Griffin Mining

GFM is now within 10 days of commencing production and as it has stock piled zinc ore during the mine construction period the company should be in a position to forecast with confidence that it will comfortably beat not only the brokers current forecast but also the later extrapolated projections prepared by me to reflect the prevailing higher zinc price. Those projections were for earnings of 3.33p this year and 12.1p for 2006.
The income will also facilitate a more extensive drilling and exploration programme, not just for more zinc, but also gold so there is scope for a steady and positive news flow after the 15 May production start date and the publication of their results around that time.
The shares have been overlooked by the market as the current price does not reflect the transition from pure exploration company to production/income producing status.

Surely this sp should not be going down. The company confirms all that they said would happen has or is happening within the timescale and budget. It would be perverse if this company got caught up in any shake-out of exploration companies, particularly since it is a now fully funded producer with the cashflow to carry out any more exploration from its own resources.

Sharesure this is a crazy price for Griffin but it seems to me that it is being pushed up and down for short term traders. I think this is just a buying opportunity and I have just topped up again. Hopefully this will be the last time that Griffin sees this price. Once production starts it should really fly.
Di

Looks like the major ramper on advfn is now deramping under his other guise (tourtured soul) - I'm undecided whether to pull the plug myself - chart looks non too good!

Sod the charts and the derampers...Griffin has been the only miner to my knowledge that has kept its promises todate. Have patience it will not stay below 30p for long. The potential is huge.
Di

Do you mean Raven ?

Aldwick there are so many Derampers on Advfn it is like a mad house reading the posts on there for any stock...not worth reading except occasionally some one gets hold of proper info.
Di

Reassuring to hear from you all and know that there are others who rate this stock; I have no intention of selling my shares unless there is some big change in the news, either with the company or China. The chairman has always claimed that on the basis of what they originally found the value/share was 100p. But since then they have improved their find and the zinc price has gone up; it defies logic that the sp remains so flat even if the chairman's view is ambitious.
I heard a comment that local Chinese are prepared to pay a considerable premium for local supplies of zinc to save the cost and logistics of importing it so there should be an instant and easy cashflow from the processing now happening. The company's broker seems to be very pedestrian in getting the company the recognition it deserves. Maybe a weekend paper will do the job for them.

The Investors Chronicle made a mistake stating Griffin had no gold licence. They got it wrong. I spoke to Griffin and they said they have a gold licence. The IC said they would print a retraction this week.

GFM (along with many others) appears to be suffering from forced selling by the hedge funds.
It seems they heavily invested in commodity related AIM funds months ago, however a fortnight ago they (or some of them) were badly burnt in the corporate bond market when GM's bonds were downgraded, forcing them to raise lots of cash in the market. To do this they had to sell some of their recently aquired AIM stock - hence the fall in AIM stocks across the board as the mm's knew they had them by the short and curlys.
The question for GFM holders now is just how badly the hedge funds are burnt and whether they will have to continue their dumping of stock. Not an easy call for us retail investors who will only find out a fortnight or so after the boys in the City!

Well Brian...I can see how that would affect GFM's price but any day now we are gong to hear that full mining production has started so I woul have thought that the Hedge funds will opt to dump other longer term mining stocks. Either way the price will rise once mining commences IMHO
Di

Hopefully!
I guess it's a testament to GFM's quality that it hasn't fallen further as the hedge funds have apparently been forced to sell their best quality AIM stocks first. (The crap stuff was marked down too fast by the all knowing mm's and the only buyers of the rubbish were short sellers closing and some unfortunate Bulletin Board readers).

1 mil trade gone through as unknown - very interesting !!

We know that RAB sold their 15%, but do we know who's got it ?

No but I wish it was me :-(

When I talked to GFM recently they stated that everything was on track for production but actual date was delayed by approx. one week, presumably to fix minor bugs in the plant. Not a bad record to miss by such a small margin.
As for the Investor's Chronicle comment re the gold licence, it really makes you wonder how they do their research to get such an elementary comment wrong!
I have had bad experiences following their mining predictions, so let's hope that their rating of 'fairly valued' is also wide of the mark, but on the pessimistic side. If Shares mag.'s assessment of Zincox is anything to go by they must view GFM a strong buy; there should be a write-up tomorrow following the results published last week.

Sharesure,

I really don't think the journos research every share, they wouldn't have time, they simply digest information given to them by brokers, analysts, and the PR guys IMO.

That is why a lot of the articles are similar, because they had the same source.

Shares Mag seems to have avoided commenting on GFM yet again in spite of the Results last week. Maybe they don't cover the mining sector anymore! Anyone else feel like writing to editor Jeremy Lacey to ask why no mention of them. I am sure they could write a more accurate and believable appraisal than Investor's Chronicle managed, but how long before they get around to it!

Sharesure,

Shares Magazine certainly DOES cover the mining sector, as an example, see today's edition, page 34!
"The Prospector" is a regular, and good, weekly column IMO.

There are thousands of shares on the LSE, Shares Magazine can only mention a fraction each week, as can the IC.

To expect them to feature Griffin over others that may also have good results or equally interesting stories, may be asking a lot. Maybe you should be asking why Griffin's PR guys aren't pushing the story more?

The IC comment that I saw was in the results section, and was only a small comment, of one sentence, certainly not an article.

Which IC was the appraisal you refer to in please?

It would appear that minestart is already priced in, so on that basis a Shares article won't help raise the price, as a negative comment in the IC last week didn't lower it either.

Andy,

Even with minestart already priced in , when it starts you are going to get a lot of retail investers buying in, and profit taking if it moves up , but also mention in the press, and there is always a bid lurking in the background,that 15% RAB holding might be with one now.

aldwick,

Well Oxus minetstart was an anti climax, and with the current soft market sentiment, I wouldn't bet on a flood of retail buys, it MAY not happen!

re Rab's 15%, yes it would be interesting to see where that went.