overgrowth
- 12 May 2005 22:21
Mediwatch is a small
company destined to become a much bigger fish by the time this year is
out.
Mediwatch are already a market leader in urological medical diagnostics
equipement and are currently exporting their products throughout the UK,
Canada, Europe, India and Japan.
That doesn't leave much of the globe left for them to capture - until
you remember the good ol' US and China.
These are the two massive markets which are destined to be added to MDW's
export client portfolio by the end of 2005.
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The company is currently
heavily undervalued. This is probably because Mediwatch's speciality is
not a very glamourous business to be in as their equipment is used extensively
to diagnose prostate cancer in men and other nasty urological conditions
affecting both men and women. However, don't let that put you off investing
in these guys. This is big business and is growing at an exponential rate
as more and more people globally become health-aware as they get older.
Mediwatch normally
supply their products through to global markets via distribution agreements.
They already have the best of distribution partners in the well known
US medical distributor CR Bard who supply Canada and Europe and GE Medical
who supply Japan. The UK business is handled by Mediwatch's own dedicated
sales team.
US FDA approval was
gained for MDW's products at the start of last year, however a whole year
of US legal wrangling meant that they were unable to seek a suitable partner
for the crucial distribution agreement until the start of this year. This
distribution agreement is expected by the board to have a "significant
effect" on the share price so they are reluctant to give any clues
as to when it will be signed, sealed and delivered. The general consensus
is that this US distribution agreement will be announced in July/August.
In China and Hong Kong, MDW have done things the other way round. They
have set up distribution agreements with major Asian medical equipment
distributors and have stock already out there waiting to sell into the
markets - all they are waiting for is SDA approval (which is a "rubber
stamp") from the Chinese authorities - this can take anything up
to 12 months to come through and MDW applied during Autumn 2004 - so even
more good news coming soon this year.
Epidemiological data from British Association of Urology conference last year: On average 30-45% of all men between the age of 50 and 70 have at least one PSA test per year in the US / Italy / Australia.
If that's not enough
to convince you to invest a few hard earned coppers in MDW, they are also
developing a PSA stick test product (PSAWatch) which is revolutionary and causing
some excitement in medical circles. This product can also be adapted (at
very low cost) for a whole spectrum of medical disciplines from Cardiology
to Veterinary Practice! This product is likely to be released in the next
few weeks. Philip Stimpson the CEO has said that this product is going
to be their "gold mine" - I'm sure it will prove to be ours
too.
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ptholden
- 30 Jun 2005 07:15
- 425 of 1497
Great, no results!!
ptholden
- 30 Jun 2005 07:41
- 426 of 1497
Results out now, essentially a 1m loss and no confirmation of Medtronic deal or distribution rights in China or Hong Kong. Be surprsied if we don't see a further fall today. Clearly, the City knew what was coming yesterday, although you may argue that fall is already in the SP, but I doubt it.
pth
andysmith
- 30 Jun 2005 07:44
- 427 of 1497
The wait goes on, do we expect a drop as the speculators from 9p take their profits?? If so I'll wait to top-up and get a lot more for my money.
Nobodys having my shares, when any distribution deal is announced this will be an absolute money-maker. Prostate cancer is the biggest problem for blokes and there are a lot of us!!
petralva
- 30 Jun 2005 07:49
- 428 of 1497
if they carry on spending huge amounts on r&d we'll never see any profit at this rate!
ashwellt
- 30 Jun 2005 07:50
- 429 of 1497
Yesterdays fall had nothing to do with leaks. It was the usual trading pattern of buying in upto results and selling the day before in case results not as expected. It always happens in nearly every share.
Personally I think results are reasonably good. Given the business they are in R&D is always going to impact results and you have to look at the results after stripping these out which make good reading.
We do however now need to conclude a distribution deal soon in order to start generating profits and cashflow otherwise the remaining cash will not last long,
I never expected news of a deal to be in the results though, that was always going to be a seperate RNS given the implications that it transforms the company.
Think the price will now fall further until news of the deal is announced, but hold tight because once it is the single figure share price days will be a thing of the past.
More confident than ever that the next 6 months will make me seriously better off.
mg
- 30 Jun 2005 07:51
- 430 of 1497
If we get a bail out I, for one, will be looking to add to my shed load. I think I'll need another shed at this rate.
andysmith
- 30 Jun 2005 08:03
- 431 of 1497
Same thoughts here folks, if the impatient bale, I have my vacuum and mop ready!! R&D of 500k will be nothing when this takes off.
chocolat
- 30 Jun 2005 08:03
- 432 of 1497
Where will you park your bike, mg?
smudge1004
- 30 Jun 2005 08:21
- 433 of 1497
imo these are excellent results for the year with the last 6 months generating 1 million in revs, andy your right mate 500k r&d will be nothing, notice the 250k overdraft is payable from feb, when revs from psa and the us will be rolling in. taken from the results "Following the successful clinical evaluation of the system, we have commenced
application for regulatory approvals in Europe and the USA and we anticipate
releasing this ground breaking system to the market later this year.
The first revenues are expected from this point - of - care diagnostic system in
the 2005 - 06 financial year"
i know we all want a every scrap of good news in the results, however for a stronger sp i favour continual good news over the next 6 months, I feel the mdw BB will be LITTERED with positive rns's
ptholden
- 30 Jun 2005 08:40
- 434 of 1497
L2 quite active, now 2v2.
I think the MMs originally positioned themselves for a sell off this morning (like me!), so far it hasn't happened.
I think the major positive from the results is the increase in turnover during H2 to 1M. Assuming R&D costs will fall off for the next financial year, a likewise increase in turnover for the forthcoming year will see MDW turn to profitability, even without a Medtronic deal. My other concern is the cash flow. Although they have just enough with the overdraft facility to see them through the next five - six months, they really do need to continue to generate revenues, otherwise a bigger overdraft or shares issue will be required to keep going. However, judging by the date of repayments for the overdraft facility they appear confident that this will happen. Fingers crossed.
Good luck to all.
pth
smudge1004
- 30 Jun 2005 08:41
- 435 of 1497
ptholden 1, if thats the case im outta here
mg
- 30 Jun 2005 08:42
- 436 of 1497
choccie - I could give you rude answer to that one - but I'm a well-behaved, suave and sophisticated chap - so I won't !!
mg XIV
ptholden
- 30 Jun 2005 08:49
- 437 of 1497
Smudge,
Blimey, someone rads the rubbish I write! Have edited.
MG
'Well behaved, sauve and sophisticated' But not on the golf course!!!!
Only kidding.
pth
chocolat
- 30 Jun 2005 08:51
- 438 of 1497
Best get the WD40 onto it, ten four ;)
iamole
- 30 Jun 2005 13:01
- 440 of 1497
Terrible results, - "record turnover" (1.7m) with losses over 1m, so what? I do watch these and think they may be a good one day, but on these results and their cashburn, illiquidity - time is running out before another cash call, and it always takes much longer than anticipated for revenues to roll in, I'll wait as I believe these will fall back
ptholden
- 30 Jun 2005 13:09
- 441 of 1497
og
The medium / longer term looks quite rosy, as long as they do not run into cash flow problems. I have been of the opinion that they may well raise additional cash through a shares issue (discussed with mg during the golf challenge) and these figures do nothing to change my mind regarding that aspect of the business.
I do wonder what EVO were up to last and this week, they clearly were accumulating stock, wonder if they are surprised at the way this has pulled back?
I think that this has further to fall at the moment. I have closed two of my recently opened positions at a loss, but will now let the others run. Hopefully to turn into profits and recover the losses. I am going to keep a close eye on proceedings and may top up again when we see where it is going. In the event that the Medtronic deal is announced in the meantime, I am still in position to benefit.
pth
iamole
- 30 Jun 2005 15:41
- 443 of 1497
I wouldn't hold my breath, this deal has been "imminent" for 18mths now, and Medtronic know they are in a very strong negotiating position with cashflow a problem at MDW, I've seen it before, the co. with the great new product has to sell out cheap and the large co makes the money or takes over the struggling minnow. Avoid for the time being, wait for the rights issue announcement at 5p