the next 12-14 months over concerns about the growing US current account deficit. He adds that Chinese economic growth will slow over the next 24 months, whilst in Europe, Germany faces further woes and the Italian outlook is "particularly bleak".

I bet Robin Bew's fun at a party.

SC: Time to remind ourselves of John Maynard Keynes famous last words?

"I wish I had drunk more Champagne."

Another test.

Last 24 hours



Next 24 hours



Global markets

- EURUSD - Ratio Flips to Net Longs, Signaling More Losses To Come In the EURUSD - GBPUSD - Ratio Remains Unchanged With Both Longs and Shorts Increasing Positions - USDCHF - Ratio Flips to Net Shorts, Confirming EURUSD Sell-off Signal - USDJPY - Open Interest Unchanged But Net Positioning Becomes Increasingly Short Historical Charts Of Speculative Positioning The ratio of longs to shorts in the EURUSD is 1.24, which is within the extreme +/-3 range.  The ratio has flipped back to net longs after moving to net shorts last week.  The change in positioning was a result of a 12.9% slide in open interest.  Shorts reduced holdings by 40% while longs increased their positions by 36%.  Taken as a contrarian indicator, the flip in the EURUSD ratio suggests that the currency pair could extend its move lower. The ratio of longs to shorts in the GBPUSD is 1.36, which is within our extreme +/- 3 range.  The ratio itself remains unchanged with only a 3.4% increase in overall positioning.  Both longs and shorts increased their holdings modestly (3.5% and 3.4% respectively).  Prices ended the week not far from last week’s levels.  Although economic data over the past week has mostly surprised to the downside, the Bank of England is keeping the market guessing with their neutral stance.  We will continue to wait for a flip in the ratio to net shorts before calling a bottom in the GBPUSD. The ratio of longs to shorts in the USDCHF is –1.25, which is within the extreme +/- 3 range.  The ratio has flipped from net longs to net shorts, suggesting that we could see a move higher in USDCHF.  In fact, we are beginning to see that already this morning after the 5am data as the dollar rallies on the back of Greenspan’s comments.  Open interest fell 3.6% with long positions cut by 16% and short positioning rising by 9%.  The fact that both the USDCHF ratio and the EURUSD ratio flipped could be a strong signal for a contra-move in both currency pairs.   The ratio of longs to shorts in the USDJPY is –2.11, which is within the extreme +/- 3 level.  Overall positioning was pretty much unchanged over the past week even though the market became increasingly short.  Long positions were cut by 7.8% while short positions increased by 5% as USDJPY retraces over the past week.  We are basically looking for 2 things in USDJPY at this point, which is either an extreme level in positioning less than –3 or a flip in the ratio before the data can give us any more telling information.  For the time being, as a contrarian indicator, the SSI suggests that USDJPY prices should have a bias to the upside.

Hil:

Excellent, thank you.

D.

Euro


We are continually amazed by the razor sharp accuracy of the FXCM Speculative Sentiment report. Released this morning, the report indicated that speculative positioning flipped from shorts to longs over the past week. The data was for 5am EDT, which makes the flip a perfect contrarian indicator for todays price action. We typically do not report on positioning till the next week, but as of 1pm EDT today, speculators flipped back to net shorts from net longs (ratio shifted from positive 1.24 to minus 1.15). This suggests that the EURUSD could rebound even further from current levels. USDCHF positioning also moved back to net longs (1.10) from net shorts 1.25, providing a further confirmation that we may be in store for a rally in the EURUSD and corresponding sell-off in USDCHF. Meanwhile, the ECBs monthly report echoed recent comments made by President Trichet, which is that even though inflation remains well contained for the time being, the central bank will need to continue to be vigilant, especially since oil prices are back on the rise.

Hils
Been away for the last few days - holed up in the Fens.

You seem to have used the opportunity to post some great stuff - does everyone want me to go day-jobbing again?

mg. In the Fens? Hope you've got your wellies! Anywhere near me at Wisbech?

Welcome back, Oh Papal One. So have you gone short Dollar this morning like the nice contrarian people at FXCM suggested?

Manky Shins
Nah - Iza bin long da cabul from 200 :)

Maggot
Only pretend Fens - Peterborough

mg X1V

Nice one, mg, although my charts say that you should have been out of it 45 minutes ago. NAG as the Poison Dwarf would say.

Hils
Well, it just so happens that I took 255 as a close - so I am a clever little papal waiting person aint I

mg

mg. You're probably going back to civilisation tonight. But if you're staying overnight and have a few minutes perhaps we could meet up? I'm staying at Huntingdon over the weekend.

Hilary, I went long Euro/Dollar 45 minutes ago; suppose that makes me a contrarian? Actually, it does look as if I should perhaps get out flat now. But I've got a stop in at 21, so I think I'll leave it.

Your info is awesome - can't easily grasp it all, but the bits I do understand make sense.

Nice one, mg. Top trading. You're a legend in your own thong.

:o)

maggot,

I've got a EUR/USD long open still but it's been like watching paint dry. I've got a parabolic SAR as my stop on the 5-minute chart. If it touches that (and it's quite close atm), it's history.

maggot
I returned last night - you can still see the rubber burn marks in the Ramada Hotel car park ;)

Maybe another time. Next time I'd rather be a bit further east - I love the Norfolk coast - and, would you believe it - spent 2 years in Snettisham when a very small child and many happy holidays in Sheringham when growing up - where my Nan and Aunt used to live. Wonderful part of the world.

Hils
Tried a EUR/USD earlier on but decided against it - out for -1 about 08:00

Thanks, Hilary. Never looked at a Parabolic SAR, but am looking at it on the cmc 5-minute chart. The explanation is very understandable - at my age they need to be simple. I admit I have hardly ever used anything except a bare chart, what little news I understand, and copious amounts of luck. But whatever works...

mg. Ah - happy memories of Snet'sam, walking along the beach in wild winter Nor'-Easters, hand-in-hand with young (frozen) ladies. And Sheringham is still a little gem - hordes of locals retire there. Great bird-watching country as well. We often drive to the coast along here. I used to fish a fair bit in the sea along here, but fish stocks are so low it's fairly pointless now.

They can be very good for getting you out of winning trades at around the right time, but in a ranging market the whipsaws can seriously damage your wealth. They should be used with caution, imo.