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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

pachandl - 23 May 2005 10:24 - 43 of 1009

OG - I have already disagreed with that sentiment. A large part of RTD's profits are derived from the Aussie Petrol business, not internet retailing, so a comparison with Cyber is always going to be very difficult. Moreover, analysts hate to value businesses which are made up of totally different areas of trade (and consequent growth prospects), which is why RTD will always lag Cyber's P/E rating. But I continue to hold and still believe that 50p by year end is perfectly possible.

overgrowth - 23 May 2005 11:24 - 44 of 1009

pachandl - good point re. the fuel cards.

I suspect that Cybersource's rating is so high because the US are much more bullish about the growth prospects for on-line trading (after all they're still a bit ahead of us on that front).

Much of what starts in the US end up here, so in theory some of that positive sentiment should rub off on RTD as the year progresses.

pachandl - 23 May 2005 11:54 - 45 of 1009

OG - accepted. The US like punchier ratings for growth companies. It just shows how difficult it is to compare RTD and Cyber given their different listings and activities. Let's just hope that today's positive start runs through this week.

Fred1new - 23 May 2005 23:30 - 46 of 1009

The problem or good thing about RTD s they don't release a lot of information except at interims (9/10/2005) and finals. Why should they? I doubt that the price will move back much until a week or two before the 9th

Fred1new - 25 May 2005 11:17 - 47 of 1009

Having read my last post I would like some information. Price dropping ratio of Sells to buys 13/87. No news or information I can find. Is this the result of traders buying on the recent paper info and cutting losses and followed by the herd or has anybody got info they would like to share.

The fundamentals are sound, expectation good, can't see the contracts being renegade on, Why?



Looking at the charts I wouldn't buy, but?

overgrowth - 25 May 2005 11:40 - 48 of 1009

Fred - I think the MMs have had enough of poor trading in RTD and are now dropping the price to the 26p support level to trigger a load of stop losses, gather in plenty of shares, and then cause a significant buying bounce back as Daves Dazzlers gets his wish (and lots of others too).

I agree that fundamentals, market sector conditions and a whole host of other things are all looking very positive for RTD. I personally thought that these reasons would be enough to cause a bounce at the 28p level. We know that RTD has a 12 month price target projected to be 45p, I guess we'll see the usual mad buying scramble a bit closer to the next results which will take them up to that level. It's amazing that people who refuse to buy now will be happy in a couple of months to be paying 38p, 40p etc. when we see the upward trend again.

This is a well established, highly profitable company with a massive portfolio of blue chip clients - a fair value currently is around mid. 30's. Bargain time for those brave enough to have the confidence to see through the sentiment and look at the business basics.

capetown - 25 May 2005 11:47 - 49 of 1009

I braved rtd @28.75,and will hold,as i agree with you,short and long term trend is UP

Fundamentalist - 25 May 2005 11:53 - 50 of 1009

Personal thoughts for what its worth are that from a chart perspective things dont look great and if it gets to 26p, this will be a significant support area that needs to hold. On last yrs results on basic EPS of 1.06p this is still currently on a PE of 25 and on broker consensus of basic EPS it is still on a forward PE of over 20. I think the broker forecasts for this yr are conservative though i also think most holders expectations are optimistic. As i have said before i see fair value as approx 30p based on my prediction of this yr results, with the key components being turning the growth in online transactions/new contracts into revenue/profit growth and the size of decline in CP transactions/revenue/profits. If they can demonstarte the translation of increased CNP transactions into revenue/profits then the SP will rocket again.

Looking to buy back in but looking for chart support to hold or for the fundamental position to change

all imho dyor etc etc

Fred1new - 25 May 2005 15:50 - 51 of 1009

I tend to agree but just a little more optimistic about the future. By the way where is optimistic.

overgrowth - 25 May 2005 15:53 - 52 of 1009

Buyers appear to be coming back now - interesting to see that someone was happy to spend 177,000 buying a few this afternoon.

"optomistic" I last saw on the MDW board.

Fred1new - 25 May 2005 18:08 - 53 of 1009

overgrowth You will have to stop smoking that weed if you are seeing Optimistic on a BB,



*-)

overgrowth - 26 May 2005 09:55 - 54 of 1009

Looks as though Douggie'll have to give up on the weed also - he's just posted an exclamation mark on the old thread lol!

Douggie - 26 May 2005 10:13 - 55 of 1009

!....!

Oakapples142 - 27 May 2005 07:57 - 56 of 1009


Help - what are the likely affects of to-days RNS

skyhigh - 27 May 2005 09:09 - 57 of 1009

Don't know... but it doesn't sound that good does it?.. perhaps someone else can enlighten us !

Oakapples142 - 27 May 2005 09:14 - 58 of 1009


Skyhigh - that was my reaction - however, so far to-day buying and selling is about even - so perhaps most traders are in the dark

Fred1new - 27 May 2005 10:08 - 59 of 1009

Fundy Where are you when you are wanted. I think it RNS is referring to profit due to different taxation systems. Possibly due to some turnover coming under American taxation system. Don't know really. Experts please!!

Douggie - 27 May 2005 10:28 - 60 of 1009

Don't worry

have you forgot.....the watchword here........it will go UP...;o\

Fred1new - 27 May 2005 10:38 - 61 of 1009

Douggie In real life that only refers to my weight. But I think you are right.
Not worried just trembling!!
8-0

pachandl - 27 May 2005 11:51 - 62 of 1009

Most companies are voluntarily moving across to the new system - there is nothing to really worry about. The results for last year had already included a schedule of adjustment. The benefit is that the new system will be compulsorily adopted across the whole of the EC, enabling more accurate comparisons to be made between companies operating in different countries. Unfortunately the real comparison I want to make is between RTD and Cyber but the yanks use a different system!
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