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Couple of broker comments on AST last week.

http://www.onenewspage.co.uk/news/Markets/20100920/15193820/Broker-Watch-featuring-Eckoh-Ascent-Resources-Dominos-Pizza.htm

........Turning to *Ascent Resources * (LON:AST), Astaire said it had trimmed its production forecasts for the current financial year following recent drilling results at Peneszlek in Hungary and the companys increased interest at Petisovci in Slovenia. However, it said it was continuing to forecast a profit and was maintaining its 2011 EPS estimate of 0.9p. It added that Ascents balance sheet was now in excellent shape following the recent disposal of its Perazzoli stake and its Swiss subsidiary........



and

http://proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/fox-davies-capital/3481/matra-petroleumascent-resources-gulfsands-petroleum-and-nautical-petroleum-feature-in-fox-davies-capital-newsflash-3481.html

.......Ascent Resources plc (Buy, 20p) (AST.L, 4.1p, ▲ 10.0%) has acquired a 60% interest in the 1,990km2 Igal-II exploration permit in Central Hungary though its 60% equity interest in Hungarian company Pelsolaj kft. The exploration permit, to the south east of Lake Balaton, was acquired from Winstar Resources Limited in exchange for a 4% net profit interest derived from future production from the permit area. Initial exploration will concentrate on a 300km2 area known for pre-Pannonian sediments which are highly prospective for oil, and where a number of shallow leads, c.1,000m, have already been identified. Seismic acquisition is currently underway with the objective to determine the first drilling location. The other particip ants in the project will be GTO Limited who is 20% partners in Ascent's Dutch offshore project, Geomega kft and Swede Resources AB, each with a 10% interest and also participate in Ascent's Penzlek Gas Production Project in eastern Hungary. The Company also announced the appointment of finnCap Ltd as the Company's Nominated Adviser and Broker with immediate effect.

Comment: On the face of it a good project to be involved in, with oil potential. Seismic acquisition is on-going and is designed to identify the first drilling location which is expected to be between three old wells in which the prospective formations have been shown to be present. A number of discoveries in similar geological structures nearby produce good quality oil at rates typically in excess of 100 bopd per well, increasing the chance of success............

Results out along with updates. All looks very interesting.

Slovenia ready to drill, deciding which way to go (sole risk/farm out).

Anagni permit by year end and Swiss drilling hopefully as per previous, as in before year end.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201009300702115773T

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Nice to see a Director Buy.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201010010700106616T

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Stratic takeover should be completed by Nov 5th. This should mean that a decision can then be taken on the Slovenia drilling (as its ready to drill), the hold up is Stratic and what they want to do.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201010010700066561T

" ..........If the Arrangement is approved by the shareholders on November 2, 2010 at the meeting, Stratic intends to apply to the Court for a final order approving the Arrangement at a hearing scheduled for November 4, 2010. If the final order is granted and all other conditions precedent are satisfied or waived at such time, the Company expects that the Arrangement will be completed and become binding upon all shareholders on or about November 5, 2010.......... "

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Ascent_Resources_Highlights_Significant_Development_Potential_in_HungarySlovenia/7cd9b02be.aspx

Ascent Resources Highlights Significant Development Potential in Hungary/Slovenia

Monday, October 04, 2010

Envoi Limited, specialist A and D advisors to the international upstream oil and gas sector, has released information on a significant appraisal / development opportunity in the eastern Pannonian Basin (that straddles the Hungary-Slovenia border) involving the large previously discovered, but largely undeveloped Petisovsci-Lovaszi tight gas field. Only 8 Bcf has been produced to date of the substantial 300+ Bcf untapped commercial reserve potential now estimated by Ascent, is capable of being unlocked by modern technology. This project opportunity is probably unmatched within this part of Europe, states Envoi.

Ascent Resources plc, the London AIM listed company, has commissioned Envoi to assist in identifying potential partners to participate in the two licences that incorporate the Petisovsci-Lovaszi field complex.

Ascent has recently acquired some 200km of modern 3-D seismic data across the entire project area which is allowing the full and future potential of the field's reservoirs to be understood for the first time and the additional reserves potential expected in other undrilled leads within the Project area. The main Petisovsci-Lovaszi gas reservoir is the relatively tight Miocene turbidite sandstones encountered at depths between 2,000m and 3,000m and has a stacked play of over 400 metres.

Commenting on the opportunity, Jeremy Eng, Ascent Resources' CEO, said;
'Even though some intervals within the reservoir sand packages have flowed gas without stimulation, the application of advanced drilling and stimulation techniques can be expected to reliably achieve good commercial flow rates, that coupled with the availability of local pipeline infrastructure, easy access to markets and high gas prices, even the 'most likely' 40 Bcf recoverable reserves that just the first appraisal well being planned is expected to unlock would not only be commercial, but would have an estimated NPV10 of 90 million (U.S. $120 million).

Ascent first acquired an interest in the Petisovsci Permits in the Slovenian part of the project area in 2007 and now holds a 75% interest. The Slovenian partner, Geoenergo, is the concessionaire and holds the remaining 25% interest. In the Hungarian part of the project, Ascent's partner is MOL and each party holds a 50% interest. The combined project area in Hungary and Slovenia covers a total of approximately 200 km.

An incoming party is being offered an equity interest in the entire field area in both Hungary and Slovenia, for a negotiated contribution to the 6 well appraisal / development drilling programme currently being planned including stimulation and testing which is expected to start before the end of 2010.


http://envoi.co.uk/P187Ascent(SloveniaHungary)Intro.pdf

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http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/article/streamlined-ascent-resources-posts-maiden-interim-profit/1209.html

"October 05, 2010

Streamlined Ascent Resources Posts Maiden Interim Profit

Many investors find it hard to get excited about Ascent Resources, which for too many years has been perceived as a collector of little projects in different corners of Europe. That perception is changing, however, as Ascent has been quietly refining its portfolio to focus on fewer projects with greater clout. As a result, the excitement that has been missing may start to build in the year ahead as investors start to understand the hidden value in the slimmed down portfolio.

The portfolio reorganisation means Ascent now has three main operated assets: the Petişovci/Lovaszi project which straddles the Hungarian-Slovenian border, oil exploration and redevelopment in Italys Latina Valley, and the M10/11 appraisal project offshore The Netherlands. The Swiss assets have been sold to eCORP Europe International for 8 million, with Ascent retaining back-in rights, the small Gorbehaza-1 discovery in eastern Hungary has been sold to existing project partners while the Bajcsa joint venture in western Hungary has been dissolved with the company's 50 per cent interest reverting to MOL. Gone too are the Spanish assets (now in the hands of Leni Gas & Oil) and Ascents interest in Italian rig company Perazzoli Drilling.

The Petişovci/Lovaszi project is at the heart of the new-look company. Theres a redevelopment opportunity here in the tight Miocene gas sands as well as exploration upside in parallel structures and flank plays that have been identified on new seismic. Theres existing infrastructure so any finds could be brought onstream quickly to cash in on high regional gas prices. The first well on the Slovenian side, Pg-11, is now ready to drill and success here could unlock what the company calls a considerable work programme. The small cap is weighing options on how to progress, given its size compared to the potential scale of the development.

Ascent recently added to its portfolio in Hungary, securing a 60 per cent interest in the 1,990 sq km Igal-II exploration permit. The exploration permit, to the south east of Lake Balaton in Central Hungary, was acquired from Winstar Resources in exchange for a four per cent net profit interest derived from any future production. Seismic is already underway to define a first drilling location to target shallow oil prospects in pre-Pannonian sediments. A number of nearby discoveries in similar geological structures produce good quality oil at rates of more than 100 bpd per well. This should be a fairly low cost drill and would make a nice addition to the production profile.

Oil is also the target in Italys Latina Valley, where seismic has been acquired over the Ripi oilfield, a candidate for redevelopment. Nearby, a small 2D seismic shoot is planned to confirm the location of the planned Anagni-2 appraisal well, another step in the intriguing Anagni exploration project which has provided plenty of thrills, and spills, for investors in recent years. Ascent has a 50 per cent interest in Ripi and an 80 per cent interest in Anagni.

In the Netherlands, the company has a 54 per cent interest in the offshore M10/11 project. This is an appraisal of an existing gas discovery. The joint venture must take a decision whether to drill an appraisal well before the end of the year.

This is a much simpler and solid Ascent Resources, making it much easier for investors to identify what Ascent stands for, and where the break-out opportunities could come from. And its clear that Ascent sees its future in Hungary and Slovenia, where the reserves potential is large, gas prices are high and theres a political will to reduce dependence on Russian gas imports.

Ascents MD Jeremy Eng said he believed the repositioning of the company should enable it to advance rapidly up the value curve and gain true recognition of our portfolio's worth.

The comment came as the AIM company issued its interims for the first half of 2010, showing a maiden interim profit 448,321 on the back of the profitable sale of the Swiss assets and a contribution from the producing Penzlek gas field in eastern Hungary. Ascent has a 48.78 per cent interest in the field, which is producing more than 2.5 million cubic feet per day from the PEN-101 and PEN-105 wells, with output expected to increase following pipeline modifications. This is profitable production, albeit modest, and could just be a taste of what the much larger Petişovci/Lovaszi project could yield a few years hence."

Decent sized buys coming in today.

Checking ;

On Line Limits are :

BUY MAX = 75K @ 3.97p

SELL MAX = 250K @ 3.88p


So in AST terms, that looks quite strong. Going to take some more volume to clear the seller out but once done, whenever that is, a good chance for a penny or two climb.

L2 is 4 v 1 @ 3.75/4.5

Although sells are circa 4p (not the 3.75p advertised).

Been tipped it seems, and about time too given the potential. Hopefully now Slater is nearly sold out of all his stock it will allow the price to re-rate upwards in the coming 6 months.

Off you go AST, go into an ascent.

On Line.

L2 is 1 v 1

WINS bidding at 4.25p and CANA offering at 4.5p


On line limits are :


Max buy = 500K @ 4.32p (Slaters last stock on offer, a million or so ??)

Max sell = 150K @ 4.25p


So for a buyer you can still pick up a big lump of stock at under 4.35p if you want to.

If you take the forecasted EPS of 0.9p for 2011, it would mean that AST will generate profits of circa >4.5m this financial year.

Not bad going is it, probably what is tempting them to go "sole risk" on Slovenia however it would be better, far better, to farm Slovenia down and get drilling in late November perhaps.

Quite strange really to now think of AST as a "profitable company", but it is.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201010130700082856U

13 October 2010

Ascent Resources plc ('Ascent' or 'the Company')


Reports In-Place Gas Volume of 412 Bcf for Petişovci-Lovaszi Project


Highlights:

Independent corroboration of substantial gas in place resources in the project area - P50 estimate of 412 Bcf (11.7 Mm3; 68.7 MMboe)

Large scale gas development with good infrastructure, pipeline connectivity and a strong regional sale price - current price $9.00 per Mscf

Project development objective are the Miocene formations which contain multiple tight gas reservoirs at moderate depths

The Pg-11 evaluation well is ready to drill with commencement targeted in November 2010 - expected to be Ascent's first Slovenian production well



Ascent Resources plc, the AIM-traded oil and gas exploration and production company, has received an independent report corroborating the highly prospective nature of the Petişovci-Lovaszi proje............................

A goooooooood day :)

Looks like 1st Slovenian well will be drilled on a sole risk basis spudding in November.

Bring it on.

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/215525/ascentupdate13oct2010.pdf

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Take the 412 bcf figure, then discount it for AST's 50%, and discount it again for 50% recovery, and you end up with say 100 bcf net prospective resources in the ground.

$9/mcf has been stable price in Slovenia for a long time (years), there is a severe need for more gas there. Onshore development costs are very much cheaper than offshore, and there is existing infrastructure in the area.

I would say you can use a value in the ground of $3.5/mcf and then using this as a figure for any DCF model.

Therefore value to AST would be 350 million US$, or say 220 million

Shares in issue is circa = 500 million

The value therefore to AST if this is turned into 2P reserves = circa 44p per share


You can see why this project has such importance to AST and if they do start to turn this prospective resource into producing reserves then their share price will re-rate rather rapidly.

Spud in November means we should know by Christmas, and a large Christmas present might be waiting for long suffering AST holders.

Thanks for "smarty" for the summary below :



Near term projects -:

Petisovci/Lovaszi

412bcf P50/200 P90/836bcf opportunity. The ownership of the licence area is messy -:
Lovaszi Prospect - 50% with MOL
Petisovci shallows - 50%
Pet/Glob deeps - 26.5%
New 75bcf opp on recently shot 61.5km2 seismic - 75%

Currently own 75% of intial 4 well campaign on a sole risk basis and in negotiations with Enquest to obtain 75% of the Pet/Glob deeps. The challenge now is funding and at 3m euros a pop the cashflow risk is clear to see. My estimates are that they have 6m ish cash in bank after E-Corp cash and at this point a sole risk well is a major cost. AST will be trying to weigh up going alone v farming and the decision will be made on the latest data received. A successful sole risk well will mean a far better farm out deal and more control for AST but i would prefer a reasonable farm out deal pre Nov drill. We only had 15% of the Pet/Glob deeps and the opp to obtain 75% and farm is great deal for AST as even a 50% farm down with zero drill costs,free carry would leave us with 37.5% v 26.5% we currently own.


Switzerland

Hemrigen/Essertines and Linden - AST share 45%

Gross gas in place estimated @ 600bcf+ by TRACS International

We have negotiated a great farm out deal raising 8m euro which has enabled AST to progress other operations within the portfolio. A 2 drill campaign planned initially at ZERO cost to AST and if successful back in rights available. AST were hoping for drill to commence in Q4, this is dependant on receiving final permit.


Frosinone Permit - Anagni

Awaiting permitting and i suspect that drill will be in Q1 2011. The opportunity @ Anagni has been estimated @ anything from 5 - 100mb !. The failure of previous wells in the lower parts of the structure has meant that the likely finds are going to be smaller reservoir(s). The project at this juncture is a cheap one and this will be our last chance to prove up our Italian opportunity.


Holland - M10/M11 blocks in N Sea

Own 54% of this project and we will either farm down, sell or lose the licence area. I believe the key to success lies with the ability to farm it down and i know AST are working very hard on this.

All of the above projects are 'company makers' and i will let the old hands work out the possible NAV's and they will be well in excess of 2 !!! should we gain success at all.


Other projects

Strangolagalli - Ripi
More seismic planned soon


Pen - Hungary

Awaiting pipeline modifications which should lead to gas increase, i am hoping for a 30%+ hike.AST will decide whether they take on more wells @ Pen, i don't think they will although the Igall project looks like another Pen so who really knows.

Igall Project

Seismic being shot and a Pen like opp in Pannonian bu oil instead of gas



There are other opps but i see them all as back burner projects and we have enough to focus on in the short term. The upside is clear to see, the challenge will be to get success before any more fund raising at higher sp.

Finally a new broker note to be issued and dependant on Enquest outcome, the new target sp will be some way north of current estimates of 20p. A rerating is on its way and a little success to validate the value is all we need.

On Line Limits today :

MAX BUY = 200K @ 5.75p

MAX SELL = 500K @ 5.65p


Someone wants to buy more AST it seems, demand looks good.

Certainly a good day for AST, looks much more stable and stronger now and with so much ahead in the coming months.

A return to 8p levels cannot be ruled out shorter term.

Technical buy at the moment as well, for those who like barcharts and trends....


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/futures/AST.LS


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