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I thought you may have taken profit today. Heres hoping they finally announce the pulmonary deal - otherwise the next news is likely to be the half year results.

SKP needs an announcement to break that trend channel from
the end of November.

Today's bounce petered out at the previous high close, Macd looks
like it's about to roll over, 20Ma has reached the 40Ma.

I won't short this stock, as one bit of good news or a takeover
rumour will send it soaring. But I'm chary of holding it when it
reaches a previous high or the top of the trend channel.
Only ever buy it on support and take the bounce profit.
I'll never buy it in no-mans land between support and resistance.

Melnibone.

below is the copy og Tom Hougards email that i recieve

Good morning



I have been thinking long and hard over the state of the market over the last 72 hours. Friday was not a trading day so I sat and looked over the charts to try and get an idea of what Wall Street is thinking. I looked over all the cycles I know of and all the data I have collected over the years.



The conclusion is that I dont know!



I agree I can do better than that, so allow me to run you through my thought process.



The SP500 peaked in March 2000 at 1554. This marked the end of the bull market as we know it and a two year bear market ensued. The bear market ended on a lovely harmonic cycle on the 10th October 2002. On that day the SP500 registered a 50% loss from the all-time high. This of course is a classical bear market characteristic.



Since then the market has rallied relentlessly and over the summer of 2003 had the ability to make my life miserable. I was calling for a top at this stage and lost out on some of the rally from 9200 to 9600. I got the top of the 19th February 2004. I am particular pleased with that call because it cemented in my mind the hidden beauty in the markets. On that day the cycle came in perfectly. On the same day the SP500 had regained 50% of what it had lost in the bear market decline. That is also a classic bear market characteristic.



Since the high on the 19th February we have made a lower high in early April. We made a perfect low at 1075 (it was a perfect low because it saw the market make an equal wave retracement) and have since rallied back up to the 1140 area.



I use several different kinds of forecasting tools. Some are based on natural cycles, some are based on Fibonacci cycles, and some are based on planetary cycles. So far this year they have been accurate in picking highs and lows.



The Fibonacci Spiral that I have shown repeatedly over the last 3 months on this email has been a very good indicator of the market turns. The most remarkable cluster of dates is coming in at the end of the month of June. There will be a very significant turn coming towards the end of the month. I am pretty sure about that.



I have solved most of the month for the Market Map. The turns look like we will see lower prices for the coming week, but then the cycles turn hard up again. As it is incredibly time consuming to solve for more than a few days at a time I will have to make due with two weeks of forecast.



The conclusion from a cycle point of view is that a major turn in the stock market is coming. I favour it to be a low for a reason I may not have mentioned before. We are in an election year in the US. The typical pattern of the election year is lower prices into the June/July period and then higher into November. So far the market is setting up perfectly for this pattern.



Of course it does not stop there. Have you ever heard of the Bradley astrological model? It is usually very accurate and has been over the last 4 years. This model goes straight down for the rest of the year with very few rallies at all.



Unfortunately I could go on and on, presenting diverse signals. It does not serve your purpose and I certainly dont want to waste your time. I will keep you updated on the cycles as they appear. I have 3 4 mentors who together have more than 150 years of trading and forecasting experience. Two of them are saying up and two of them are saying down. How is that for mentoring? J



The conclusion is that I can see the see bullish potential and I can see the bearish potential. It is very easy to see the bearish potential when you pull out your charts for the financial companies. They have had a 15% correction over the last couple of months and are trying to base. Keep an eye on them because they will give you the clue of the direction of the market. I am talking about stocks like Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Citi Group, and JPM to mention a few. I will short weakness in these stocks but not strength as they could be basing here for another leg up.



This week is the expiration week. The trend set in expiration is statistically significant in the sense that a negative expiration usually means more selling in the week after. I am watching the market right now and will short below 1130 in the SP500 with a stop above 1133. This is not advice in any shape or form. This is what I am doing. You must make your own conclusions. Tuesday should offer another opportunity to short the market as Wednesday should see more weakness.



I think I will leave it for now. My final advice (although I dont give advice per se) is that a move is coming. It will be a significant move and you really should try to make an effort on board. Right now it is looking like a bearish move. For those of you who know about my mirror image chart, you will know the importance of the last rally last week. This was all factored into this chart and from here onwards it is a one way street into the abyss.



Stay on your toes ladies and gentlemen. I can almost guarantee that the rest of the month will be exciting.



Tom

Had to go out for most of the afternoon, but got back just in time to see the last wee while.

Find myself sitting on 3 longs, all oil stocks - JKX, MRS, PLR.

Thanks to MRS I've had another nice blue day, although the pullback has cut into profits a bit. Seems quite a bit selling in the auction on some SETSmm's I monitor, but anything can happen with our US cousins.

Sorry a few have not had it so easy today. Never the best way to start a week as you often think you have to chase and get it back. Market looks weak, so will be looking for short candidates later I suppose.

Have a good evening all.

closed ctm 5.25+ now long - Mega Bucks