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Hil:

Excellent, thank you.

D.

Euro


We are continually amazed by the razor sharp accuracy of the FXCM Speculative Sentiment report. Released this morning, the report indicated that speculative positioning flipped from shorts to longs over the past week. The data was for 5am EDT, which makes the flip a perfect contrarian indicator for todays price action. We typically do not report on positioning till the next week, but as of 1pm EDT today, speculators flipped back to net shorts from net longs (ratio shifted from positive 1.24 to minus 1.15). This suggests that the EURUSD could rebound even further from current levels. USDCHF positioning also moved back to net longs (1.10) from net shorts 1.25, providing a further confirmation that we may be in store for a rally in the EURUSD and corresponding sell-off in USDCHF. Meanwhile, the ECBs monthly report echoed recent comments made by President Trichet, which is that even though inflation remains well contained for the time being, the central bank will need to continue to be vigilant, especially since oil prices are back on the rise.

Hils
Been away for the last few days - holed up in the Fens.

You seem to have used the opportunity to post some great stuff - does everyone want me to go day-jobbing again?

mg. In the Fens? Hope you've got your wellies! Anywhere near me at Wisbech?

Welcome back, Oh Papal One. So have you gone short Dollar this morning like the nice contrarian people at FXCM suggested?

Manky Shins
Nah - Iza bin long da cabul from 200 :)

Maggot
Only pretend Fens - Peterborough

mg X1V

Nice one, mg, although my charts say that you should have been out of it 45 minutes ago. NAG as the Poison Dwarf would say.

Hils
Well, it just so happens that I took 255 as a close - so I am a clever little papal waiting person aint I

mg

mg. You're probably going back to civilisation tonight. But if you're staying overnight and have a few minutes perhaps we could meet up? I'm staying at Huntingdon over the weekend.

Hilary, I went long Euro/Dollar 45 minutes ago; suppose that makes me a contrarian? Actually, it does look as if I should perhaps get out flat now. But I've got a stop in at 21, so I think I'll leave it.

Your info is awesome - can't easily grasp it all, but the bits I do understand make sense.

Nice one, mg. Top trading. You're a legend in your own thong.

:o)

maggot,

I've got a EUR/USD long open still but it's been like watching paint dry. I've got a parabolic SAR as my stop on the 5-minute chart. If it touches that (and it's quite close atm), it's history.

maggot
I returned last night - you can still see the rubber burn marks in the Ramada Hotel car park ;)

Maybe another time. Next time I'd rather be a bit further east - I love the Norfolk coast - and, would you believe it - spent 2 years in Snettisham when a very small child and many happy holidays in Sheringham when growing up - where my Nan and Aunt used to live. Wonderful part of the world.

Hils
Tried a EUR/USD earlier on but decided against it - out for -1 about 08:00

Thanks, Hilary. Never looked at a Parabolic SAR, but am looking at it on the cmc 5-minute chart. The explanation is very understandable - at my age they need to be simple. I admit I have hardly ever used anything except a bare chart, what little news I understand, and copious amounts of luck. But whatever works...

mg. Ah - happy memories of Snet'sam, walking along the beach in wild winter Nor'-Easters, hand-in-hand with young (frozen) ladies. And Sheringham is still a little gem - hordes of locals retire there. Great bird-watching country as well. We often drive to the coast along here. I used to fish a fair bit in the sea along here, but fish stocks are so low it's fairly pointless now.

They can be very good for getting you out of winning trades at around the right time, but in a ranging market the whipsaws can seriously damage your wealth. They should be used with caution, imo.

Well, they worked perfectly on Euro/Dollar, Hilary. Very impressed; stopped out -12. I have also put it on the Cable chart and that's equally good. Nothing open at the moment, but they both look reasonable shorts.

edit. Opened a short at 1.2173 in the end - doing nicely.

edit. Stopped out at 44 for +29. And strangely enough that's just where the price meets the parabolic curve.

Maggot,

Well done.

If it's any help, I actually run 2 separate Parabolic SAR's at different steps. This is because they sometimes crossover and when one takes you out of a trade, the other SAR, combined with other indicators, often says to stay in. More often than not, they are both at around the same level when it really is time to kiss the trade goodbye.

edit: For instance as I type, 1 SAR on cable and 1 SAR on EUR/USD says exit the short trade, but the other SAR says to stay short in each of the trades. I then look at the respective 1 minute charts which both say to stay short, so short it is for now with a bit of caution.

2nd edit: 16:43 and both SAR's in both trades say that it's time to go.

I see. In fact my stop was false - it turned immediately. Will have a good look at the system you describe. Thanks.

Hils
Just got back from a spot of Golf, doncha know. Wish I'd gone short when I closed my long ;(

Interested in the SAR settings - which do you use?

mg,

The settings are stored on my other PC which won't be used now until Monday. I can mail them to you then if you wish.

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