Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

chocolat,

I've been looking for a long entry all bloody evening, missed the one good opportunity, someone's got to get dinner..:-)
I am not good enough to short this, I feel.

Well there's only me to get dinner here Stormie - and there's 5 of us.

Makes a change...there are usually more :S

That may be so, but you know what you are doing, in both situations, makes a BIG difference....LOL

I was wrong, what a plonker :S
Long for now 17772

Forex - Euro surges to nearly two-month high against dollar - UPDATE 4
AFX


CHICAGO (AFX) - The euro was its richest against the dollar in nearly two months Wednesday as rosier European data have shifted focus to Continental growth and away from the solid U.S. performance.

Reports that Middle East oil proceeds are being redirected from U.S. dollars into euros, which follows Russia's announcement this week that it's shifting more of its central bank reserves to euros, fueled the sharp gains for the common currency, traders said.

But its ascent was also largely the result of the break of a key chart area. The euro had rammed $1.2250 several times this week only to be knocked back. That is, before Wednesday's successful charge took the shared currency as high as $1.2333.

The euro hasn't been above this level since it hit $1.2352 on June 7. It was more recently changing hands at $1.2329, a gain of more than 1% from where it stood late Tuesday.

The common currency did risk some pull back ahead of Friday's U.S. jobs report, which is seen showing a continued steady clip of payrolls additions.

For now, however, 'the latest batch of reports from Europe is confirming the market's view that the days of gloomy economic news from the Continent may be over,' said Boris Schlossberg, senior market analyst with Forex Capital Markets, New York.

The dollar's losses were aggravated by a softer-than-expected reading of the U.S. service economy, even though the report did little to sway expectations for continued dollar-supportive interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

The Institute of Supply Management nonmanufacturing index slipped to 60.5% from 62.2% in June. The drop was more than expected.

The euro broke out of a trading range that had persisted for roughly the past three months.

'As the euro's 20-day moving average crosses above its 40-day moving average, traders witness this gradual but succinct change in trend, which could pave the way toward $1.25 by summer's end,' said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial Group, New York.

'Although we see chances of $1.24 in the coming weeks, we expect the pair to end the month at $1.2350 as further Fed rate hikes will continue provide support for the greenback.'

Other currencies gained against the U.S. currency because of general dollar weakness.

The greenback was down 0.2% to 111.14 yen. The yen has fallen against a host of major currencies as political uncertainty persists.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's risks an interim election being called in the wake of his controversial postal reform bills, which will be voted on Friday.

The pound was up 0.5% to $1.7793 even as a growing number of central bank watchers think the Bank of England will trim its 4.75% target lending rate at Thursday's meeting.

The euro rally comes amid concern that recent positive data from the U.S. have failed to provide a further boost for the greenback.

But the economic landscape for the euro may be changing as well.

June retail sales in the euro zone rose 0.4% and a measure of the service-sector economy there, the PMI index, rose to 53.5 points in July from 53.1 in June.

Both figures came in above what had been forecast.

'A lower euro, which helped spur demand for the region's crucial export sector, along with recent political calm and stability after the early summer upheaval of the European Union constitution ratification process, have all served to change market sentiment toward the currency in the past few weeks,' Schlossberg said.

'But the other, perhaps more telling note, is that the foreign exchange market may have already started to discount the possibility of U.S. economic slowdown,' he said.

A report in London's Daily Telegraph said oil revenue is increasingly being spent in Europe, and rumors circulated of Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti buying of euros.

That news follows an announcement earlier this week that the Russian central bank was moving to a 65%-35% dollar-euro mix for its reserves from 70%-30% previously.



This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com.

A bit of complacency set in today with the old shorting game - a quick rundown before I murder the dinner..

The next cable short target after yesterday's 1.7740/50s was 1.7780s, and if I hadn't been on the phone to someone when it shot up I'd have ploughed in, so when it pulled back briefly from 1.7784 I went long. The move up was too swift for it not to go through 1.78. Instead of applying the usual logic and shorting it once it ran out of steam because the MACDs said so, I took some off at 1.7825 and let the rest run with a view to adding if it could stay above 1.78. I gave up on that tack this afternoon and reversed at 1.7810 and closed it before I left work at 1.7773.

That's it then...back to shorting mode. I'm just not comfortable with longs at the moment :S

Choccy,

It's not a criticism ......... just an observation, so please don't take offence.

Why the fcuk are you trying to short something that wants to go up?

chocolat,

Thank you for the storyboard, it is good to see another's thinking...:-)
(Mind you, I get told off for thinking too much...lol )

ps, left work at 1.7773 eh......sneaking out early then, I'll tell the boss..:-)

Subtlety rules eh, Hils.
I traded cable long from below 1.73 until changing stance on Monday afternoon, since when I traded 5 shorts up to early this morning for 200 points, plus 80 odd from today. If I'd stayed long on Monday at 1.7710 I'd be about 80 points up as I write.

I like the way you qualify your observation, but I'm not sure what you're getting at?

Stormie - I was spotted :)
No worries though, I won't confuse anyone any more.

Choccie,

It was just an observation that cable has been well supported of late and is still rising. Every pip made on the short tack could probably have been 2 or 3 on the long tack. Maybe I'm too old for the stress, but I just don't see the point in trading against the trend.

Well done on your 200 pips.

Hils - I think the point I was trying to make on Monday was that I felt cable would struggle to break up out of the 1.77 level, and I wasn't afraid to say I was wrong yesterday, but when it failed to maintain 1.78 my conviction was renewed for now. All I've done is follow the chart to whatever level it takes me before I feel comfortable - so there's really no stress involved :)
My support line isn't as steep as the one you described the other day (although I can't find your post now) and I closed today's second short earlier as it bounced from 1.7741. It could be that my support line is still too steep, otherwise it looks like it was breached in the early hours yesterday and earlier this morning, looking at it in a candlesticky way.

Choccy,

I too have revised my rising support line. I now have a line connecting the 10am low from 29th July with the other more recent lows. Generally speaking, trends do not turn during Asian trade as appeared to be the case early yesterday morning.

I also agree that this current level is an obstacle as it provided support last autumn which turned into resistance last month. The hourlies are overbought and a retracement from here might well be on the cards. The daily oscillators, however, show it rising from an oversold position and bouncing from support on the multi-year uptrend. The bulls don't look ready to give up the fight just yet.

I'll be surprised if we don't see another 10 cents from here over the next few weeks.

I think Hils is now on Hols and the FX Fairy slept in.

Economic Data Release Calendar now updated. Apologies for late arrival at the FX Ball.

Thanks :)
X

Long AUD/USD @.7615

Out of the blocks, Sputtie ;)

Choc :-)

I traded the 2month outright maybe should have taken the spot

Only a brief appearance. Haven't been trading cable for a couple of months. Went short @ 7955 and 7948 with stops - still in - @ 8000.

Looking good so far - going out for a Balti to Typhoon Alley soon so may close them now there seems to be a bit of support above 7900. Limits set @ 7900 for net +103 - always over-egging a good thing ;)

How ya doin chocciepops - I see you've been keeping your end up on the Forex thread. You should be in the chocolat bar kitchen, or doin' a bit of ironing - I dunno, wimmin !!!

mg XIV (still hiding in the shadows)

Nice to see a new and an old face in here.
Funny that, everyone always seems to think I should be somewhere else ;)
I'll put up my trades when I get home - btw ten four, I was looking for 1.79 too :)

Only goes to show we're both bonkers

I cannot believe it - she said the b word ...........

I have not and never have been b.......... Anyway, I wouldn't know how to do b.......

mg XIV (and none of the Nuns know what you are talking about - they have no idea what b........ing is - they only do praying - on their knees, bent over, looking ever so angelic, mouthing chants and stuff ........)