Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Fred.

The volume of exports from the €U has been falling for years.

They are more interested in creating rules and regulations than jobs.


Check it out before you make such all encompassing statements.

Max

You seem stuck in the past.

Think of the future.

and this from the man who forever harks back to attlee!

cynic
As I know you don't not like copy and paste, I have written down my thoughts on the EU.

Whether we like it or not, the EU is heading for federalism. It will become the 'United States of Europe'. There can be no doubt about this as it is necessary for the working of the EU.

The introduction of the Euro and the problems it has created show the necessity of closer political union. To join the Euro a country has to meet the 'convergence criteria'. These tests include inflation not more than 1.5% above the average of the lowest members, budget deficit not more than 3%, the size of a country's sovereign debt as a percentage of GDP not more than 60%, not have devalued in previous 2 years, its current interest rates and 10 year bond rates not more than 2% higher than average of lowest members. It is quite clear now that several countries faked their data. These include Italy, Greece with serious fraud and to some extent Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Historically, when a country got into financial trouble, there were things it could do to fix the problem. The most important was to devalue their currency. This made exports cheaper which helped their industry. It also meant, specifically in the cases of Italy and Greece, that tourism increased due to the currency being weaker. The other tool was the use of interest rates. This has many uses in the economy. High interest rates makes the currency attractive and it will revalue up, low interest rates cause the opposite. Interest rates can be used to control a tendency towards debt and slow or speed up the economy.

The weaker countries in the Euro had access to cheap money from the EU and spent it on huge infrastructure projects such as Greece, where it would have been cheaper to send all passengers to their destinations by taxis than build their new railway.

The methods of devaluation and interest rates have been taken away because all the countries use the same currency. Interest rates are set for all Euro countries by the European Central Bank (ECB). The net result was that countries in trouble had no tools to resolve the problem. The only alternative was to reduce consumption (austerity).

This situation will occur again at some stage. An answer has to be found if the EU and the Euro are to survive. The answer is for more central control. It requires that the ECB sets budgets for individual countries, controls all borrowing at a country and personal level and sets taxation levels. It has to take away all the methods of a country getting into trouble.

The convergence criteria are applied every two years and the lack of central control is evident. All members of the Euro members would now NOT pass the tests and would not be admitted to the Euro. That includes Germany which fails on the debt test.

The introduction of the Euro happened before political and fiscal union. In retrospect, it is now obvious that the Euro came too soon. A longer transition was needed to achieve the level of federalism needed. Then the Euro could have been introduced once the controls were in place.

The EU is relentlessly heading down this path to create stability for the Euro and the economy of the EU. There are side effects of the move towards federalism and central control. We are seeing these already in terms of the EU laws and regulations that apply to the UK. The financial transactions tax is an example. We can stay where we are outside the Euro, but we will increasingly be subject to rules that apply to those in the Euro. We will end up with all the regulations but without the benefits.

We seem to be heading towards a choice. If we want to stay in the EU, we will be sucked into the Euro at some point as the regulations will become increasingly onerous to be outside. If we join then our chancellor will have to give up control of our economy to the ECB as will the Bank of England regarding interest rates. In the longer term our government will have little to do as the bulk of our laws will be federal laws.

As much as I like the original premise of a 'common market', I now don't like the direction that it is heading. If we are going to leave, then the sooner the better.

Manuel,

Unlike yourself some of us are prepared to learn from the past, but not dwell in it like yesterday's men!


I know it is difficult for old reactionaries like you to realise that societies are moving and they are not stuck in the days of the Raj.

But Cameron is doing well in Brussels , if you hurry you should be able to earn a tip carrying his bags.

Haze,

Quite a reasonable post.

Disagree about the conclusion, but that is choice.

Just wonder if you suppose UK is outside the EU in 25 years time, what the UK economy will be like and especially what the effect will be on London Financial Services?

I think much of the "business and research" cooperation now happening between European countries and the UK will be reduced!

i liked hays post too, and certainly i am far from enamoured with the concept of "inevitable federalism", and have yet to see any reason at all why this should be a "good thing" ...... for sure the morbidly obese eurocrats love the idea, for they run their own show for their own benefit more and more with seemingly no accountability to anyone other than themselves

i see no merit at all in expanding eu membership to include almost every rag tag and bobtail, no matter how parlous their economy, especially as even the core 7/12 countries aren't even "in tune" ..... running before walking is an understatement

on the other hand, there must surely be good reasons for staying within this augean stable, but wait to hear some cogent arguments as to what those might be and why it would truly be such a disaster if UK did indeed pull out

EU sets Monday deadline for Russia to act on Ukraine
The EU has set Russia a deadline of Monday to take concrete steps towards implementing a peace plan in eastern Ukraine or risk sanctions against entire sectors of its economy, such as energy, finance and defence.
Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president, told EU leaders at a summit in Brussels that his peace plan – which was meant to be underpinned by a ceasefire this week – had failed to stop attacks by militants backed by Moscow.

============

will this entail shouting "BOO!!!" down a foghorn and be just as effective?

I would think (hope) Putin is putting "reliance" of the cost of tuning "fuel" taps on and "off".


I hope there are a few oil tankers spare and the ME is quieter before December!

If BOO! doesent work, they can always try stamping their feet and blowing rasberries.

try gas (LNG) rather than oil

We will end up with all the regulations but without the benefits.


What rules and regs would apply to blighty that would not apply to the rest of the world?

Yes, a good post Haystack.

When I voted UKIP in the MEP elections, it was to try to send a message saying how I want some better negotiated terms for our membership.

The appointment of Juncker to head up the EU is a good indication of how powerless our politicians are to influence things. (As an aside to this, I do admire Cameron for sticking to his guns in such a determined way to try to prevent it and, despite what some of his political opponents say, I don't feel he will suffer because of his stance).

In simple personal terms, I don't want to be part of a very badly run Federal State that just pees money up the wall and would just keep on raise taxes to astronomic levels to make everyone pay for such massive waste. That's what we seem to be getting and so again, in very simple terms, I want us out of the EU.

I hope I don't have to vote UKIP in the GE to try to get what I want. For several reasons, I do want to vote for our Tory MP, Andrea Leadsom. But even if we do get the promised Tory 'In/Out' Referendum I can't see us being able to make any use of it.

The size of our economy, being the 6th biggest in the world, tells me we can 'go it alone'. If they create regulations and won't buy our Land Rovers, then we will just have to tell them to 'Get Stuffed', stop buying their Mercs and buy Land Rover's cars ourselves. Etc., etc., etc.

Boris asks the kids a key question...

Cynic,

I stand corrected!

---------
Exec,

UK Economy 6th biggest, descending in ranks.

Population UK (including Scotland) 63.5 million, EU28 states 506 million, increasing in size!

I think I would prefer to be fishing in the nearest pool.

so much for swathes of europe voting for significant overhaul of the eu structure ...... do we give a hoot, say the morbidly obese?

Juncker nominated for Commission president
Jean-Claude Juncker, the former Luxembourg prime minister, has been nominated by the EU’s presidents and prime ministers to become the next head of the European Commission over the strong objection of Britain’s David Cameron.
Mr Juncker, who has served nearly 30 years in Luxembourg and European politics, must now be approved by the European parliament, which is scheduled to vote on his nomination in mid-July. His confirmation is all but assured

And Cameron will claim it is all down to his negotiating skills.

Winning friends and influencing people and make it easier to get the changes he thinks are necessary!

Europe must groan when he appears on the stage.

Although, it is sometimes reasonable to stick out like a sore thumb, making a habit of it would suggest a need for a visit to his therapist for a reality check.

==========

.

Juncker is reputed to have a serious drink problem. There are accounts of him drinking glass of cognac at breakfast meetings.

and if DC had not stood his ground, you would no doubt have rabbitted on about how weak he was not to stick by his guns

MT, whom you love dearly, would no doubt have approved of DC's stance ..... certainly i think it was pretty courageous, though arguably not handled to best advantage - we only know what we are told or read - and i concur with Exec that it will have done his standing with uk electorate no harm at all