rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

"Regulators are expected to finally deliver the results of the stress tests for the nation's 19 largest banks on Thursday."
Assuming the results are good, I assume the U.K. banks will surge on the back of that? Warren Buffet seems particularly upbeat about the U.S. banks on CNN.

I thought the major indices would've dropped back by now (sell in May, frothy prices, general poor economic climate etc.). Maybe the stress tests will be a "sell on the news" type event. They seem to be ignoring the bad news these days, so perhaps they'll run from the good instead (assuming it is) ..... :-)


Strawbs.

Strawbs still shorting by the sound of it, try going with the flow instead.

No. Long since March actually, based on the theory that in good years (bull market) people sell out in April/May to take advantage of CGT etc. so prices tend to fall, I figured people would be covering shorts for the same reason and hence prices might rise. Not my idea though. Saw an article about a "dash for trash" which suggested the possibility, so when my list of "trash" seemed to be rising I took the plunge. I've been selling out of all my holdings since late April though and now only have one left. Possibly too soon in a few cases but took some good profits anyway. Depending on where the market finally stops out, I'll be going short or long on the retracement. Still undecided but largely sceptical of the current rally.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Strawbs so you will continue to short.

I don't have any method of shorting as such (no CFD or SB account), but may put some money into a short ETF if I think we could head back to the previous lows. Depends on how the charts shape up really. The ETF's don't seem very efficient in terms of shorting, so may just wait to go long again if the lows are taken out. Depends how confident I feel about leaving money invested (in a short ETF).

Strawbs.

i've tightened all my stops up on my longs today. will scale out on way down, if it goes down that is. it could do anything. either way i dont mind now.
regards
jkd

The question is : is there another disaster coming ? banks updating....might provide a little more optimism....I think that a gentle footsie rise is coming with pullbacks along the way.....nothing like last year's drops !....I mean we are in the 4000's, that is a long way down....we shall see !.

Unless there is a whole raft of bad news to come from a major sector, my guess is that the trend is now up & the traditional May downturn is not going to happen this year. Quite a while ago I read an article which suggested that 2009 would be a year where markets bumped along the bottom & with the exception of certain recovery sectors, I would suspect that is going to be correct. Unemployment is going to be the major concern, imo, & how that is going to affect recovery.

while the trend is undoubtedly upwards, do bear in mind that there can and will still be some truly horrid days or even weeks without that trend being broken

good day to you rf
my own view is that this is still a bear market rally.you could well be right and in trying to see a bigger picture i dont see any reason why we cant have a say 6/9 month bull in the mean time and within the bear.that might run along the lines of your above suggestion. maybe we will both be right? only time will tell. in the mean time i am being very cautious, although it hasnt stopped me going long on occasions.as always i reserve the right to change my views and opinions on this.lol
regards and good luck
jkd

FTSE through 200dma and at 75 daily RSI given a boost by oilies looks about the most overbought I can remember seeing them though that doesn't mean they can't go higher!I remember getting stopped out on a cable trade at 2.09 and the Dow in the late 13,000's

Looking at the charts I think perhaps the bears are sharpening their claws again.

Will the stress test results prove a tipping point?

Strawbs.

nothing either goes up in a straight line nor down .... and to expand a little, both FTSE and (especially) Dow can fall quite substantially without breaking the current up-trend

So a drop in a bull up-trend in a bear market !.

You could have : a little rise in a drop down day in a current up-trend in a bear market !....(apologies if it's starting to sound like comedy).

I think the bulls will sensibly be testing the bears resolve. Was yesterdays drop down to "pre stress test" worries, or something more determined? The next few days/week of trading will probably answer the question.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

The very fact that you have put your toe in the water Strawbs, implies that the future is looking brighter now! I remember the days when you were firmly hunkered down.

Perhaps Harry. But depending on how the charts look, I'm planning to go back to my bunker for the summer. :-)

Strawbs.

LoL rf
i think you've cracked it.
regards
jkd