Amities . l have been discreetly buying this stock since it was 39p . And the more i learn the bolder are the positions i take . .....Floated in Dec 2004 it was oversubscribed and before costs the required $15 million was raised. At the helm is ex BP head of Global exploration and Resavoir management . Furthermore a success story at Global Expo . Now Nick Johnstone wants to set up on his own . And after speaking to him l am not at all surprised . He is like a "Who s Who " of the hydrocarbon world ...He has ALL the prerequisites for success so why work for some other lackey ! .. namely connections from his ertwhistle employers . He has assembled a first class management team from ex colleauges at BP ; and is his business model is simple . AFR farms in on "Big Oils " inception upstream ; and with its scale of economy it works closely with "Big oils" fields on the look out for excellent workovers oppertunities .... Already lt has via a complicated j/v a percentage of the Sao Tome and Principe acreage -Located between the oil rich waters of Nigeria and those of Sao Tome and operated by Texaco / Chevron and Esso; and believed by many to be the new North sea . . 3D Seismic testing and magnetic graphic imagery and satellite imaging has located a labyrinth of channels leading to a main resavoir which is believed to14-15 mmbbls of oil and which would leave AFR with its share of 120/140 million barrels for NO cash outlay .To ensure early cash generation Afren has entered into a production sharing agreement in the developed Ogedeh field { adjacent to the BP operated Olowi marin field which is believed to yield 180 mmbbloe. Furthernore AFR has agreed to drill the lbekelia project for Ascent resources which is expected to produce 2,500 b/pdoe to satisfy AFR percentile share ,ln addition it is a believed resouce of several years . .. , .Not a bad start for a company with little more than six months in the making . ....and well worthy of investigation !! .....@+ J

How low is this one going?

The graph looks like the "evil eye" in the 3rd episode of "The lord of the rings"....I can't see "Sam and Frodo" yet to save the day....crazy drop...there has got to be a turnaround soon !.

In 3-6 mnths time these could be 100p or 20p.

Do you want to take the chance cause I know I don't.

And there lies the problem. No confidence = low volumes = share price falls = more hedge fund redemptions = no confidence etc etc.

At the moment it looks bleak.....I won't be putting many trades through until next year by the look of things !.

Does anybody have any idea what is their cost of production?

22.5p...is it going to go any lower?

Been watching it closely.

Being slaughtered.

now down 17%
perhaps the future is red

An excellent update and good enough for me to take a stake.

Operational Update

London, 16th December, 2008 - Afren plc ('Afren' or the 'Company') today provides an update on operational activities across its portfolio.

Nigeria

Okoro Setu Project

Production operations on the Okoro Setu Project are continuing to run efficiently. The wells are producing in line with expectations and fine tuning of the production process is allowing Afren, the technical partner, and Amni, the licence operator, to achieve optimal delivery of the well potential and effectively manage the reservoir.

Production from the field is currently averaging 18,500 bopd from 6 of the 7 wells currently available on the field. The 7th well is scheduled to come on line by the end of the year, pending the arrival of outstanding wellhead equipment. Production is expected to increase to 21,000 bopd once all of the wells are producing.

To date, Afren and its partner Amni have produced over 900,000 bbls from the field with no water and successfully lifted five cargoes for export. A further two liftings are scheduled before the end of the year. The Company has realised an average price of $53.9 per barrel for the oil sold to date.

Afren and Amni's near term focus will be to continue to maximise production from the field whilst reducing field operating costs to reflect the current oil price environment.

Ebok Appraisal & Development

The Ebok-4 well was spudded on 24th November using the Trident IV jack-up rig. The well is currently coring the reservoir section. Initial results are encouraging but require validation from the planned wireline logging programme which is scheduled to commence when the well reaches the Target Depth of 3,800 feet. The well will then be tested to establish well deliverability, crude oil properties and reservoir performance parameters, following which the partners will determine the timing and structure of the field's development.

Ghana

The Cuda-1 well, which was spudded on 16th November, continues to operate in tight hole status.

Ce d'Ivoire

Gross production from the CI-11 fields and the Gas Plant have improved by an average of circa 700 boepd since Afren took over as Operator of the assets. This reflects ongoing efforts to maximise delivery from the current wells and producing intervals.

A significant subsurface, production optimisation and maintenance programme is currently underway on the CI-11 fields with the objective of safely delivering incremental production from the existing well base via wireline workovers while establishing the potential for a successful infill drilling programme in the second half of 2009.

Preparatory work is also underway on CI-01 to evaluate options to develop the gas and oil reserves already defined on the block.

Financial Overview

Afren is in a strong financial position, with an anticipated cash balance of over US$50 million at year end and anticipated annualised cash flow of over $200 million in 2009, based on an average oil price of $50 per barrel, compared with a planned capital expenditure programme of approximately $60 million. The Company is also actively seeking to reduce operating costs, particularly through ongoing negotiations with the contractors and sub-contractors working on the Okoro Setu project.

Furthermore, additional financial flexibility is provided through the strategic alliance with Sojitz Corporation ('Sojitz'), the major Japanese diversified industrials and investment conglomerate, as announced in October 2008. The Strategic Alliance will run for an initial period of (i) 3 years from the signing date or (ii) the date upon which Sojitz has invested a total of $500 million in the Joint Acquisitions.

Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren, commented:

'I am delighted with the continued operational success demonstrated on the Okoro Setu project, with current production of circa 18,500 bopd, in addition to circa 5,200 working interest boepd from Ce d'Ivoire.

'The operational outlook for Afren is promising, with the Company set to be producing over 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day at the start of 2009, which will generate significant cash flow for the business, even in the current price environment. We are continuing to drive down field operating costs through on-going re-negotiations with our contractors, ensuring sustained positive netbacks and profitability to the Company.

'Afren's financial position is strong and I believe the Sojitz alliance will help facilitate exciting acquisition opportunities in the year ahead. Our exploration and development programmes for 2009 are fully funded, and are set to generate significant newsflow for the business over the upcoming year.'

cyril

I'm sure this company, unlike others, has a future.
I'm going to wait though until we see some real positive sp movement before plunging in.

I feel that we are going to see a rally in general up to Xmas and then, like last year a collapse in Jan/Feb. If that happens then AFR has further to fall before recovery.

Good luck though.

DD thanks, i do like the CEO's report.
26000bopd early 2009 for a M/Cap of 119m
company makes this imo quite a safe investment? I feel a couple of days for the market to digest and it could see a marked omprovement in the SP?
cyril

Cuda well P&A'D
cyril

Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren, commented:

"Whilst we are disappointed at the outcome of this operation, we remain highly optimistic
as to the exploration potential of the Keta
block, where several attractive prospects, in addition to Cuda have been identified.

"The Cuda-1 well was targeting a previously unpenetrated section in a sparsely drilled
basin, and has provided Afren and its partners
with valuable information that will assist future exploration efforts in this world class
block which has billion barrel potential"

cyril

20p at all time low.

Like many oilies seems to be undervalued, all depends on their cost of production.

Talking of takeovers...this one might go like ORE....with a bidder coming in out of the blue : BG. or Shell or even maybe TLW....but it looks ripe to me !, two page write up in Shares magazine this week...worth the read guys !..

all time low?
i hope TFC got out in time and didnt hold on.according to the header he had been buying at 39p and adding. it was a good tip in a rising bull market. he seems to have always been a buyer but never a seller or profit/loss taker. i could be wrong on this point,i am often wrong but im not going to read thro over 400 posts, no doubt if i am someone will be kind enough to tell me when he sold out or stopped adding. he seems also to have disappeared from our board, i hope he is ok and didnt make the same mistake as MDX holders.at least afr still has chances of recovery as long as it has life in it. might be a loong wait.
all just my opinion dyor etc.
regards
jkd

Without being sure of anything...this I can imagine being bought out by one of the majors because it would fit neatly into a porfolio like BG.'s.....already operating in Nigeria or even Shell.....and one or two others....depends on oil and gas prices, but price hikes have just got to come soon !.

Found this,

ok, brief summary of the shares mag article. Its a two page interview with Osman Shahenshah giving an overview of the current situation.

Firstly it takes note of the drop to the 20p level in comparison with the fall in Brent Crude.
Osman states that he's never been more optimistic about the prospects and strategy.
Looking at 12 or 13 potential acquisitions (doesn't say how many they'd like to come off) prior to main market listing.
Mentions alliance with Sojitz.
Mentions Lukman leaving, saying it might actually give the company more breathing space.
Cuda dissappointment, but still see potential since the reservoir was not penetrated, re-iterates 'billion-barrel' potential.
Mentions Ebok and near term results with a view to producing 2h 2010.
No cash needs in 2009, anticipated cash flow of $200m in 2009 at $50 per barrell.
Magazine comments that cashflow of $200m in a company valued at 100m seems undervalued.
House broker Jefferies notes that share price implies 50% discount to core producing assets and takes no account of exploration potential, development assets etc.

the end.

Don't be frightened out of this company,annoucement expected early "FEB",
thats according to a reliable poster who has phoned the Co.
cyril

Well I've done my research on this and followed it for two years.

Last week I made my first purchase into the company and am very happy to be a holder.

I shall over the next couple of months be looking for the opportunities to trade in and out always increasing my exposure whilst lowering my risk.

I never thought that this would fall below the 1 mark, so now I have taken advantage of that.

IMHO this is a no brainer.