The Martian - Lets Do The Math (a bit of fun)

The Martian - CTO takes off like Mark Watney (some more fun)

The Math - CTO background, financial metrics and financial modelling Sept 2018(the serious stuff)

Directors present at Mello video Nov 2018

Investors Chronicle Alpha 17 page article Dec 2018
https://pdfs.investorschronicle.co.uk/IC_Alpha_TClarke_Simon_0712.pdf

Company Website

Financial Calendar

Recent Broker notes & Director Purchases

BarChart Indicators

Recent Market news

TClarke Fundamentals (CTO)

Old thread here

If you do nothing else read the serious stuff link. The basis proposition for the trade is that even in the worst case scenario, with a forecast EPS of 13.2p per share and a dividend of 3.5p per share so much cash is being retained in the business that for a company with £11.7m net cash at 2017 year end, we reach a point soon where the directors have to increase the dividends by more than 10% a year and the share price rises as well.

Market expectations of profit before tax £7m with £4m done at half time, £12m net cash and a market cap of £35m and a growing business with improving margins.

Thanks Skinny. It's nice when a plan comes together. I feel very comfortable with this share.

My thoughts from this morning:
I'm pleased to see the hard work of the directors is now beginning to be reflected in the share price.

I found the update interesting. Headline " TCLARKE REPORTS SUSTAINED GROWTH IN ORDER BOOK AND PROFITABILITY

AND IS DEBT FREE"

And is debt free gets it's own sentence and is in bold at the top. Clearly the directors wish to point out the strength of the balance sheet. And rightly so. The construction sector has been hit with warning after warning over cash and many investors won't touch it any longer because of this. Carillion goes bust, IRV on it's last legs even after cash injection a year ago, Laing O'Rourke filing accounts late as they can't get them signed off until they have reached agreement with their banks, Galliford rights issue a year ago, Kier rights issue a few weeks ago. Any number of smaller competitors going bust.

So, how many listed construction companies out there can claim to be debt free and have £12m in the bank? only two I think, CTO and NMNC (and go look at their share price over the last 3 years and see what it did for them). Rightly they should shout loud about this, to investors, clients and suppliers. It makes me sleep easy at night.


And then this from the CEO:
The Board continues to look forward with optimism and we remain focussed on delivering an improving financial performance as we move through the year."
I grinned from ear to ear when I read this. What I believe it says is "things are going pretty well, we're almost sure we're going to upgrade the numbers later in the year but it would not be prudent to do so only one month into the year no matter how confident we are"


I can't get my head round N+1 latest figures. Where does that dividend forecast come from? Profits up 18.6% in the year, yet dividends only up 5.7%. What are they on? Did they not notice the interim was up 10% and by implication surely the final will be up at least 10%. And as for 3.9p in 2019. That makes no sense either. If £8.6m=14.7p EPS, then 16.3p=£9.5m. They forecast profits up 11% but dividends up only 5.4%. They are forecasting a company with £12m in the bank and no debt is going to only pay out 24% as dividends and as the profits get bigger they will pay out less and less and dividends on a proportional basis! If that's true, the dividend bill will be £1.6m, the corporation tax bill will be £1.6m and all other things be equal with working capital CTO will end 2019 with £18m in their bank account. Not that I would object to £18m in the bank account but I think it more likely N+! don't have a scooby and that's part of the reason the share price is so low.

Anyways all good from where I'm sitting. I particularly like the progress on intelligent buildings with Eton. Got to be good for margins. Hurrah. I suspect they will upgrade market expectations at interims or November update. All this against a fairly dull construction economic background. If ever they fix Brexit this is going to fly. Of course I've been thinking that for 2 years now...

Pick us some more like these CC.

Cheers , great spot.

to go after. money AM ends any suggestion BB ps am comfortable with CTO

Rocket boosters firing in last 10 minutes. I don't know why. Other than it's ridiculously undervalued of course

Edit: In IC today I'm told

Up 12% now. ;-)

Wow , who lit the blue touch paper ?

Fly baby fly :-)

It's escaped the gravitational force of Earth now.

My chart skills are not good enough to tell me where the next resistance point is, so I'll just go with 280p

Arguably @150p.

Thanks Skinny. 150p as a stepping stone will do fine.

That chart looking very nice indeed