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Senators threaten China with tariffs
AFX


WASHINGTON (AFX) - Two U.S. senators urged Beijing Thursday to let China's yuan currency appreciate further, or face the threat of punitive tariffs on Chinese goods.

Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said they were encouraged by China's decision last week to let the currency appreciate by slightly more than 2% against the U.S. dollar, but expressed concern over a subsequent statement by China's central bank, which warned that there would be no further changes in the currency's valuation.

For more than a decade, China had maintained the yuan pegged at an exchange rate of 8.11 to the dollar. U.S. manufacturers and lawmakers have complained that the rate undervalues the Chinese currency, putting U.S. exporters at a disadvantage. China last week altered its foreign-exchange regime, allowing the currency to appreciate around 2% to 8.28 to the dollar.

Schumer said he and Graham remained optimistic China would let the market play a role in dictating the value of the yuan.

If China doesn't let the currency appreciate further, the senators said they would press ahead with legislation to impose 27.5% tariffs on Chinese goods.

'While the Chinese Central Bank has said that they will not do another fixed valuation in the near future, we trust that the Chinese will allow market forces to work.?But we want to be very clear - our bill is still scheduled to be voted on before the end of the Senate session in October.? If it seems like the Chinese are moving forward - great; if not, we are still ready to vote on our bill,' Schumer said.

The pair shelved the legislation in June after receiving assurances from Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that China was prepared to take action on its currency.



This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

chocolat,

Thank you for the post, seems US policy remains as consistent as ever, apply punitive import tariffs whilst maintaining MFN status (or Normal Trading Status for some stupid reason?*?)

Had a play with cable again, and made a mess, still getting supports that don't and resistance that isn't...oops, blew a cable short for - 10.
So took another, still running from 60 we shall see.

Good news is I've been told if I bust another trend-line this week I am in with a chance of the vacancy as King Canute's chief technical adviser....

Home from work too late for market close, NOT a good day!!!
But a little cheer was to be found from my overnight cable short, pure good fortune rather than stunningly perceptive strategy fluked an exit at 1 point above day low, so closed for +40, nice end to the week...:-)

Stormie: A magic touch, I fancy.

Well done.

MM,

Thank you, it is always nice to see a worked idea come to fruition, but given the too close margin I feel I probably have to thank a last vestige of fairy dust courtesy of Hilary for my escape...:-)

Link to Article

Don't trade FX, but was scouting round the Net tonight
for Macro stuff and stumbled across this.
Don't know if he's right, but it may be of interest to you.
Apologies if this is old news, I haven't read a lot of this
thread for the past couple of weeks.

Extract:

STERLING could be on the brink of a dramatic slide, threatening the economy's stability
if it falls too far too fast, a leading economist has warned.



BRACED FOR CRASH: A slide in the value of sterling could threaten the economy's stability

'Rate cuts on the way'
Paul Dales at consultancy Capital Economics says slower economic growth and falling interest rates
will push the pound 10% lower by the end of next year, but a drop of up to 40% cannot be ruled out.

Hil:

Are you on hols?

FX Fairy.

Changed tack for tonight, just for a change have a cable long @ 49, let's see what the other side of the street looks like..:-)

Not yet, MM, and well done to Stormy.

Thank you hilary..:-)

Overly conservative limit on my unattended overnight long took me out much too early, hindsight is a wonderful thing, nonetheless a useful +50 for the pot!

Hey that's great stuff Stormie

.

Stormie: Didn't you do well! Nice when a plan comes together.

Evening, Choccie :)

Thank you folks, having had many false dawns (and plain old screw-ups..:-( ) it is nice to get a couple actually run to plan...:-)

hilary,

It is most kind of you to give us the benefit of your input once again, I am quite prepared to admit I need all the help I can get..:-)

'ello MM ;)

Oh well - I'm back into shorts again from 17710. I just feel the 17700s are going to be a toughie to crack, having given strong support last year.

Please! Don't confuse me any more than I already am...:-)

Forex - Dollar falls as economic uncertainty, oil price weigh - UPDATE 4
AFX


CHICAGO (AFX) -- The U.S. dollar fell Monday as traders questioned whether strong domestic economic data would be enough to fuel a flagging greenback rally amid signs of revitalization outside the United States.

'Uncertainty over the state of the U.S. economy continues to weigh on the dollar,' said Nas Nijjar, senior foreign-exchange dealer in New York with London-based CMC Group.

'Consensus, however, seems to be that there's a correction underway and this could continue for some time as traders lock in the profits that have been picked up in recent months. The high price of oil and wide [U.S.] trade deficit continue to cause a degree of concern and these two factors could well keep a lid on any further dollar gains.'

In late U.S. trading, the dollar declined 0.5% against the euro compared to where it stood late Friday, with Europe's shared currency quoted at $1.2187.

The dollar fell 0.6% against the British pound, with one pound worth $1.7685. The greenback was down 0.8% to 1.2781 Swiss francs.

Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.2% at 112.21 yen.

The dollar had scaled multi-month highs last month as the U.S. economy has been outshining the other major industrialized nations. European economic data, while still far from spectacular, may be showing a bottom, analysts say.

The dollar had trouble gaining traction on upbeat reports issued last week, leading analysts to suggest that the yield advantage afforded the dollar because of higher U.S. interest rates may not matter as much to currency investors.

That theme carried over to Monday. The dollar remained lower across the board even as trade group Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 56.6% in July from 53.8% in June, a 26th month of expansion and the best reading of 2005.

The euro-area Purchasing Managers' Index, released Monday, showed that manufacturing activity had expanded in July for the first time since March 2005.

The headline measure rose to 50.8 in July from 49.9 in June.

'At face value, this stronger-than-expected report further reduces the likelihood of an interest-rate cut from the European Central Bank in the second half of the year,' said Guillaume Menuet, senior economist with Moody's Investors Service, in London.

The ECB's target stands at 2% compared to the Fed's 3.25%, widely expected to be lifted to 3.5% next week.

'Coming hard on the heels of a two-point rise in the European Commission measure of industry confidence, this report is another sign of a probable bottoming out of confidence in the second quarter of 2005,' said Menuet.

The dollar's lackluster performance has put added emphasis on Friday's U.S. jobs report for July, which is expected to show another month of steady employment growth.

The dollar also felt the sting of high oil prices rekindled with the death, early Monday, of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd. Saudi television reported that Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, the Saudi crown prince and Fahd's half-brother, will succeed him, as expected.

The uncertainty that can surround any leadership change proved enough to send crude futures above $62 a barrel, despite assurances from the Saudis of no changes in oil policy. Abdullah has effectively been in charge since King Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995.

Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter and the dollar is negatively impacted by the high cost of imported oil in the United States. Expensive oil can expand the current account deficit.

That deficit, which factors in both trade and investment flows, was at the center of a three-year U.S. dollar decline that had paused so far in 2005.

The International Monetary Fund said late Friday that the U.S. dollar is still too overvalued to boost exports and curb the U.S. financing imbalance.

The dollar's declines were narrower against the yen as the Japanese currency also typically feels some pressure from expensive oil. Japan is reliant on imports for all of its crude and its exporters are sensitive to significant cuts in global spending that can be a casualty of high energy bills.

The most recent Chicago Mercantile Exchange-issued International Monetary Market (IMM) data showed that on net, currency speculators cut their long, or generally bullish, dollar holdings by $2.5 billion to $9.5 billion. This is the lightest long dollar holdings since May 10.

Dollar holdings were reduced against the euro, yen and British pound, but increased against the Canadian dollar.

Meanwhile, Asian currency plays continue to factor into broader foreign-exchange dealings, particularly in the wake of the Chinese policy move. Deutsche Bank pointed to rumors from late last week of about $500 billion being shifted into both the euro and the yen to optimize Asian reserve portfolios.

The dollar slipped to 8.1046 yuan compared with a level of 8.11 yuan when the Chinese central bank revalued the currency earlier this month.



This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

Forex - Dollar in broad decline, led by tumble against yen - UPDATE 3
AFX


CHICAGO (AFX) -- The dollar again fell broadly Tuesday, its steepest loss coming against the yen after upbeat comments from a Japanese central bank official restored hope the world's second largest economy will break out of its deflationary doldrums.

A handful of positive U.S. economic reports since last week have not been enough to shake the greenback from a downward correction launched in the wake of China's currency revaluation late last month.

'The data suggest that ... enough job and income creation is occurring to keep the economy growing at an above-trend pace and this could keep upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields this week,' said Mike Carey, New York-based analyst with French investment bank Calyon.

'The dollar, however, continues to show little reaction to positive data releases and with markets already pricing in 4% fed funds by year end, the dollar may find it difficult to make further gains over the short term.'

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Tuesday the consumer price index may turn positive by the end of 2005 or early 2006.

His projection allowed Tokyo stocks to hit a 13-month intraday high, also boosting demand for yen.

The dollar was changing hands at 111.45 yen in late U.S. trading, down 0.8% from where it stood late Monday.

The greenback was also weaker against its European counterparts as a U.S. report's inflation component proved softer than expected, perhaps cutting the odds of aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes in coming months. Higher rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to foreign investors.

The dollar slipped 0.2% against Europe's shared currency. The euro was changing hands at $1.2196, held below tough chart congestion around $1.22 but also well supported above $1.20, traders said.

The dollar eased 0.2% against its British equivalent; one pound was fetching $1.7705.

Further currency gains will have to be justified by extraordinary U.S. data and indications the Fed won't stop its tightening cycle in 2006. Calyon analysts see further Fed moves in the pipeline.

Dollar trading showed little reaction to U.S. data on incomes and spending, but the report's core measure of personal consumption expenditures, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, drew some attention to its unchanged reading in June from May.

Economists thought the measure, a known favorite of the Federal Reserve, would creep higher.

'Although the eurozone economy continues to underperform the U.S., the bearish view on the eurozone means that it has been easier to deliver positive surprises. This is giving markets further reason not to expect any monetary easing from the European Central Bank, also helping to underpin the euro,' the Calyon analysts said in a note.

June euro-zone unemployment held flat at 8.7%, 'which is in keeping with recent downward trends in unemployment,' said Charmaine Buskas, analyst with Economy.com.

The euro's gains come on the back of news that Russia will increase its euro weighting in its currency basket which is used to value the ruble. The weight will now be 35% as compared to 30%, according to the central bank of Russia in a statement issued Monday.

The yen may also have trouble if oil continues to factor into investing decisions.

'Despite this official optimism [from the Bank of Japan], higher oil prices could limit the expansion in Japan and keep a lid on further yen gains,' said Buskas.

September crude was little changed at $61.55 a barrel in afternoon dealings as analysts turned their attention to Wednesday's U.S petroleum supply data from the Energy Department. Crude scaled uncharted territory above $62 a barrel on Monday.

Japan, a significant importer of oil, is also seen vulnerable to any impact higher energy prices may have in cutting global spending.

The dollar is also pressured by rising energy prices, which could aggravate the U.S. trade deficit.

Analysts from the Royal Bank of Scotland also noted that markets are keeping a close eye on whether Japan's upper house passes postal privatization bill on Friday.

'A failure to pass this legislation would be yen bearish,' the bank said.

A Russian central bank decision Monday to raise the weighting of euros in its dual currency basket has helped push the euro higher, said analysts from RBC Capital Markets.

As for the U.K., weak July manufacturing PMI data, which fell to 49.2 from June's 49.6, pretty much guarantees a rate cut on Thursday from the Bank of England, analysts from Anglo Irish Bank said.

Most central-bank watchers expect the benchmark interest rate to be lowered by a quarter of a percentage point from the current 4.75%, though a few say the bank could hold pat.

The pound soared last year as sharply higher U.K. interest rates relative to its industrial nation brethren put sterling in hot demand.



This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

Still trading cable short :)