Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

bad logic
oil prices are not anywhere near earlier times when i recollect $150 was the rate
also, this is just a temporary glitch in supplies which can easily be made up by the usual guys

while higher fuel prices are indeed inflationary, it would not necessarily follow that interest rates would rise, as many other factors come into play, as well you know

Whats earlier times got to do with it.

The last inflation statement showed inflation was moving up very strongly whilst oil prices THEN were relatively low.

Any increase in oil prices is bound to move through the supply chain unless a company as hedged and even then they will move prices in line with the market and pocket the improved margin.

Sometimes I really do wonder about you, I take it for granted Hays is a bit slow but YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!

And you say its a temporary glitch????? are you sure.

The Yanks are net exporters now but show no signs of wanting to supply world markets with the up and coming increase in demand due to war and capture of oil Fields.

This could go on for years!!!!!!!!!

it already has :-)

i don't think iraq has been exporting much of anything for a long time, and that includes kurdistan
of course, if iran is allowed to resume oil exports legally, then there's lots of oil to be had from there + saudi of course and russia, about whom one hears surprisingly little

west africa also now contributes far more oil than many realise

usa will export to wherever as and when it so chooses, but more importantly, usa is now actually or reasonably close to being self-sufficient rather than a significant importer

Hays Hays Hays.....the MAY effect..........

electionista @electionista
UK - YouGov/Sun poll:

LAB 38%
CON 32%
UKIP 12%
LDEM 8%
GRN 5%

Cyners if you are right about extra oil supply how come its having no effect on US Light which is moving up by the day.

Hays Theresa May I meant, your new leader LOL LOL LOL LOL easy peasy.

try a weak $ for starters

Well yep,but any other thoughts.

Tell you what Ive been selling the few stocks I held, down to just 5 now.

Bloody Islamic extremists. Lost more money because of them than anything else on the market.

political unrest and instability will always impact the oil price, and usually gold as well, though i haven't watched that in ages

hope you're out of TED ..... grim picture there
TUNG isn't too pretty either
but BG still just about bucking the trend

exec - what is saudi's production?

And all that weaponry is just about to fall into the hands of the jihadist extremists - unless we do something!

If we don't give some kind of support now it is only going to make the future task of holding back these extremists much harder.

Saudi oil minister’s good times will last as lost output lifts prices
by Bloomberg June 13, 2014 2 min read original
By Grant Smith
Bloomberg News

Twelve of the world’s most powerful petroleum ministers gathered around a horseshoe of tables in Vienna this week to pass judgment on the oil market. One of them sounded happier than the rest.

“This is the best time for the market,” Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s minister, told journalists before the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on June 11.

A day later, U.S. and European crude prices, which have exceeded $100 a barrel for a record time, surged to multi-month highs, spurred by worsening conflict in Iraq, the group’s second-biggest producer. Libya, with 48 billion barrels of reserves, is pumping 10 percent of what it can because of unrest.

Saudi Arabia is showing satisfaction with oil prices at a time when OPEC’s collective influence seems diminished. Years ago, its utterances mattered to the market and the global economy. The group whose member countries supply 40 percent of the world’s oil barely moved prices as they met for just three hours and repeated what they said the last four times: Let’s keep pumping 30 million barrels a day.

“The good times are going to last for Saudi Arabia for as long as the outages continue,” said Jamie Webster, an analyst at IHS Energy in Washington. “Even if some of that lost production comes back, the Saudis are still in good shape. They could reduce production by a million barrels a day without panicking.”

Brent crude gained 0.4 percent to $109.95 a barrel on the day of the meeting, at the top of the end of what al-Naimi described as a good range. Prices rose to as high as $114.69 Thursday, the most since September, on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London as fighting in Iraq intensified. West Texas Intermediate climbed to the highest in eight months.

Lost potency

OPEC’s output decisions are unlikely to regain some potency until at least next year because disruption in Iraq and Libya mean that Saudi Arabia alone has the capacity to increase production. The kingdom is still sitting on about 2.5 million barrels a day of unused output capacity and committed to adjusting supply as demand dictates.

Demand for OPEC crude is declining as rising production from outside the group, mostly shale oil in North America, more than covers growth in global consumption. The world needed 30.3 million barrels a day from OPEC last year, falling to 29.2 million in 2018, before rising again the following decade, the group’s own estimates show.

Yet Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has raised crude output to an average of 9.7 million barrels a day this year, 4.8 percent above the same period in 2013, according to data the kingdom has supplied to OPEC. It may need to lift production to a record 11 million a day to satisfy demand in the second half, says Energy Aspects Ltd., a London-based consultant.

Sense of balance

Al-Naimi has been able to enjoy steady prices and rising production largely because of the misfortune of other OPEC members.

“Although there’s a sense of balance in the oil market, the convergence of OPEC output to this target has so far been largely due to unplanned outages, rather than a concerted effort by member countries to restrict output at those levels,” Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London, said by e-mail.

Iraq’s production contracted 6.4 percent since reaching a 35-year peak of 3.6 million barrels a day in February amid political disputes and pipeline bombings, according to the International Energy Agency. An al-Qaeda offshoot captured the nation’s second-biggest city, Mosul.

Supply disruptions

In Libya, output has fallen to about a 10th of capacity because of political protests at oil fields and terminals. Iran next month may face an end to relief from international sanctions, which have reduced oil exports, if it can’t reach a broader deal on its nuclear program.

These disruptions mean OPEC won’t face tricky discussions over changing its collective production target, or imposing individual quotas to avoid pumping too much oil, until at least next year, according to analysts from Energy Aspects, Petromatrix GmbH and VTB Capital.

“Things are very happy for those OPEC members who are able to produce more while prices are high and stable,” said Webster at IHS. “The only way things get bad is if a large chunk of production comes back while at the same time U.S. output continues to grow apace, requiring OPEC to reduce output.”

saudi is about 10m and may now be rather more, with both russia and usa in a similar league

while the loss of iraq crude - ignore what its quality may be - is of note, it is nowhere near catastrophic .... and that assumes that the figures exec produced are real

Tesco....

Motley Fool: Buy, Sell or Hold?

There was no bedroom tax under Thatcher. It is a Labour invention. Show me a link to Thatcher doing it!

Hays it was included with the Poll Tax you know the Community Charge.

Check it out. Thatchers Baby that got her the sack.

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Noooooooooooooooooo

Theresa May in the brown Stuff again.

90 PRISONERS ESCAPE FROM OPEN PRISON AND ON THE RUN THIS AFTERNOON.