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Technical Analysis (TA)     

ptholden - 09 Jul 2007 23:14

I often find all manner of reference to Technical Analysis whilst reading threads, questioning certain elements, asking for advice on indicators and also requesting advice on a stock and whether it's a good time to buy, sell, hold or remain indifferent. I am the first to admit that my own TA is still in its infancy, but I do spend time on expanding my knowledge (hopefully in the right direction!).

Rather than having to ask a TA question on a particular thread, perhaps this thread could be used as a forum for TA queries and become a knowledge base. Just a thought, if there is little or no interest, the thread will sink without trace and that will be the end of that. I will personally add a few snippets to help those with less knowledge (if that's possible) to keep things rolling. There is a danger that the thread will receive countless requests for opinions on a variety of stocks and there is only so much I can do alone, therefore I would more than welcome input from other posters, no matter how rudimentary they believe their own knowledge to be, hopefully some real experts will take the time to contribute.

cynic - 09 Aug 2007 18:57 - 423 of 504

enjoy your hol ..... sorry you're out of RTN, but time will tell whether or not that was a good move .... figures out about 1st wekk Sept

ptholden - 09 Aug 2007 19:13 - 424 of 504

Apologies for not posting, but back at work away from home and the all important broadband connection, still reading but posting charts through a mobile phone connection is somewhat tedious.

Have a nice holiday Maggie :)

pth

cynic - 09 Aug 2007 21:15 - 425 of 504

phew! lucky alphonse!! .... went long on Dow and caught something of a cold, but made it virtually all back by reversing the position ...... however, all looks bleak for FTSE tomorrow ..... guess that will not hurt my SOLA short, but that's about it

maddoctor - 09 Aug 2007 21:16 - 426 of 504

massive trading volumes in new york , this is real

cynic - 09 Aug 2007 21:39 - 427 of 504

grim day in prospect tomorrow, but just as market (Dow) fell too fast, and recovered too fast, it has prob fallen too fast again, but there is that sneaking fear that we could now see the truly big sell-off ...... have mentioned a number of times that these very volatile markets have a nasty habit of being the prelude to just that

dynamix - 09 Aug 2007 22:07 - 428 of 504

yes Im with you there. C wave unfolding.

dynamix - 09 Aug 2007 22:10 - 429 of 504

RB. had a great run since first reversal bar. Shame it will mst likely end tomorrow.

basxl2.jpg

maddoctor - 09 Aug 2007 22:54 - 430 of 504

the dow would have to break 12k before i would declare a bear market

cynic - 10 Aug 2007 08:21 - 431 of 504

in that, you are prob technically right, but a further 1100 point fall will not do much for peeps confidence or bank balances!

confess that i had expected to see Dow indicator in blue first thing this morning, but it is off a further 70 points since i closed my pos last night ...... still, it's early hours and that is only indication ...... however, there is no doubt that this sub-prime thing is more than just spooking the markets ...... as far as i can determine, no knows or is telling excatly how deep-rooted or far-reaching this prob may be

Stan - 10 Aug 2007 08:30 - 432 of 504

And as we know what America does today we do...

cynic - 10 Aug 2007 08:37 - 433 of 504

from memory, and i'll try to check it out, there is an alleged(!) Dow support around 13200, which is where indicator now lies ..... can't say that encourages me take out a long pos though!

sned - 10 Aug 2007 15:24 - 434 of 504



Talking of analysis, what trading (inter-day??) indicators could have spotted such "good" movements as per CSR today?
At one time I had it down 18 pts? next we are up 14 pts ...

cynic - 14 Aug 2007 08:37 - 435 of 504

TAN - PT - can you consult your more sophisticated entrails ...... i posted on TAN site as below ...

"with sp now 143, there is an inclination to go out buy ...... however, sp has fallen sharply though 25+50 dma and i see no obvious support until perhaps 130"

Strawbs - 14 Aug 2007 09:28 - 436 of 504

Although it's dropped out of the up trend channel, it looks like it's trying to consolidate at these levels. You might therefore see a reasonable bounce (other market skeletons permiting) perhaps back to the 170 levels. The candlesticks appear to have a bullish pattern which would suggest a reversal of the recent downtrend. Difficult to be certain with all this volatility though.

In my opinion. Don't hold personally.

Strawbs.

Strawbs - 15 Aug 2007 16:33 - 437 of 504

At around 9 o'clock this morning I was starting to think my comments above where looking pretty stupid (they may still be), but the price has rallied strongly back to my "guessed" consolidation zone. The candlestick continues to appear bullish (looks like a hammer today) so maybe this technical analysis stuff isn't as daft as it looks. :-)

Having said all that, as Cynic would say it's much easier to call when you don't have a stake. I can guarantee you if I'd bought yesterday, I would've sold this morning at a loss. You definitely need nerves of steel in these markets.....

All in my opinion......still don't hold (and haven't done for ages)....

Strawbs.

cynic - 15 Aug 2007 16:40 - 438 of 504

was very glad to see TAN only down a few coppers by the close ....... much more importantly, Dow is behaving sensibly for the moment without any of the recent wild gyrations

Falcothou - 15 Aug 2007 18:35 - 439 of 504

Hands up who got taken out by the 10am stop loss plummet, quite bizarre!

cynic - 15 Aug 2007 18:48 - 440 of 504

pas moi! ....... rarely have stop losses in place for exactly that reason ...... am glad my little Dow long is (currently) proving profitable ...... hope Dow does not rocket away by say 250 points as that will just precipitate a swing back the other way

Falcothou - 15 Aug 2007 19:52 - 441 of 504

If you don't have stop losses you must be very disciplined and have a lot of screen time. I don't think stop losses work so well in these volatile times

Fred1new - 15 Aug 2007 20:24 - 442 of 504

The problem with stop losses in this type of market is the range of trading during day and the share price being pushed around by the market makers. The more I play with stop losses the more diifficult I find them to place. I think the best is work out what loss you can tolerate on a deal and stick to the appropriate stop loss.
Markets like they are at the moment are best watched until they settle down.


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