The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

But i want a new car now... Tee hee!

So Tokyo, given CG's clarification you would suggest we increase our LONG position...but by how much?

johngtudor - I'm just telling you that I am happy to increase my position, I don't like suggesting what other people should or shouldn't do, go over the posts for the last week or so on this board, and do what you feel comfortable with, I've been holding for quite a while so can afford to ride out the ups & downs which I'm sure are coming over the next couple of weeks, I'd would suggest however that you do not buy any shares on T10 trades, as then the pressure will really be on, I feel comfortable holding and adding where I can

Tokyo

Support @ 120 I'm in for another 10k @ 122.7

Tokyo: Thanks your feedback. Please clarify 'T10 trades'?

afternoon all,
tokyo,
do you buy on-line or over the phone?,i`m not sure but i think that it `s slightly different rules,unless the stock market is a different beast.
i just totted up my situation,my average cost per share is only 38.95p!!,just wish i had more dosh when started.i`m new to this only started nov 03,and by my research PET isn`t the only co.that can go sky high,short term anyway.plenty have done it this year alone.
not teaching anyone to suck eggs,but it might be worth checking FOGL when it floats next week,at 40p i think,it just seams at the moment that you only have to mention oil and gas,and china and the sp price goes mad!.another one thats cheap is Chaco resources(suspended at the mo.)i think this might be worth a quick in and out IMO only,
regards,
dexter

Hi Tokyo, been reading your comments with interest, personally I think we should all stay she's gonna blow soon!

Havent had the 30p luxury but still 52p fine for me!

Yours Tooney

(Gatwick Area, Sussex)

johngtudor - T10 where you buy shares on credit and settle after 10 days, there are T3, T10 & T25 accounts afraid I don't use them, so my knowledge stops there.

dexter01 - I buy on-line through comdirect have found them to be the best when trading, apart from my visa card problem, which I'll sort out when I'm back in december. dexter01 - where are you located in the uk?

over on the advfn thread they are talking about a huge piss up if PET goes through the roof, I'll be back in december and would be up for a piss up & meeting some fellow investors, perhaps flying over to Ireland for the weekend. What do you guys think?

Tokyo

tokyo,
kings lynn area in norfolk,you know,where they interbreed so much it`s not that they don`t know their arse from their elbow,their elbow sprouts from their arse.!!!!!!
dexter

wow evening all - nice little roller coaster ride so far, to add a little bit more fun to the mix over here, we have just had an earthquake, my whole study just shook, a little more than a tremor that one!!!!

Tokyo

So maybe that tremor was in some cosmic way linked to PET, as the rise last week was the tremor, and soon there will be a full blown quake... Not for you of course, well in a monetary way, i suppose it could be you, anyway... I'll get my coat...

Hi,

I do not know what I imagined is wrong or right, just guess sth of PETs fair market value if it at least gets one risk-sharing contract.

Below is my calculation. I make it as quite conservative because I do not know so much actually. Just make a quick and simple calculation for a rough reference.

Project tender 1

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
oil/day m barrel 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Oil price (US$40/barrel) 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Daily m 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Year X 365 days (m) 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973
Net Profit 60% (m) 60% 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584

PET profit share with at only 10% (m) 10% 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4

P/E ratio as moderate level of 18
Discount rate 1/ 18 = 5.6% 5.6%
Discount factor 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.81 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.65 0.61 0.58 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.47
PV (m) 58.40 55.33 52.41 49.66 47.04 44.57 42.22 40.00 37.89 35.90 34.01 32.22 30.52 28.92 27.40


Total NPV (m) 616.48
Total diluted share (m) 65

Share price (100 p) 9.48




I do not know the deal content at all. Just imagine sth based on the information everyone knows now.

So, if one risk-sharing contract (say 10% of profit share), market fair value shall be 950p, if 2, shall be 1900p, if 3, shall be 2800P. But any extra conditions can change this to become more lucrative if oil price set in this simple sheet is not $40, but $45, if profit share is not 10%, but 15% ; if .

But if you take risks factors (discount ratio 20% as suggested in their 2004 slides), the value will still be 500p at least for each tender granted. It is the half of its market fair value calculated above.

The above is totally my own guess and imagination, not the real. So what you think? I know my sheet is too simple but at least I shall say I try to work out what the roof shall be in PETs case, am I?

i think that's true...

that would be nice, but it could still go up in flames. all or nowt

Hi dexter. Lynn eh? Im from the Diss area in norfolk. Do you know it? Ive got a very good friend who lives in Brancaster who also is in PET from my recomendation. I also work round that area. Do you know linton?

wilbs

wilbs, I went to Diss high school, moved away four years ago, my parents live Norwich way!

amazing how the 'target' has changed on this one...3 months ago peoples were talking aout 'if only we can get one contract'...now there is so much postive news ref PET/Iraqi government having meetings, disucssions, training etc etc ...that now it sems that a betting man ( we are not gamblers though are we) would be making 2 contract wins the favourite, followed very closely by 3 or more. It is now almost a case of no contracts being the outsider.
would it now be

evens..........2 contracts or more
2/1............only one contract
9/4 ......no contracts

Just a topic to trigger a thought provoking response, although no bets being laid of course.

However with me averaging out at 44.9p I may have to change ny pseudonym if we get the 3 contracts that everyone seems to be suggesting are strong possibilities..any ideas for a suitable name for me if we win ( sorry when we win) all 3....go go go all you PETS

morning wilbs,
i don`t know linton,but have deen to diss a few(or foo as they say!) times,pretty little town.how long have you been in PET?.what is your view as to contracts etc?,mine is two,bordering on all three.
regards,
dexter

4/7 2 contracts
evens 1 contract
10/1 no contracts
66/1 pet oil wells get bombed after contract win
100/1 pet employee/s get kidnapped
1/50 i make a fortune from pet
almost forgot 6/1 3 contracts

Hi,

I do not know what I imagined is wrong or right, just guess sth of PETs fair market value if it at least gets one risk-sharing contract.

Below is my calculation. I make it as quite conservative because I do not know so much actually. Just make a quick and simple calculation for a rough reference.

Project tender 1

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
oil/day m barrel 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Oil price (US$40/barrel) 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Daily m 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Year X 365 days (m) 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973
Net Profit 60% (m) 60% 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584

PET profit share with at only 10% (m) 10% 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4

P/E ratio as moderate level of 18
Discount rate 1/ 18 = 5.6% 5.6%
Discount factor 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.81 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.65 0.61 0.58 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.47
PV (m) 58.40 55.33 52.41 49.66 47.04 44.57 42.22 40.00 37.89 35.90 34.01 32.22 30.52 28.92 27.40


Total NPV (m) 616.48
Total diluted share (m) 65

Share price (100 p) 9.48




I do not know the deal content at all. Just imagine sth based on the information everyone knows now.

So, if one risk-sharing contract (say 10% of profit share), market fair value shall be 950p, if 2, shall be 1900p, if 3, shall be 2800P. But any extra conditions can change this to become more lucrative if oil price set in this simple sheet is not $40, but $45, if profit share is not 10%, but 15% ; if .

But if you take risks factors (discount ratio 20% as suggested in their 2004 slides), the value will still be 500p at least for each tender granted. It is the half of its market fair value calculated above.

The above is totally my own guess and imagination, not the real. So what you think? I know my sheet is too simple but at least I shall say I try to work out what the roof shall be in PETs case, am I right?


Following by yesterday post,

I present you antoher quick way of share price caculation.


If earning of PET stays 54m per year (only one 10% risk sharing contract and 60% profitability for the project revenue stated as above) and take BP's PE ratio 24 currently (of course, BP's risk is far lower than PET, but when PET can take 24, it means Iraq has become quite stable.

so, simple calculation is

Market capitalisation: earning X PE ratio

54m * 24 = 1296 m

total diluted share: 65m

so fair value share price shall be : 1296m/65m = 19.9 per share


remember: it is just for one contract !!


if 2: 19.9 * 2 = 40.00

if 3: 19.9 * 3 = 60.00 per share

even you take quite high risk consideration, say PE ratio shall stay low say 8,

the fair value of share price still shall be at least


risk sharing contracts:

1. 7/share

2. 14/share

3. 20 /share

If the price is not going that range, the company will be too cheap to become the target of take-over because it is undervalue .

am I right? who can tell me?

I am look forward to seeing that within 1-2 year PET share goes as high as 60.00 / per share at current level total diluted share amount.

It is not joke.


for those who bought from 0.30/share, potential is 60.00

so profitablity is 200 times for holding 3 years, not bad.

but of course, the risks are great as well.

I do not know I am right or not, who can tell me? the above is all of my guess, not real yet.