Bioprogress is a stock I have been in and out of quite a few times since it floated in May but not much mention here on the Investors' Room. Does anyone else follow this stock. I see it is up 1.5p today and a few good buyers seem to have appeared.

just glad i stayed with these when lots of others were jumping ship, even topped up and the news looks impressive. happy days.

happy days are here again and we shall see 1.40 very shortly indeed.

from t'other bb,


Hello all, good to be back and only had to trail through 175 post.

Up again. Fantasic!

So where are we now:

Valuations on average from the high forheads of between 2.50 to 3.80ish at TODAYS value.

Top 10 pharma announcement imminent plus a further 2 to come in the next 6 months + a lot more Im sure we dont know about e.g. Nasdaq listing?

So we all know that this is going to fly up to and beyond 5. Well why dont we all relax and let the MM's panic as we have the stock and they havent!

The institutions, lets be quite honest also are not going to get their stock. The MM and inst's without the stock are going to push this higher on their own.

GH has the product, the machines, the contract winning skills and most of the top flight pharma community running aroung wanting to meet and discuss how to dump gelatin and replace with Xgel in the US, and then Europe, Asia and the rest of the globe.

They have 70 patents on their products and the nearest competition is 2 to 5 years behind by which time BPRG will have cleared up. I rest my case.

My strategy is : sell 1/3 at a 5, another 1/3 at 7.50 and the balance (yes you guessed it - 1/3) at 10, unless by the first tranche they havent already gone to the moon 25 - 100 or been taken oever (most probable).

I just imagine a day when all oral medications use XGel (3, 5, 10 years time?)

It is so good to be a part of a revolution.

Upbeat at lemming investor today..................

BioProgress seemed to want to underline the significance of two key events today Mentioned in the company`s maiden report for 2003. The additional statement has had a benificial effect on the share price by notching up 6.5p in early trading to 118p bid. Still way off its hight of 167p. However, still up from our 55p.

The first was the signing of the global licensing agreement for its NROBE(R) technology with the FMC BioPolymer which we expect to be worth a minimum of US$160 million to BioProgress in revenues during the first six years and which runs for a total of nineteen years to 2023.

'The second event was the signing of the agreement with the un-named US pharmaceutical company to license exclusively our TABWRAP(R) technology in a particular market sector. I would like to take this opportunity to give Shareholders a better understanding of the importance to the Company of this licensing agreement, as some Shareholders may consider that an initial payment of US$900,000 and anticipated royalty revenues of only US$1 to 1.5 million in 2005 may seem small by comparison with the revenues previously indicated for the FMC licensing agreement.

'One of the key issues to bear in mind is the significance of my statement in the announcement of the TABWRAP(R) agreement that the TABWRAP(R) licensee was influential in the industry and that the US annual OTC medicines and vitamin mineral supplement market according to independent monitors was valued at US$10.8 billion. Figures for the full year 2003 show it has grown to US$11.1 billion.

'Our US TABWRAP(R) licensee is influential because according to IRI, an independent research monitor, it currently has in excess of 13% of total sales by value of the US $11.1 billion annual market across a broad range of product categories. The BioProgress TABWRAP(R) royalties are based on a percentage of the licensee's gross product sales and, as there are only modest administrative costs attached, these royalties are almost entirely profit for BioProgress.

'The forecast of US$1 to 1.5 million royalties by 2005 represents an adoption of the TABWRAP(R) technology by the licensee initially in around 5% of its current product portfolio. We expect the licensee to progressively adopt TABWRAP(R) across a number of its products and to use it for several new products. As a result of this I expect the BioProgress royalty stream from this agreement to grow significantly in the next five years.'

cheers GF.

From other bb,

Anyone can post whatever they like as far as I am concerned but I do tend to skim over the posts about CS and MM's. The only thing that interest me are deals, revenues, potential bids and progress on the machines and technology developments.

Don't really go a lot on the don't sell your shares posts - people can sell if they want to or buy if they want to. Posts advising people not to sell written in huge letters without any other content probably have an adverse effect as they have an element of panic about them. If they are backed up by solid reasons based on fact then that's different.

I wouldn't be so presumptive to call for those posts to be reduced as my view is that anyone can post what they wish unless it is with a malicious objective of misinforming in order to manipulate the market. On that note I feel IC has entered that territory and he and advfn are on dangerous ground - erroneously suggesting an existing major deal had been cancelled etc etc.

I think the bb's are best used for idle chat, a bit of humour or passing on some useful information that has some semblance of accuracy.

Anyway, the issues I hold firmly in my mind are:-

1) Instututions queued up for 11m shares at 110p and would have liked a further 20m shares at 110p.

2) Nrobe is licensed out with minimum revenues of $160m. The margins on these revenues will be high. Broker notes will give some clues on the margins.

3) Tabwrap is partially licensed out (only to the OTC market) with potential royalties ftom this minority sector of $30m upwards. We await a broader licensing agreement for supplying the pharmaceutical sector which would dwarf even these sizeable figures.

4)Aquafilm is supplying significant revenues for this year with high margin products. This should lead to a profitable year. GH has already stated that downpayments for the OTC deal and of course the anticipated further licensing deal will fall into this year. It is not a question of whether BPRG will be profitable this year - we await the broker notes for a guideline on how profitable this year will be. The following year will of course be the one to produce the revenues of jaw-dropping proportions.

5) 17m in the bank

6) Ostomy licensed out to the biggest player in the $1 billion market who controls nearly 50% of that market with an inferior product to the BPRG bag they will switch to later this year. Regardless of launch date, minimum royalties will start to be paid later this year.

6) We await licensing of Swallow - a technology applicable to a $5 billion market.

7) We know that Aquafilm supplied Cardinal/Scherer for their SEO project and appears to be the only game in town regarding supply. Further research is needed on whether Aquafilm supplied Cardinal for existing needs aside from the SEO project. Bid rumours have stemmed from this but there are other factors.

8) The fact that BPRG are on the verge of licensing Swallow is another reason driving the bid rumours. Will Cardinal/ Scherer watch meekly while their major clients for soft gel capsules switch to XGel? Will they sit passively as their staggering revenues become somewhat less staggering? Unlikely I would have thought.

9)The complete absence of serious competition for all the main XGel technologies. Nothing could highlight this more starkly than the pre-patent site with the likes of Pharmacia-Upjohn specifying BPRG as the source of HPMC non-gelatin capsules.

10) The broker note is due very soon according to Graham Hind and it will follow a major licensing deal. That broker note will of course back up why the placing at 110p was three times over-subscribed with institutions.

I haven't even mentioned the potential for Aquafilm to be applied to Viagra or for Septum (a technology that GH does not rule out licensing this year due to unexpected rapid development) to revolutionise the pharma industry. No need to mention the peripheral low margin multi-billion markets for confectionary, paintball and household products that BPRG declines to tackle at present. Those in the list are the here and now prospects. The hard graft has been done while the company was on the OTC Nasdaq and we can now reap the rewards.

The only concern with this well-funded, multi-patented and deal laden stock is that it will be taken over somewhere between 200p and 300p very short-term.

Any idea who might like the look of Bioprogress as a potential target! Would it be someone like Glaxo or would it sit outside the pharma market? Not really fussed if it goes that way as been holding since 60p and added as it risen recently.

Good Luck to all holders.

Hi all,

this is for,,,
(Investors)
(Day traders please look away (its not for you))

I am still HOLD on BPRG

we all need to relax a bit (me also)

we have seen the price go up to 160
and down to 99p (big 8th)
some have been in since 50p days and before

so what!

does not matter unless you buy or sell

quick kill works for a while then you get stuffed

long term works, sorry for this but,,, long term work long term

I have been 'playing the market' for 15 years ish now

and thats a new boy!

ps
good luck all

any tips?

I quite like the look of Kingfisher (B&Q) any thoughts?

Here's a tip Aqafresh, Interalliance Group IAL, they're gonna be taken over soon by a company call Birkely Berry Birch BBB and the IAL stock is going to rise big time.

i thought bbb had gone bust, they were on watchdog type programme just the other week.....defintely dyor research on this one

been away for a week and can't believe so few posts on BPRG - can someone please let me know if the broker's note has come out while I was away??? Would be much appreciated

No not out yet,maybe next week!!!!

Thanks nematode - it actually MUST come out on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday next week as I spoke to Graham Hind and was told that it would be out by the end of March

Take the example of Gresham computing that went from 20p to 4.54 in 6 months! I feel BPRG potential and exposure to world markets to be way, way in excess of Gresham.

In answer to the points you raised:

"It is a pity you have spammed the analysis on every BPRG thread, like you seem to do with most of your posts."

I was simply appealing to the (and previous) mass BPRG audience that browse ADVFN BB's. I believe this thread is now the only real one but with so many versions it is difficult to find the right home.

Secondly, like yourself, I welcome comments in agreement / disagreement as that is the basis of discussion and hence is welcomed on all threads.

"If you recall it was due to the over excitement in the recent past that BVRG got so very over-bought, and resulted in inexperienced investors getting very heavily burnt. I had hoped that posters, claiming they had been professionals, would have taken a more professional approach in their analysis and cared more for the inexperienced investors."

I must say that I am now inactive and not classed as a professional anymore, hence my contribution to the BB's which I couldnt previously have done. But point taken.

No one, not even myself can be blamed for investors timing - we are all big boys and responsible for our own actions. Remember, finding good companies is relatively easy - the timing is everything and even those that might have paid 160p, if held will be rewarded many times over if they take, like I the LT view.

It was the MM's that marked the price up to 160p and not the likes of myself. In fact I posted nothing about price expectations at this point and was simply the pure eurphoria of investors when they got a glimpse of the potential of this stock.

The people that got burnt were traders. You will never successfully trade a stock such as BPRG short term unless you have inside info or its pure luck. The RNS's have been frequent in recent months but there may come a time when they slowdown and become less frequent, in which case the share price will be stagnant and retrace making short term trading extremely risky.

"FYI, some of the things I find wrong with your analysis:-
1) I don't recall you allowed for Tax, which would reduce your figures by 30%"

Yes, I agree but you cant get too bogged down in the nitty gritty with a company in the early development phase of growth. BPRG's revenue alone is very hard to value as we both agree. Similalry you cant account for many items, but as the contracts are shrouded in secracy so as not to 'let the cat out of the bag', so we must at this juncture concentrate purely on revenue streams and then, yes, look at the offset costs later when we have a greater knowledge. In saying this, the % of pharmas turnover in royalies has no direct offset costs -it goes straight to the bottom profit line.

"2) you assume a market share of 25% of the OTC market, but on what basis? The OTC company that has got the EXCLUSIVE rights to BVRG's product, current only have a 11% market share. So as a minimum you are assuming that the company will double its market share almost over-night. That's unrealistic. You even make matters worse by a throw away remark that maybe getting 50% market share is not out of the question!!"

In fact they have 13% of the market share, if we are talikng about the OTC contract. Other pharmas will be forced to follow suit as they understand that breaking in to many new markets globally has to involve serious allowances for moral and religious interests which currently forbid today the use of Gelatin being based on animal materials, particlularly in Asia.

They will be forced to undergo contracts incurring large royalty penalties to BPRG to have any interest in these markets. I was purely making estimates based on this contract and others that are most probably in the pipeline. As I stated. Please remember I also omitted likely estimated revenues on their other products from my valuations.

Yes, I believe the days of Gelatin are numbered and BPRG are an on-going and growing. XGEL is so heavily patented no one can simply reproduce BPRG's product without serious legal ramifications or more likely yet another healthy royalty stream to BPRG as other companies realise their only survival will be based on BPRG's products.

"3) you make no analysis of what percentage of the OTC business even lends itself to BPRG's technology i.e. an amateurish omission. For example do liquid medicines like cough mixtures? I think not. I am sure there are many others."

I feel I explained this above.

In fact with XGEL, liquid based medicines can be encapsulated, but yes some estimates have to be made on likely growth, but as BPRG since its inception last year have increased in capitalisation to at its peak of 160p by 1000% - I dont think that this is too unrealistic?

"4) I recall one of the more knowledgeable long-term posters, has already brought you up for assuming a 2% royalty stream, and that the figure may in fact be almost half that."

I disagree - they will receive $1 to $1.5 million equating to 5% of the OTC pharmas current product protfolio. This pharma has a 13% market share of the $11.1 billion OTC market. Dont forget also new products and work in progress as stated in GH's "letter to shareholders" are also to be factored in.

"5) You assume royalty revenue = 100% profit, there is something called margin you have forgotten. The margin may be high, but it won't be 100%. In any case there will be on-going R&D costs as well, otherwise the company stands still and won't have any new technology/products to offer. Fine, you could make an zero R&D assumption, but then you could only value the comapany on a Discounted Cash Flow basis, not a PE basis. The underlying justification of using PE in valuations, is that the business has an on-going and growing nature over many, many years, and especially so, if you use a PE of 20."

GH categorically stated that the royalty stream is pure profit and gets added to the bottom line. In relation to your second point, yes the business does have an on-going and growing nature over many, many years.

"6) You say at the start, lets be Conservative, but there is nothing conservative about your analysis."

I think we agree to disagree here.

"I realise, you will be hurt by me being so blunt, but someone has to try to stop a repeat of the recent share price fiasco, and private investors getting burnt. So please understand I am really sorry if you feel hurt."

I dont think that their was a fiasco as such. The MM rallied the price and them it retraced in addition to the fall caused by the falling US markets and the Madrid / Hamas situation. In fact I feel BPRG held up really well.

As stated earlier I am not hurt and hope I have justified my actions. The only people who have been hurt here are punters: it has been said time and time again by myself and others - this is a LT play and not for trading. If you trade you will probably get as many right as you get wrong, so whats the point of taking the risk on margin or T trading.

"Now, don't get me wrong, I'm a BPRG bull and heavily long, and the share price may one day get to the levels of your prediction"

You hit the nail on the head: this is looking further down the field and not today, although my justifications I uphold but the market will let market forces dictate the share price by I would say 60%, the other 40% being fundamental. This is why we continuously get undervalued companies who go through a process of rerating and hence arbitrage situations arise as will be case with BPRG.

Likewise, dont get me wrong Im on your side but just trying to justify my comments. The global drug market is worth in excess of $1000 Billion, of which 70% is based on oral drugs.

As Gelatin will die and today XGEL is the only real alternative in its finished state (fully patented), so 10 a share is very realistic in the years ahead. The higher valuations (100) per share will probably never be reached as BPRG will most likely merge or be taken over.

This is a revolution in encapsulatin not just the drug industry but so many different fields. This is a mini revolution in the making.

PS I wont post it on the other threads anymore.

Best Wishes

Thanks for the information nematode, nice to see some constructive comments.

Lots of potential

lots and lots of potential

sorry

OK Post 429 well worth the read...cheers

It appears bid being prepared but may not come in until after SEO case.

SEO likely to leave it until 24th hour and then try to settle out of court leaving Scherer free to put in bid. Alternatively, if bid not attractive to key shareholders (unlikely to be hostile as Scherer will need to work with BPRG's expertise and existing set-up), we may see Scherer take an equity stake in BPRG.

I don't think we need to look in terms of ONE major license for the technology GH referred to as being close to completion. We are surely looking at major, major newsflow for BPRG in April. In licensing terms THINK BIG, THINK TERRITORIES, THINK PLURAL. NOT TOO HARD TO SWALLOW IS IT!!

AS for Aquafilm THINK SIGNIFICANT REVENUES, THINK CLOSE TO 50% MARGIN, THINK SIGNIFICANT PROFIT FOR BPRG THIS YEAR JUST ON EXISTING AQUAFILM PRODUCTS. IMAGINING THE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL OF NEW DRUG DELIVERY PRODUCTS JUST GIVES ME A HEADACHE. WHAT COULD I TAKE THAT WOULD CURE IT QUICKLY !!!! ANY IDEAS OUTSIZECLOTHES.COM?? Everyone missed your post LOL

In addition to Aquafilm profits we should have globally known product on the shelf for two technologies or three technologies late this year plus ostomy revenues coming in early next year.

Brokers note should be fun reading I reckon but seems more pressing things happening!! People have spoken about year end share prices of 250p or 300p by year end. If BPRG are not taken out before hand I believe that will happen by JULY. We may trade around these levels before the fun starts but start it will and meanwhile it looks like a brief opportunity for those quick enough to grasp it.

LOOKS LIKE APRIL IS GOING TO BE A BUSY MONTH. ENJOY !!!

Whats this about an approach is someone just stirring things up? Who has mentioned a takeover or am I getting my wires crossed?