Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Bloody Capital Spreads - GBP starts tumbling and their FX suddenly goes tits up - conspiracy or cock up - I'm for conspiracy ;(

Oh no, not the old papal conspiracy theory.
Dontcha just hate it when that happens.

BoE MPC's Bean and Bell voted for quarter point rate cut at June 9 meeting
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Two members of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee surprisingly voted for a quarter point rate cut at the last rate-setting meeting on June 9, with the other seven voting in favour of keeping the key repo rate unchanged at 4.75 pct.

The minutes to the meeting, published this morning, showed that the central bank's chief economist Charlie Bean and outgoing MPC member Marian Bell said a quarter point rate reduction 'might obviate' the need for a larger cut later.

'While there were arguments in favour of waiting for more information before taking action, that risked the slowdown in consumption becoming more entrenched,' they said, according to the minutes.

News that there were two members actually voting for a rate cut may well cement expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates by August.

Most Bank watchers had predicted that a unanimous vote in favour of holding rates, with possibly deputy governor Andrew Large voting for a quarter point hike again.

The minutes showed that Bean and Bell argued that the evidence over the last month was enough to warrant a cut, and pointed to the further weakness in the euro zone, the downside risks to the outlook for growth following disappointing economic news and diminishing demand pressures in the economy.

They also argued that it now seemed that much of the recent rise in inflation had reflected higher oil and other commodity prices through the supply chain, rather than the pressure of excess demand on supply capacity.

'Although output growth had so far been fairly resilient in the face of weaker consumption, GDP growth was likely to be weaker than in the May Inflation Report central projection, notwithstanding the shift in market interest rates (downwards),' the doves said, according to the minutes.

'Inflation might therefore be below target in the medium term,' they said.

In May's Inflation Report, which incidentally was compiled by Bean, the BoE predicted that CPI inflation would rise above target in the short-term but settle back around the 2.0 pct target over the two-year horizon as growth slowed down towards the trend rate, thought to be around 2.5 pct a year.

The majority on the committee agreed that the news on world demand had been slightly on the downside over the last month and that a succession of weaker surveys suggested that the risks to the near-term Inflation Report output projections were on the downside too.

However, they noted that those surveys tended to be drawn largely from manufacturing, which only accounts for around 20 pct of GDP, as against the services sector, which accounts for around 70 pct.

They also noted that the newsflow hinted at a slight easing of labour market conditions.

Overall they said the two key risks identified in the May Inflation Report had concerned the outlook for consumption and the rise in CPI inflation to 1.9 pct and that these risks remained unresolved.

'Although there was no new information on the latter, on the former there were signs that household spending growth might have stabilised, albeit at a low rate,' they said.

In addition, they argued that a rate cut now would be a 'significant surprise' and would run the risk of the inference being drawn that the MPC believed the situation had deteriorated more than it, in fact, had.

'And if the latest consumption indicators, in fact, presaged a return to stronger domestic demand growth, a reduction in rates now might accelerate the recovery in consumption growth and lead to inflationary pressures,' they said.

pp/jkm/

Just tried a quick short on Cable from just below resistance at 1.8226; thank goodness for stops!!!

I've updated the weekly calendar this weekend and I'm happy to update it again next weekend too, but that will be my last time as I shalln't be around after early July.

I don't know whether the FX Fairy will want to continue updating it each week or whether somebody else will want to set up a new thread. I thought I'd give you a little bit of notice so that you can decide what you want to do. I've also got the html saved with all the links from the original header if it's needed.

Hils
Are you running away with Golddog

hilary - where are you off to? have you made your millions & are retiring?

Day off today, so had a bit of a play, nicked 25 points on cable.
The fact I was able to was mainly down to hilary!!

hilary,

Please tell me this is not a permanent goodbye, I owe you so much with regard to this market, as do many others, I would hate to think you are disappearing completely...:-(

SC

Hil:

Email sent.

D

I'm not actually going anywhere (apart from a few weeks with GoldDog in Spain during the summer), but Sue's right in so far as I do intend to semi-retire.

My interest in stocks is now pretty minimal and I am limiting my FX trading to just one trade a day with a view to being out of the market around mid-morning. That's enough for me and I hope that it will help me to raise my tennis game.

As my trading is 100% chart based from the FXCM feeds, I find that many of the tools on this site are now surplus to requirements so I've therefore cancelled my am subscription. I'll still pop into Lambykins Dutch Coffeeshop from time to time for a slice of "special" cake and to check that Jeffmack is still wearing his Dutch Cap and to wind Dazzling Dave up. You can always leave a message for me there.

Hilary, sorry to hear you're no longer going to be on this thread. You deserve great credit for encouraging lots of us to look at Fx trading and for keeping the header updated. I still haven't mastered it but I'm convinced Fx is a great thing to trade, you can concentrate on the currencies and related news only, no worries about overnight profit warnings.

Once again, many thanks.

Rob. (aka the other SC)

hilary,
Time to move on then, as all things must, but it is a shame we will no longer have the benefit of your input, a great loss.
I hope you will accept my thanks for the help I received, and my best wishes for the future.

Regards,

SC (also the other one)

hilary

I will miss your magic touch. You lead this thread by example and constantly emphasise good trading practice.

All the best with your one trade a day, that is my new goal in life. I may however have to give up a little golf to achieve it.

Regards and all the best

Bob

well done on getting away from the screens! See you at the masters tennis in November at the Albert hall:)

Greenspan, Snow to meet senators on China policy Thurs.
AFX


WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will meet with Sens. Chuck Schumer and Lindsey Graham on 'China trade policy' Thursday, the Treasury Department announced Wednesday. The two lawmakers have introduced a bill that would penalize China if it is found to be manipulating its currency, the yuan, and another that would slap tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing doesn't force a revaluation of the yuan.



This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

The Euro has certainly missed the party that the US is having against the and Yen.
Yen staying under 111, pound above 1.7925?
Stop running on yen, could be a good short for post figures and post Tanken later tonight?

Hilary - the very best of luck. Thank you for all your help.

MG

Are you still shorting cable?

Sorry mate I haven't been at the screen all day - been out playing Golf this afternoon.

The answer is yes - still with the one I had from last Friday ;))))

Drinks on mg then...:-)

Great call by the way!