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The Forex Thread (FX)
hilary
- 31 Dec 2003 13:00
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mg
- 10 Jun 2005 11:37
- 4167 of 11056
Manky Shins
Nah - Iza bin long da cabul from 200 :)
Maggot
Only pretend Fens - Peterborough
mg X1V
Nah - Iza bin long da cabul from 200 :)
Maggot
Only pretend Fens - Peterborough
mg X1V
hilary
- 10 Jun 2005 12:03
- 4168 of 11056
Nice one, mg, although my charts say that you should have been out of it 45 minutes ago. NAG as the Poison Dwarf would say.
mg
- 10 Jun 2005 12:12
- 4169 of 11056
Hils
Well, it just so happens that I took 255 as a close - so I am a clever little papal waiting person aint I
mg
Well, it just so happens that I took 255 as a close - so I am a clever little papal waiting person aint I
mg
Maggot
- 10 Jun 2005 12:15
- 4170 of 11056
mg. You're probably going back to civilisation tonight. But if you're staying overnight and have a few minutes perhaps we could meet up? I'm staying at Huntingdon over the weekend.
Hilary, I went long Euro/Dollar 45 minutes ago; suppose that makes me a contrarian? Actually, it does look as if I should perhaps get out flat now. But I've got a stop in at 21, so I think I'll leave it.
Your info is awesome - can't easily grasp it all, but the bits I do understand make sense.
Hilary, I went long Euro/Dollar 45 minutes ago; suppose that makes me a contrarian? Actually, it does look as if I should perhaps get out flat now. But I've got a stop in at 21, so I think I'll leave it.
Your info is awesome - can't easily grasp it all, but the bits I do understand make sense.
hilary
- 10 Jun 2005 12:15
- 4171 of 11056
Nice one, mg. Top trading. You're a legend in your own thong.
:o)
:o)
hilary
- 10 Jun 2005 12:21
- 4172 of 11056
maggot,
I've got a EUR/USD long open still but it's been like watching paint dry. I've got a parabolic SAR as my stop on the 5-minute chart. If it touches that (and it's quite close atm), it's history.
I've got a EUR/USD long open still but it's been like watching paint dry. I've got a parabolic SAR as my stop on the 5-minute chart. If it touches that (and it's quite close atm), it's history.
mg
- 10 Jun 2005 12:28
- 4173 of 11056
maggot
I returned last night - you can still see the rubber burn marks in the Ramada Hotel car park ;)
Maybe another time. Next time I'd rather be a bit further east - I love the Norfolk coast - and, would you believe it - spent 2 years in Snettisham when a very small child and many happy holidays in Sheringham when growing up - where my Nan and Aunt used to live. Wonderful part of the world.
Hils
Tried a EUR/USD earlier on but decided against it - out for -1 about 08:00
I returned last night - you can still see the rubber burn marks in the Ramada Hotel car park ;)
Maybe another time. Next time I'd rather be a bit further east - I love the Norfolk coast - and, would you believe it - spent 2 years in Snettisham when a very small child and many happy holidays in Sheringham when growing up - where my Nan and Aunt used to live. Wonderful part of the world.
Hils
Tried a EUR/USD earlier on but decided against it - out for -1 about 08:00
Maggot
- 10 Jun 2005 12:31
- 4174 of 11056
Thanks, Hilary. Never looked at a Parabolic SAR, but am looking at it on the cmc 5-minute chart. The explanation is very understandable - at my age they need to be simple. I admit I have hardly ever used anything except a bare chart, what little news I understand, and copious amounts of luck. But whatever works...
Maggot
- 10 Jun 2005 12:36
- 4175 of 11056
mg. Ah - happy memories of Snet'sam, walking along the beach in wild winter Nor'-Easters, hand-in-hand with young (frozen) ladies. And Sheringham is still a little gem - hordes of locals retire there. Great bird-watching country as well. We often drive to the coast along here. I used to fish a fair bit in the sea along here, but fish stocks are so low it's fairly pointless now.
hilary
- 10 Jun 2005 12:57
- 4176 of 11056
They can be very good for getting you out of winning trades at around the right time, but in a ranging market the whipsaws can seriously damage your wealth. They should be used with caution, imo.
Maggot
- 10 Jun 2005 14:43
- 4177 of 11056
Well, they worked perfectly on Euro/Dollar, Hilary. Very impressed; stopped out -12. I have also put it on the Cable chart and that's equally good. Nothing open at the moment, but they both look reasonable shorts.
edit. Opened a short at 1.2173 in the end - doing nicely.
edit. Stopped out at 44 for +29. And strangely enough that's just where the price meets the parabolic curve.
edit. Opened a short at 1.2173 in the end - doing nicely.
edit. Stopped out at 44 for +29. And strangely enough that's just where the price meets the parabolic curve.
hilary
- 10 Jun 2005 16:32
- 4178 of 11056
Maggot,
Well done.
If it's any help, I actually run 2 separate Parabolic SAR's at different steps. This is because they sometimes crossover and when one takes you out of a trade, the other SAR, combined with other indicators, often says to stay in. More often than not, they are both at around the same level when it really is time to kiss the trade goodbye.
edit: For instance as I type, 1 SAR on cable and 1 SAR on EUR/USD says exit the short trade, but the other SAR says to stay short in each of the trades. I then look at the respective 1 minute charts which both say to stay short, so short it is for now with a bit of caution.
2nd edit: 16:43 and both SAR's in both trades say that it's time to go.
Well done.
If it's any help, I actually run 2 separate Parabolic SAR's at different steps. This is because they sometimes crossover and when one takes you out of a trade, the other SAR, combined with other indicators, often says to stay in. More often than not, they are both at around the same level when it really is time to kiss the trade goodbye.
edit: For instance as I type, 1 SAR on cable and 1 SAR on EUR/USD says exit the short trade, but the other SAR says to stay short in each of the trades. I then look at the respective 1 minute charts which both say to stay short, so short it is for now with a bit of caution.
2nd edit: 16:43 and both SAR's in both trades say that it's time to go.
Maggot
- 10 Jun 2005 16:44
- 4179 of 11056
I see. In fact my stop was false - it turned immediately. Will have a good look at the system you describe. Thanks.
mg
- 10 Jun 2005 18:16
- 4180 of 11056
Hils
Just got back from a spot of Golf, doncha know. Wish I'd gone short when I closed my long ;(
Interested in the SAR settings - which do you use?
Just got back from a spot of Golf, doncha know. Wish I'd gone short when I closed my long ;(
Interested in the SAR settings - which do you use?
hilary
- 11 Jun 2005 08:47
- 4181 of 11056
mg,
The settings are stored on my other PC which won't be used now until Monday. I can mail them to you then if you wish.
Last 24 hours
Next 24 hours
Global markets
The settings are stored on my other PC which won't be used now until Monday. I can mail them to you then if you wish.
Last 24 hours
Next 24 hours
Global markets
mg
- 11 Jun 2005 09:17
- 4182 of 11056
Hils
Yes please
mg
Yes please
mg
hilary
- 13 Jun 2005 09:19
- 4183 of 11056
mg,
I've sent you those settings.
"The
most recent data support the view that the soft readings on the economy
observed in the early spring were not presaging a more-serious slowdown
in the pace of activity. The U.S. economy seems to be on a reasonably
firm footing and underlying inflation remains contained."
"Everything
is open to debate" if member states are prepared to have a fundamental
review of the union's expenditure. If we have a fundamental review of
the way Europe spends its money then everything is open to debate."Tony Blair, UK Prime Minister. Friday, June 10, 2005 15:48 GMT
I've sent you those settings.
US Dollar
"Themost recent data support the view that the soft readings on the economy
observed in the early spring were not presaging a more-serious slowdown
in the pace of activity. The U.S. economy seems to be on a reasonably
firm footing and underlying inflation remains contained."
Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman. Thursday, June 9, 2005 15:26 GMT
One Final Push?If
there was ever proof that FX is a pure sentiment market witness the
reaction to Friday’s “bullish” Trade Balance numbers. The April results
printed a whisker shy of -$58 Billion putting the annual run rate at
almost -$700 Billion or approximately 6% of GDP! Yet the EUR/USD sold
off to the tune of almost 130 points marking new yearly highs for the
greenback. What is going on? Expectations for one. The market
was afraid that the number would print in excess of -$60 Billion and
when the actual result was considerably less and prior month’s data was
revised to -$53 Billion from --$55 Billion, the relived dollar bulls
pressed their trades further.More importantly however is market
positioning. Everybody, including your truly, is still trying to catch
the bottom in the EUR/USD move. Last Thursday our proprietary SSI
reading showed speculators switching to net long positions in the euro
– of course inviting further pain as the down move continued. The pair
may need to hit 1.2000 with an overwhelming majority of speculators
rushing to establish euro shorts before we finally see a turn.
there was ever proof that FX is a pure sentiment market witness the
reaction to Friday’s “bullish” Trade Balance numbers. The April results
printed a whisker shy of -$58 Billion putting the annual run rate at
almost -$700 Billion or approximately 6% of GDP! Yet the EUR/USD sold
off to the tune of almost 130 points marking new yearly highs for the
greenback. What is going on? Expectations for one. The market
was afraid that the number would print in excess of -$60 Billion and
when the actual result was considerably less and prior month’s data was
revised to -$53 Billion from --$55 Billion, the relived dollar bulls
pressed their trades further.More importantly however is market
positioning. Everybody, including your truly, is still trying to catch
the bottom in the EUR/USD move. Last Thursday our proprietary SSI
reading showed speculators switching to net long positions in the euro
– of course inviting further pain as the down move continued. The pair
may need to hit 1.2000 with an overwhelming majority of speculators
rushing to establish euro shorts before we finally see a turn.
Euro
"I
am confident that Europe will overcome its difficulties, following the
recent setback to the ratification of the EU Constitution." Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president. Thursday, June 9, 2005 15:25 GMT
am confident that Europe will overcome its difficulties, following the
recent setback to the ratification of the EU Constitution." Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president. Thursday, June 9, 2005 15:25 GMT
Offering Nothing to the Longs
In
addition to its well known political problems, the European Union
offered not one morsel of positive economic data to the few euro longs
left in the market. Most surprising and disappointing of all was
relatively weak Trade Balance data from Germany which showed German
exports actually declining on a month over month basis. As we’ve argued
before, the 15 cent decline from the highs of last year should
translate to better export flow for the beleaguered region – but most
likely we will not see the positive effects of the currency decline
until a few months forward.In the meantime, next week’s data
holds almost no market moving events with Euro-zone CPI the only
marquee release of the week. More than ever the euro will trade off of
US data and adjustments in market sentiment, unless of course EZ
politicians continue to make secession talk. The key question will be
which politicians from which countries. As we’ve noted in the past
Italy’s departure would be actually euro positive. But now having
flirted with danger long enough, the political rhetoric may cool
allowing the market to once again return to following the fundamentals.
addition to its well known political problems, the European Union
offered not one morsel of positive economic data to the few euro longs
left in the market. Most surprising and disappointing of all was
relatively weak Trade Balance data from Germany which showed German
exports actually declining on a month over month basis. As we’ve argued
before, the 15 cent decline from the highs of last year should
translate to better export flow for the beleaguered region – but most
likely we will not see the positive effects of the currency decline
until a few months forward.In the meantime, next week’s data
holds almost no market moving events with Euro-zone CPI the only
marquee release of the week. More than ever the euro will trade off of
US data and adjustments in market sentiment, unless of course EZ
politicians continue to make secession talk. The key question will be
which politicians from which countries. As we’ve noted in the past
Italy’s departure would be actually euro positive. But now having
flirted with danger long enough, the political rhetoric may cool
allowing the market to once again return to following the fundamentals.
Japanese Yen
"China's currency should be more flexible, but that it is up to Beijing to decide how to reform the yuan."Sadakazu Tanigaki, Japanese Finance Minister. Friday, June 10, 2005 10:00 GMT
OK Triple Top for Real?
Friday’s
rally in USD/JPY was especially ironic, as the world’s greatest trade
debtor (US) saw its currency appreciate by more than 100 points against
the world’s greatest trade creditor (Japan), making every economics
professor scratch their head in wonderment. The move was of
course fueled by strong dollar sentiment and most likely rapid short
covering as the pair approached the 109 level.
rally in USD/JPY was especially ironic, as the world’s greatest trade
debtor (US) saw its currency appreciate by more than 100 points against
the world’s greatest trade creditor (Japan), making every economics
professor scratch their head in wonderment. The move was of
course fueled by strong dollar sentiment and most likely rapid short
covering as the pair approached the 109 level.
Trading
in the pair now rests at the most interesting technical and fundamental
tipping point. From a technical perspective, this the third time in a
row that the USD/JPY has approached the 109 level in 2 months. Were it
to break out to the upside, it would see little resistance until
111-112. From a fundamental point of view Japanese data continues to
print solid if not spectacular results and therefore stands in stark
contradiction to recent price action.Next week the most
interesting economic release for the pair will not come from the
Japanese calendar but from US. On Wednesday the Treasury Department
reports it monthly TICS data and the market will keenly focus on
whether Japan – the biggest holder of US Treasuries in the world – has
resumed its purchasing ways or continues to remain on the
sidelines. Depending on the news, USD/JPY may extend its rally or
finally seal the triple top.
in the pair now rests at the most interesting technical and fundamental
tipping point. From a technical perspective, this the third time in a
row that the USD/JPY has approached the 109 level in 2 months. Were it
to break out to the upside, it would see little resistance until
111-112. From a fundamental point of view Japanese data continues to
print solid if not spectacular results and therefore stands in stark
contradiction to recent price action.Next week the most
interesting economic release for the pair will not come from the
Japanese calendar but from US. On Wednesday the Treasury Department
reports it monthly TICS data and the market will keenly focus on
whether Japan – the biggest holder of US Treasuries in the world – has
resumed its purchasing ways or continues to remain on the
sidelines. Depending on the news, USD/JPY may extend its rally or
finally seal the triple top.
British Pound
"Everythingis open to debate" if member states are prepared to have a fundamental
review of the union's expenditure. If we have a fundamental review of
the way Europe spends its money then everything is open to debate."Tony Blair, UK Prime Minister. Friday, June 10, 2005 15:48 GMT
Pound Stops Selling
If
there is ever a politician with nine lives than Tony Blair must surely
be him. Only a month after most conventional wisdom held that he would
soon be forced to turn over the Prime Minister’s post to Gordon Brown,
Mr. Blair finds himself firmly in control of his position and more
importantly now inherits the post of the European Presidency as the FX
world now looking expectantly to his famous political talents to rescue
the crisis ridden EU.
there is ever a politician with nine lives than Tony Blair must surely
be him. Only a month after most conventional wisdom held that he would
soon be forced to turn over the Prime Minister’s post to Gordon Brown,
Mr. Blair finds himself firmly in control of his position and more
importantly now inherits the post of the European Presidency as the FX
world now looking expectantly to his famous political talents to rescue
the crisis ridden EU.
Just as Mr. Blair’s fortunes
have improved, so have the pound’s. The currency showed the smallest
decline against the greenback amongst all the majors as the economic
data somewhat rebounded. Most notably Industrial Production, while
still lower than a year ago, showed month over month increases.
Similarly, BOE kept rates unchanged, however, talk of actual rate cut
was absent, providing some support to cable which still maintains a
175bp positive carry to the dollar. As we can see
on the chart cable broke out of the downtrend this week and while
further declines are certainly possible, a significant continuation of
the down move appears less and less probable as the unit is likely to
consolidate and retrace higher from here.
have improved, so have the pound’s. The currency showed the smallest
decline against the greenback amongst all the majors as the economic
data somewhat rebounded. Most notably Industrial Production, while
still lower than a year ago, showed month over month increases.
Similarly, BOE kept rates unchanged, however, talk of actual rate cut
was absent, providing some support to cable which still maintains a
175bp positive carry to the dollar. As we can see
on the chart cable broke out of the downtrend this week and while
further declines are certainly possible, a significant continuation of
the down move appears less and less probable as the unit is likely to
consolidate and retrace higher from here.
Swiss Frank
Short Term Top?
Has
the USD/CHF finally set a short term top last week? The $7 spike in
gold certainly did not hurt. As the market becomes increasingly
dismayed with both the euro because of its political problems and the
dollar because of the intractable deficits which show no signs of
abating, traders may turn to the Swissie as the traditional “flight to
safety” currency. Last week the unit lost 1.89% against
the greenback, but still outperformed the euro. For those who believe
that the Swiss economy will outperform the Euro-zone, while Swiss
political stability will provide investors with security, the EUR/CHF
continues to be a good trade to the short side.
the USD/CHF finally set a short term top last week? The $7 spike in
gold certainly did not hurt. As the market becomes increasingly
dismayed with both the euro because of its political problems and the
dollar because of the intractable deficits which show no signs of
abating, traders may turn to the Swissie as the traditional “flight to
safety” currency. Last week the unit lost 1.89% against
the greenback, but still outperformed the euro. For those who believe
that the Swiss economy will outperform the Euro-zone, while Swiss
political stability will provide investors with security, the EUR/CHF
continues to be a good trade to the short side.
Next
week the unemployment figures which are expected to report unchanged
may contribute to the notion of stability in the Swiss economy.
week the unemployment figures which are expected to report unchanged
may contribute to the notion of stability in the Swiss economy.
hilary
- 13 Jun 2005 09:34
- 4184 of 11056
I'm not sure who Swiss Frank is btw. I think he might sell Emmental from a deli on the Bayswater Road.
mg
- 13 Jun 2005 10:36
- 4185 of 11056
Manky Shins
Thanks
BTW - Swiss Frank is Swiss Tony's Dad - he's on the Bayswater Road but sells bells and whistles !!
mg X1V (What happened to the Lira?)
PS Not so sure about the "Pound Stops Selling" - been looking for a long entry without success.....
Thanks
BTW - Swiss Frank is Swiss Tony's Dad - he's on the Bayswater Road but sells bells and whistles !!
mg X1V (What happened to the Lira?)
PS Not so sure about the "Pound Stops Selling" - been looking for a long entry without success.....
hilary
- 13 Jun 2005 11:00
- 4186 of 11056
mg,
Do you see what I mean about not using SAR's alone?
For instance, Cable was a no-brainer short at 7am. You would, however, have been whipsawed out several times for a loss had you used SAR's in a non-trending market. Once the trade moved into profit and picked up a bit of momentum with the trend after about 9am, then it was safe to employ the SAR's. Only now is it starting look as though the end might be nigh.
edit: And out as I typed.
Do you see what I mean about not using SAR's alone?
For instance, Cable was a no-brainer short at 7am. You would, however, have been whipsawed out several times for a loss had you used SAR's in a non-trending market. Once the trade moved into profit and picked up a bit of momentum with the trend after about 9am, then it was safe to employ the SAR's. Only now is it starting look as though the end might be nigh.
edit: And out as I typed.
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