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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

crostrad - 28 Nov 2005 11:00 - 418 of 1009

Or maybe it's the other way 'round !

oppo - 29 Nov 2005 09:26 - 419 of 1009

A bit of a recovery for RTD lets hope it continues.

55011 - 29 Nov 2005 09:46 - 420 of 1009

Very tight for size, a mere 7,500 offered but 25,000 on the bid. Looking good for the bulls.

55011 - 29 Nov 2005 10:24 - 421 of 1009

MMs trying to strangle this or what? On line offer now down to a measly 1,500. What was that about the obligation to make a two way price?

Should see another upward move 'ere long, now

55011 - 29 Nov 2005 10:48 - 422 of 1009

Another move, and back to 7,500 offer versus 25,000 bid. Followers of this should bear in mind that the numerical year's high of 38p is equivalent to 190p now. So there is some way to go.

biffa18 - 29 Nov 2005 10:55 - 423 of 1009

Caution is reqed i think as some accounts will not be available yet so maybe once all is back to normal you might get a sell off ...but reports of record online trading etc can only make this share more appealing

biffa18 - 29 Nov 2005 10:59 - 424 of 1009

just been offered 1.24 for mine so on the up for the moment i think the 1.50 is in sight

oppo - 29 Nov 2005 11:10 - 425 of 1009

I don't see any reason for a sell off now outlook is positive.A good trading update should see this move up. Lets hope CC can get it right this time.

55011 - 29 Nov 2005 11:12 - 426 of 1009

Biffa, that was indeed the case for the first hour or so yesterday morning. Hence no trading first thing. While some portfolios on the online systems might be innacurate, (such as Squaregain who are being rather tardy, and showing incorrect EPICs), it is now tradable as normal.

biffa18 - 29 Nov 2005 14:31 - 427 of 1009

well have they sold or bought ...re announcement

biffa18 - 29 Nov 2005 14:40 - 428 of 1009

sorry about that was a bit lazy ....i see they have topped up

Fundamentalist - 29 Nov 2005 14:40 - 429 of 1009

Looks like they have increased marginally from 4.89% to 5.05% (an extra 650K shares)

daves dazzlers - 29 Nov 2005 14:51 - 430 of 1009

All helps steve,,just passing,,later.

Fred1new - 29 Nov 2005 14:59 - 431 of 1009

Patience, at least sp is going in right direction but th volumes are still small. I think it needs a few days for all the changes to sink in.

55011 - 29 Nov 2005 15:13 - 432 of 1009

A correction to 426 above. With Squaregain, (and maybe with others), part of the RTD holding is not tradable. I find this odd, as no new issue shares were involved, just the consolidation. It smacks of inefficiency, and those considering online brokers might like to bear this in mind for the future.

The online offer has closed in again, to only 5,000 a pop. Seems to be a few selling their new issue (as consolidated) for profit, but maybe hanging on to their core holdings for a further rise

Is it likely that there could be a trading update so soon after these corporate events, I wonder?

pachandl - 29 Nov 2005 16:08 - 433 of 1009

55011 - most are currently assuming an update in the first week of December as seems to have happened on previous occasions. Perhaps this will not happen if RTD are simply meeting current market expectations rather than exceeding them.

55011 - 30 Nov 2005 10:36 - 434 of 1009

Key will be the rapidity of integration of the new acquisition. RTD have experience so I do not expect any problems.

Another rise today, despite the spread, which has now closed a bit.

Fundamentalist - 30 Nov 2005 10:40 - 435 of 1009

55011

Tend to disagree about the key. To me the key will be demonstation that they are managing to grow the CNP business and turn the growth in transactions into increased turnover/profit and hence shareholder value. For the company to trade on a higher pe rating they need to be seen, as they were a year or two ago, as a high growth tech co. If the growth is still absent in CNP (and the decline in CP continues) then they will become valued purely on the fuel card business in which organic growth is seen as limited (most of the recent growth has been fuelled by oil price rises and acquisition)

55011 - 30 Nov 2005 11:59 - 436 of 1009

Agree with you re CNP development. I believe the centre of gravity of RTD has now shifted towards the fuelcard side of the business. I believe that will give RTD a more reliable revenue base, and anything from CNP growth will give a gearing effect. I don't see oil/petrol prices falling very far.


Fundamentalist - 30 Nov 2005 12:01 - 437 of 1009

I think you are right re the gravity which is quite disappointing compared to the prospects 18 mths ago (remember the good old days douggie)

Also agree re oil/petrol prices though cant see continued growth from what is a high base so the concern is where will any organic growth come from, especially as we know CP is continuing to decline
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