rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Unless there is a whole raft of bad news to come from a major sector, my guess is that the trend is now up & the traditional May downturn is not going to happen this year. Quite a while ago I read an article which suggested that 2009 would be a year where markets bumped along the bottom & with the exception of certain recovery sectors, I would suspect that is going to be correct. Unemployment is going to be the major concern, imo, & how that is going to affect recovery.

while the trend is undoubtedly upwards, do bear in mind that there can and will still be some truly horrid days or even weeks without that trend being broken

good day to you rf
my own view is that this is still a bear market rally.you could well be right and in trying to see a bigger picture i dont see any reason why we cant have a say 6/9 month bull in the mean time and within the bear.that might run along the lines of your above suggestion. maybe we will both be right? only time will tell. in the mean time i am being very cautious, although it hasnt stopped me going long on occasions.as always i reserve the right to change my views and opinions on this.lol
regards and good luck
jkd

FTSE through 200dma and at 75 daily RSI given a boost by oilies looks about the most overbought I can remember seeing them though that doesn't mean they can't go higher!I remember getting stopped out on a cable trade at 2.09 and the Dow in the late 13,000's

Looking at the charts I think perhaps the bears are sharpening their claws again.

Will the stress test results prove a tipping point?

Strawbs.

nothing either goes up in a straight line nor down .... and to expand a little, both FTSE and (especially) Dow can fall quite substantially without breaking the current up-trend

So a drop in a bull up-trend in a bear market !.

You could have : a little rise in a drop down day in a current up-trend in a bear market !....(apologies if it's starting to sound like comedy).

I think the bulls will sensibly be testing the bears resolve. Was yesterdays drop down to "pre stress test" worries, or something more determined? The next few days/week of trading will probably answer the question.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

The very fact that you have put your toe in the water Strawbs, implies that the future is looking brighter now! I remember the days when you were firmly hunkered down.

Perhaps Harry. But depending on how the charts look, I'm planning to go back to my bunker for the summer. :-)

Strawbs.

LoL rf
i think you've cracked it.
regards
jkd

Thanks jkd, the question is : when do we return to the "all bear conditions" ?, perhaps not as long as the rising crude trend is on..., might not come back at all...I hope that it will not come suddenly when I'm not watching !.

1:30pm GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change.

Things might be a bit clearer once we get those numbers out of the way.

Judging by the bounce and figures over the last few days, the markets probably pricing in a relatively good number. I suppose the risk therefore is weighted on the downside should the numbers disappoint. I haven't a clue what a disappointing number would be though. They seem to rally on anything these days, good, bad or even shocking....

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Consensus seems that there's a lot riding on this one. Not sure if it's helium or hydrogen driving the rally, one's inert the other goes bang!

Don't viruses attack bacteria? They must have been reformed.

Is a Rickettsia a bacteria or a virus?

*Payrolls (April) down 539K; Jobless Rate up to 8.9%

Better then expected but not much change in the footsie, probably waiting for the Dow to open or already factored in.

http://www.merck.com/mmhe/sec17/ch195/ch195a.html
For Fred

DOW close to the 200 DMA. Will be interesting to see if it breaches this level.
The may prophesy of poor market performance has still not matierialised & now a risk of being left behind, but an atificially high oil price is still a worry, imo. High reserves & price only supported by speculators.