A well respected Pi has just bought in,so took a look and came up with this interesting post.
My Dad's (ex geologist) take:-
This is a worldclass deposit that has produced 7m ounces of gold so far and still has a resource of over 4m ounces with recent exploration pointing to more to come. Reserves of around 800k ounces, sufficient for the next eight years will be increased with infill drilling and new access from the inclined shaft now being developed from 18 to 21 level.
The mine closed due to high costs in 2006 when the gold price was circa $600. Final days struggling meant no development or maintenance and they resorted to highgrading around one of the shaft pillars which damaged it. Assume the price required for disciplined mining at reserve grade as a profitable going concern was 20% higher say $720. Now inflate that at 5-6% compound per annum to 2012 gives an equivalent gold price of around $1000 an ounce. (Not the suggested possible $800 from the ever optimistic management.) That kind of reduction can only occur in about three years time when the new green electric power station is up and running. So by year end august 2012 they might be approaching the long promised 100k ounce annual output at a true cost coverage rate of circa $1000 ounce. Meanwhile at a goldprice of perhaps $1800 and rising there should be $80m surplus at last. Allocate $25 for tax $30m for growth and exploration and $25m for a dividend to long suffering shareholders. If such dividend was 5% of market cap, then that cap would be $500m or £323m over five times the present sorry level of £0.59. It is clear that only gold price optimists would invest in this risky high cost producer but one does not have to be a raging goldbull to see attractive upside possibilities and very little downside left!
The management must be told to stick to their knitting and fully explore their fijian leases BUT NOT TO WASTE SHAREHOLDERS FUNDS EMPIRE BUILDING IN OTHER LANDS! There are many years life left in Vatukoula and shareholders can reallocate their dividends if they so desire as can management holders. Other valuation parameters; at todays market cap $91m resource ounces are valued at $23 per ounce few significant longlife economic deposits are being uncovered today as cheaply as this, then you could not build a new mine at such a small cost. UK mining analysts tend to be over conservative in their longterm gold price forecasts having been consistently wrong for the last ten years, on quite reasonable forecasts this mine can be very profitable again. Finally one has to hope that promoter Paxton has taken a leaf out of Peter Hambros book and is now under-forecasting this years 65k ounce output.
There is a new mine management team in place and development must be opening new stope faces by now, if they can make a slightly better job of sorting ore from waste, and putting higher grades through the mill the future will be bright. Q1 15.5 Q2 16.5 Q3 18 Q4 20 m ounces would get us to 70m ounces fingers crossed. There still remains the tantalising potential for new discoveries both within the mining lease already revealed and in the surrounding ground along the caldera rim. The best place to look for a mine is near a large mine.
Also this from Kingworld.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/20_London_Trader_-_We_are_Witnessing_a_Historic_Bottom_in_Gold.html