Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Doc,

You're discounting the shift of UKIPpers to Tory that will happen once (a) UKIP get smeared and exposed as a bunch of racists and bigots, and (b) Joe Public smells the coffee and realises that a UKIP vote is a wasted vote when it comes to an EU referendum because, even with 14% of the public vote nationally, they ain't got a hope of getting any seats in the next parliament.

So, when your Hazy friend says 'there's still a year to go', he's right on the money because there's a lot that can and almost certainly will happen in that time. Also, in Westminster circles, it's pretty much a given already that the Tories will get the most seats - it's just a matter of debate as to whether they'll get an overall majority.

Wot we need is Boris. That would make it really massive fun.

I think we would all go along with whatever he wanted, provided he told us about it whilst riding on his bike.

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL


Hilary obviously doesnt track Lord Ashcrofts marginal seats.

Amateur.

AND

UKIP will hold their support.

pity because labour would have a more convincing win come GE day.

Have to agee with Cynic over this A level/benefits thingy.

God knows whose thought that one up,.......................... totaly assholic idea.

I will be having a strong word with Racheal Reeves this weekend.

You're right, Fishfinger, I don't track Lord Ashcroft's marginal seats - I've got a life! Have you ever thought of getting out a bit more?

Btw, I noticed your reference to a DNA test of your pubes the other day. Gotta say that I was a bit surprised you don't go in for a bit of manscaping downstairs. Or has metrosexuality not reached 'olmfirth yet?

hilary - it's not nearly as straight-forward or clear-cut as you, sticky and hays like to make out

labour voters
many will have voted for ukip because labour has no interest at all in renegotiating anything with brussels

it is therefore questionable how many of them will return to the fold, given the clear unelectibility of EM in his own right, added to which, you get inane statements from EM about youth unemployemt benefit today, and pretty much a zero stance or pronouncement (i think) on immigration



tory voters
many are rightly cheesed off with the namby-pamby efforts or non-delivery of assorted measures and the general shambles in various quarters - e.g. passports

however, the tories are the only party to offer a referendum on europe, however much the usual suspects here like to rubbish that

whether or not the tories can deliver at all on the promised immigration control and/or their rights to benefits or similar is also very questionable

at the end of the day, there is a fair likelihood that many who voted ukip will return to the tories in GE, as the fear of allowing labour back into power will have registered firmly


ukip voters
it has to be a racing certainty that NF will be elected as an MP as he portrays himself excellently - rather as Boris does!

however, it is unclear how many votes others will garner and in what proportion to each party - that is to say, in the marginals, which is where it will matter most

does ukip have properly formulated and costed policies?
not obviously so

nevertheless, as a populist maverick alternative, the votes gathered by ukip pose a danger to both the other serious parties - sorry, but i think lib/dems will be almost obliterated

Very difficult gardening down there when you have a 12 inch tool Hilary.

I will mention it though to her indoors.

Very good idea.

Cynic you dont half come out with some carp.

Cyners,

It is actually very straightforward and there's no point in complicating things any further than needs be.

The problem the Tories have, however, is that Cameron comes across as a two-faced slimeball, and the public rightly feel disillusioned with mainstream politics as a result. He should have walked the last election and, when he didn't, he should have gone straight back to the public who, I'm sure, would have put him into office with an overall majority at the second attempt. There would then be none of this fannying around that we're seeing now.

Fishfinger,

How often do you use it as a rule?

I know youd love to get your hands around it.

don't like carp .... it's muddy and i don't like the texture either :-)

===========

hilary
so if DC is a slimeball etc etc and seen to be such, why would he be re-elected or the tories even be the holders of most seats?

LOL, shes talking wet. labour had a 12 point lead for the first 4 months.

If DC had called for another election, hed be in opposition now. .........where he should be AND will be this time next year.

well he didn't anyway, so pure hypothesis ...... and i don't think the tories would have got an overall majority at the time either, though it's all too long ago to remember (for me anyway!)

Cyners,

Because Milibland is an even bigger tosser.

cynic
I don't think it is cut and dried. But I also think that UKIP voters will switch to Conservatives. Apart from good reasons, it is what protest voters do.,They may well have polled good figures in the EU and council figures, but their predicted figures from all polls shows them stuck at much lower figures that won't them any MPs.

As far as Labour is concerned, they are reaping the results of the dead hand of the union block votes that gave them a leader that the party didn't want.

Unofficially, the Conservative hierarchy are much more confident of success than they appear to be. The Libs are having discussions with the Conservatives about a future coalition and seem keen on the idea. They are also talking to Labour as we'll, but it seems that the discussions are more difficult as they were last time when Brown would not bend at all to get a coalition agreement.

You are a very naughty boy!

Labour have already said they would govern with a minority government if need be.

And Hays Id pick the Unions anyday to back me than have a few Hedge Funds calling the shots.

Labour wouldn't stand a chance of governing with a minority government. Within a couple months they would get voted down on a variety of topics.

There has only been one minority government as a result of a GE and it only lasted a few months before a new election. There have been two examples due to by elections and defections and they lasted an even shorter time.