Exclusive: Ukip surge is costing Labour as many votes as Tories, research suggests
Andrew Grice Author Biography
Political Editor
Tuesday 10 June 2014
Ed Miliband has been warned that Labour’s declining support among working class voters, many of whom are defecting to Ukip, poses the biggest threat to his party’s prospects of winning next year’s general election.
A study by the Labour-affiliated Fabian Society found that a gradual drop in support among blue-collar workers since 2005 has now been exacerbated by the rise of Nigel Farage’s party, putting Labour’s general election strategy in jeopardy.
Its research found that Labour’s lead in nine parliamentary seats would be lost if the results of last month’s council elections were repeated next year. Six seats would go to Ukip and three to the Tories, who would overtake Labour as Ukip eats into its support. The Fabians fear this “Ukip effect” could deny Labour victory in dozens of the crucial Lab-Con marginals that will decide the election.
The analysis, seen by The Independent, says Labour’s view that Ukip was a “Tory problem” has been “blasted” by last month’s Euro and council elections, and that it is hurting Labour and the Tories almost equally. Although the Fabians believe Mr Miliband can still win next year’s election, they warn that he will do so only by winning back the blue-collar workers.
The report concludes bluntly: “If elections are about momentum, then the Conservatives seem to have more reason for optimism than Labour. Labour will need to up its game to have a chance of a majority in 2015.” It warns that relying on working-class supporters to achieve about 35 per cent of the vote “will be insufficient to win.”
Marcus Roberts, the Fabians’ deputy general secretary, said: “The greatest threat to Ed Miliband’s hopes is the loss of blue-collar support. The Fabians have laid out how Labour can build a coalition of 2010 loyalists, ex-Lib Dems, new and non-voters and a few Conservative converts to win. But declining blue-collar support eats into its loyalist base and, crucially, the potentially sympathetic 2010 non-voters Miliband can’t do without.”
More uncomfortable reading here:
http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/exclusive-ukip-surge-is-costing-labour-as-many-votes-as-tories-research-suggests-9523847.html