cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
HARRYCAT
- 03 Apr 2009 12:40
- 4200 of 21973
Thanks all. Having got back from walking the dog, DOW futures are now showing -4 points, so as I have said before, looking at futures figures too early isn't always much of a guide.
Maybe it will be the non-farm payroll & the jobless figures which will turn the market. Failing that, Bernanke is addressing the nation later in the day! Lets hope the feelgood factor persists.
Falcothou
- 03 Apr 2009 13:34
- 4201 of 21973
663k 3 less than expected,what now?
cynic
- 03 Apr 2009 13:38
- 4202 of 21973
think they were actually much as expected, and certainly Dow is now indicating +81 ...... i'm off to my excellent fishmonger and shall consider further on my return ..... common sense prob says do nowt, and my gut feel is still that NY (and maybe London) will finish red
Falcothou
- 03 Apr 2009 13:45
- 4203 of 21973
Talking of fish I gather that part of the reason that there are so many Somali pirates is that illegal foreign fishing companies harvest heir crop in their waters whilst other unscrupulous ships dump poisonous cargoes into the sea there, hope your monger sources locally!
cynic
- 03 Apr 2009 14:28
- 4204 of 21973
not sure when there would ever have been an abundance of fish in Persian (sic!) Gulf that would have fed the current much-enlarged population ...... in any case, the Somali coast has been the happy hunting ground for pirates for several centuries, as a single boat = a multitude of netsful of fish!
anyway, hake from Cornwall I believe, oysters from Mersea and decent unsoaked scallops from somewhere off UK
HARRYCAT
- 03 Apr 2009 14:38
- 4205 of 21973
I see the recession has passed you by, Cynic!!! ;o)
What's the matter with cod & chips with mushy peas?
cynic
- 03 Apr 2009 14:40
- 4206 of 21973
too damn expensive!
HARRYCAT
- 03 Apr 2009 19:52
- 4207 of 21973
"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said programs to unfreeze credit markets are working."
Sentiment certainly seems to be changing for the better. Hopefully time to start looking for growth/early cyclical stocks ready for the good times.
Falcothou
- 06 Apr 2009 14:50
- 4208 of 21973
Dax short from this morning(seemed the most over valued) doing ok, would like to try holding it for dow 5600 but that would require far too much discipline!
cynic
- 06 Apr 2009 21:01
- 4209 of 21973
a pretty strong finish in NY sees Dow remaining comfortably above the 7900 support .... london may well open quite perky
Falco .... i think your short on the basis that Dow is still waiting to crash is a brave call
ThePublisher
- 06 Apr 2009 22:18
- 4210 of 21973
"a pretty strong finish in NY"
Half a percent down ???
TP
cynic
- 07 Apr 2009 07:27
- 4211 of 21973
yes, indeed a pretty strong finish as Dow was down >3x that earlier in the session, but rallied well
Falcothou
- 07 Apr 2009 07:48
- 4212 of 21973
I converted my dax short into a dax/ftse pairs trade when dow at 7870 as they have diverged considerably though they could diverge more!I don't think the bottom is in and I think 5500 will be on cards though timing it is the key!
HARRYCAT
- 07 Apr 2009 20:15
- 4213 of 21973
I trust all you shorters are profiting nicely from the DOW decline?
Bloomberg - "Its a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around, Soros said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, referring to the rebound in stocks since March 9. This isnt a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.
The first quarter will be a reality check for investors, and they will be focusing on guidance, said Charles Dautresme, a strategist at Axa Investment Managers, which oversees $651 billion in Paris. Well decline from this bear-market rally, but have established a floor on March 9 and thats positive.
cynic
- 07 Apr 2009 21:34
- 4214 of 21973
Alcoa reports a loss of 59 cents a share in the first quarter - bigger than expected. ...... it's only a couple of cents out, but more interestingly, Dow indicator has firmed 20 or so points after this (after hours) announcement rather than dumping as might have been expected, and Alcoa's shares have also rallied 2%
HARRYCAT
- 10 Apr 2009 08:52
- 4215 of 21973
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- "The dollar advanced against the euro, heading for the biggest weekly gain in three months, on speculation the worst of the financial crisis is over in the worlds largest economy.
The Dollar Index completed its largest weekly advance since November after Wells Fargo & Co.s profit beat estimates yesterday, triggering the steepest gain on record in the Standard & Poors 500 Banks Index."
"Bullion is now about 12 percent below the 11-month high above $1,000 set in February. This week it fell as low as $864.30 to its lowest level since Jan. 23, and looks set to end the week down about 1 percent.
Investors have begun to sell safe-haven gold and buy other assets including stocks as equities markets have risen on hopes that massive fiscal stimulus packages implemented in various countries may help get the world economy back in a recovery path."
Presumably this now means that the demand for gold as safe haven will diminish, the price of gold will also decrease, as is now happening slowly thus putting pressure on the share price of the gold miners? Time to be moving out of gold related stocks???
cynic
- 16 Apr 2009 10:06
- 4216 of 21973
i confess to becoming a little nervous of this current rally, not so much because the world's economies have perhaps just about bottomed out, but because all the minnows are jumping all over the place almost indiscriminately - e.g. OXB, CFR, VIY, RKH and any number of others.
it looks to me, and i am very happy to have profited from it along the way, there is actually very little proper news to justify many of these large rises ...... for sure, the afficionados of these stocks will all get very excited and say the true worth of these companies is being recognised again, but my gut feeling is one of considerable caution (did i hear scepticism?) as to me it is all beginning to look very frothy, especially among the minnow stocks.
dealerdear
- 16 Apr 2009 10:51
- 4217 of 21973
Maybe so but the fact that minnows are being re-rated shows to me that even if we have a pullback, the worse may well be over and a recovery is under way unless of courses this is all a false dawn and the economy is about to crash. Like you though it is a time to make your money and get out, just in case ...
Strawbs
- 16 Apr 2009 10:59
- 4218 of 21973
I suspect it's a combination of low volume (city still on Easter hols), some bear squeezing/short closing because of the new tax year, and people itching to reinvest as things 'appear' to have bottomed out.
No doubt a great oppertunity for the active trader, but probably just another bear market rally. I suspect May will bring a different direction to the markets.....if the old saying is to be believed.
I thought minnows always did crazy things....
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
Falcothou
- 17 Apr 2009 08:43
- 4219 of 21973
http://www.cfdtrading.com/story/Equities_Reports/Asian_Equity_Markets/Technicals
Make or break for the bulls at this juncture. Key resistance for Nikkei,S@p,ASX whilst Dax is attempting dow parity!Options expiry today. Friday. Approaching the dreaded May.This rally has been supposedly a dash for trash(retailers/banks/housebuilders) the winners of the last boom.In the 1930's there were 5 25%+ rallies averaging 35 days,not that I'm bearish or anything!