" alt="" /> " alt="" />

All still fine and dandy in Euroland - so no concerns there then.

Spain
- tapped its social security reserve fund
- for the second time..... just this month,
(the Labour Ministry said, to help with extra summer pension payments as unemployment and retirement costs ........deplete government funds).

The government turned to the fund for 3.5 billion euros ($4.6 billion).... on July 1
- then for .....a further 1 billion euros on Monday..

Spain was forced to tap the reserve for the first time last year to help pay pension costs, using some...... 7 billion euros.

The fund was down to just 59.3 billion euros, after the operation on Monday,

And....here's the punchline:
virtually all of the "welfare" cash, and at least 97% of the social security pension fund, ........is invested in
- Spanish government bonds.

So in my mind - it begs the question
- if virtually - all the welfare funds
- and all - the pension funds
- are in Spanish bonds
- what happens if....Spanish bonds got hit with...a Greek style 80% plus haircut

Unpleasant....would be...a gross understaement !!!

S.

Stocks to Gold Ratio...



S.

Cheers Sahara
- have taken the liberty of clipping the final conclusion - of Former FEDy chairman Greenspans "Gold & Economic..Freedom" below

In the absence of the gold standard,
- there is... no way... to protect savings from confiscation.... through inflation.
- There is no safe store of value.

If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal,
- as was done in the case of gold.
- If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power
- and government-created bank credit.... would be worthless as a claim on goods.

The financial policy of the welfare state... requires

- that there be....
- no way... for the owners of wealth - to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret....... of the welfare statists'.... tirades against gold.
- Deficit spending is simply .....a scheme for the confiscation of wealth.

Gold...... stands in the way of.... this insidious process.
- It stands .....as a protector of property rights.

If one grasps this,
- one has no difficulty in understanding
- the statists' antagonism toward... the gold standard.

Stocks to Miners Ratio...



S.

Neatly put Gaz - Yet when I try to relay that to my neighbour or family member I get a weird look and a quick change of subject ;-/

S.

$Silver Breakout!!...



S.

Sahara - as you know I am no chartist...but I really do try to follow the overall gist (with much appreciated notes & commentary that you add)
- in very broad laymans terms I gather ....post 429

- chart 1 - that gold has been pushed down to the 3rd green circle level - and an attempt could be made to push down to the forth...or a bounce towards $1700
- Chart 2 - would a break from peak to peak Harami - be app $1500
- Char 4 - indicating a likely bounce upwards, within the rising - trend channel

Post 432 (Stocks/Gold ratio)
- get the hell out of stocks :o)

Post 434

- Chart 1- silver may have broken out from the falling wedge & head towards its moving average
- chart 2 - silver has bottomed at its earlier peak with the strong prospect of silver heading back towards its 200day m.a
- Chart 3 - note is self explanatory
- chart 4 - tadge confused (waves stahes 1's & 2's ?)
- Chart 5 - Silver anticipated to assume an upward trend, within the overall rising channel

I wouldnt expect you to try to cover all that in detail - but an.. if that's in the general "ball park" will do (or a short basic pointer on which one ...I am furthest off on and why ....would be appreciated :o)

Remembering we are in Larger Wave-3 (Huge Green Numbers) and currently in fractal Wave-5 of the larger Wave-3 (Large Green No's and it looks like Wave-4 is in! And now in Wave-5 of 5 of 3! Will it Extend (Hopefully to 30 but that may be a bit too ambitious.))...



"

S.

Gaz - Yes! There is the potential for $Gold to dip again and tag the lower dotted blue line, which is another lateral support line. But, $Gold has made a valiant effort and has poked its head above the sharp downward facing 'Wedge' on a closing basis, it needs to affirm that move by extending the distance outside of the line .

Also looking at the second chart a monthly we can see the tail of last months candle dipped below the pattern objective and tagged the green 'Fib Cluster' line which as is shown denoted two major Fib levels aligning. The 61.8% of the move from the 08 low and the 38% Fib of the whole move up from 02. on a close only chart!!(Shown on the third chart in orange) Which also eerily lines up with a trnd channel support line. ))

The peak to peak 'Harami' is the dark downward sloping line from the top and price needs to break that line for it to be free of the current correction and a buy all you can at that point is required after loading up on a confirmation of the 'Harami'.

Be cognisant also that this monthly candle could power on up and form a 'Key reversal' and the the idea again is to be buying on the confirmation, which would be bext month. Although as with GDX some of us will be acquiring as cheap as we can utilising hedges in case we are wrong.

S.

Gaz - Post 432... I posted that chart on the other side right at the peak and was when I was diversifying from stocks in general mainly high dividend bearing stocks and the difference is app 100 points already.

That's not to say that I think stocks in general will tank. They may still go up for a while but the rate at which they do will be dramatically lower than miners. Also there could be a rally yet and a 'Double Top' to form? But the main thrust of the chart depicts the parabola that has occurred while miners have been hammered the last two years.

S.

Gaz - Post 434... A breakout is a good sign and one we always hope for. But like all signals it needs to be confirmed. Also on the chart is the shaded green area, note how the bands pincehd tight together prior to the breakout while the indicators were showing pos diverences and confirming each other.

Chart two shows the perfect re-test and subsequent bounce from the lateral support line, which also shows confirmation on chart 3 a monthly chart (where support shows up on various timeframes the more significant that support is).

Chart 4 shows Primary Wave1 and the corrective Wave-2 then the next Wave is depicted in Roman Numerals as they show the wave is a 'fractal Wave' i and then Wave-ii of the primary Wave-3!! Which indicates the massiff size of the overall Primary Wave-3 Because as you probably know Wave-3 can be the most dynamic so Wave iii will be HUGE but will only be Wave-iii of Wave-3 if you get my count?

This is hypothetical as I pointed out prior on the otherside when I posted that chart because the recent low has dipped below the peak of Wave-1 which is against the rules of EW (although I have seen it before but not on this scale) and therefoe this correction cannot be Wave-4 of the primary but Wave ii of the fractal of the primary. ;-o

Chart 5 Shows an uptrend channel. Where two or more points can be joined, a trend line can be drawn. But note there are tails below the trend line so I have used the upper (Top Channel line to gauge the trajectory and copied that to the bottom line, so at this point it is an assumption but the best one I could come to where the channel is parallel.

I hope I have explained it coherently

S.

There seems to be 5-Waves plotted with divergences showing on this 5th Wave so we may need to take a breather...



S.

Latest Bill Holter

What will you do

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/what-will-you-do

We got the pull back and now we can see a 'Bull Flag' Which should take us back to the high but will it go beyond?/...



S.

More and more articles are claiming seeing the manipulation getting out of control this year

http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2013/07/22/gold-price-up-2-to-1325-as-the-top-three-bullion-banks-go-net-long/

Saturn, I really appreciate your charts and in combination with your explanations of Gaz' workings out, it now becomes so much clearer.
Thank you

Snurkle - My pleasure. Thanks for all the insightful links you provide too. I may not mention it often but I do try to view them all.

Meanwhile, Just getting back from my cycle ride I see GDX has pushed above the the earlier high, I am wondering whether it has the oomph to press on to 30?/....



S.

If we pan out we can see what everyone should be familiar with now?/...A 'Wedge' but this time a Bearish one with accompanying divergences...



Remember that price usually extends above the bearish 'Wedge' and below the Bulish 'Wedge'.

S.

Nearly there...



S.