rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Sideways movement for the FTSE & DOW during may, with no sign yet of a downwards trend. Living in hope!

Oil tipped by OPEC to reach $75 pb, house builders & miners keeping the stock market bouyant, Russian investors piling in to the Moscow exchange, house prices up during the last month & fund managers are increasing their share holdings. (All FT headlines).
DOW futures currently +136 & the froth on the markets looks likely to continue for the time being. Those still sitting on cash must be looking longingly at the current rally.

some of us are looking at the potential frothiness of the market and taking some money off the table

and having looked at the later trading in NY, my bet (but not my money!) is that there will be a sharp pull-back tomorrow ...... all i have done is reduce my general exposure a bit

Nevertheless, the markets are buzzing at present & I am glad I am in rather than just watching. Bound to be a correction soon, but not sure if it will be tomorrow.

As RIO is a FTSE100 constituent, I reckon it may drag the miners & market down on friday with it's news of a probable, unexpected rights issue.

EDIT: Well I called that totally wrong. Both BLT & RIO up 10% already today (5th).

it's been very quiet on here recently. not surprising since ftse has been going sideways for what seems so long, since 7th may in a circa 200 point range. is it about to break out? or has it already done so today? i'm not sure what to make of this, traditional technicals suggest that such sideways movements usually break out in the direction of the move into it, in this case that would be upwards. if it breaks upwards it is suggested it will move at the very least the width of the sideways congestion band being circa 200 points. above the upper band, and most probably as much as the initial move up into the original lower band which is often much greater.
assuming upper band level to be say 4520 this would suggest a minimum targeted price of 4720 sh.and maybe more.
we are now approaching the 2nd quarter end where we often see lows and highs made that continue and hold into the next quarter.
if we are bullish we might want to see some lower prices over next few days and look to buy into the lows with some tight stop losses available to us.
if we are bearish we might like to do the same although those same tight stop losses may not be available to us.although it may be to some, depending on the time scale being used.
i'm still nett long but still long term bearish, plenty of stocks such as miners look very overbought based on rsi etc.
the last couple of days or so have proven to me once again how important it is to have a selection of both longs and shorts in my trading portfolio.
any views anyone? have we broken to the downside? or will we recover and continue up?
regards
jkd

Any good news due? Looks like down before up.

h
i agree with you about lack of good news. i agree with you about down before up also , thats why i just wonder, well, maybe sometimes logic doesnt apply to the market.
we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
regards and good luck
jkd

currently running a small short on ftse from 4360sh level just to help hedge against my longs, many of which are sitting on or near to support levels so reluctant to sell them at moment. also some of my individual shorts are also in the money but may rally or may not so have tightened all stops. what a web.
regards
jkd

It seems to me that the ftse has underperformed other indices of late with its defensive qualities(e.g. dax 720 point premium of late, it has lots of cyclicals). Perhaps much of the rally has been related to the stimulus packages worldwide and low interest rates... causing the libor the lifeblood of leverage to drop. Seems to be a tussle between recovery+hyperinflation, vs. post stimulus depression and deflation. The bond market spreads seem to be widening which I understand will lead to more expensive mortgages which will further pressure the indebted consumer, so some are recommending buying fixed rate mortgages now before they spike. I think volatility might be around the corner again, remember those crazy 1000 point dow moves in a matter of hours!

I'm back in hibernation now so not really following any threads or the market much. :-)

My guess is the market will test the 4000 level (or there abouts) before a bounce back towards 4300, probably with some sideways movement. Unless things change significantly in the world economy I'd expect another major sell off in late Autumn, which will test and then probably take out the lows.

If you look back to the 1930s (not the same but a good reference point), large fast bear market rallies have been followed by equally large % declines. If my (still bearish) prediction plays out, I'll be looking to buy for a Christmas/New Year rally towards the end of the year.

Have a good summer everyone.

Strawbs.
Back to the bear cave now until the Autumn......

Tis a strange thing. Most so called experts are predicting that the market is now going to roll over as we head for a double bottom and yet unless my eyes deceive me, there is more liquidity in the market this am and spreads have come in on some stocks which would suggest that the problems are easing and the market may go north.

Next FTSE support at 4196 I think. DOW support at 8269.
I will look forward to a considerable market boost then, Strawbs, when your stockpiled cash hits the market! Roll on the New year!!!

Think I've been pretty consistent DD with my bearish view, but then I'm no expert. I think the pundits are generally guilty of following short term trends, rather than taking a big picture view. Still. The media may be partly to blame, giving more air time to views that support the prevailing trend.

If only my stockpile was that big Harry. :-)

Strawbs.

as always in these situations, the signals are very confused .... for the immediate future (tomorrow!) the entrails offer encouragement with Wall Street effectively unmoved but oil +$1.87 at $69.37

OIL and connected issues
it is plain for all to see that crude is now heading back to levels where most regions will deem it worthwhile to re-commence development and similar work ..... and you can count Saudi into that equation too, for Aramco, who control these things in The Kingdom, shut up shop 4/6 months ago.

our business has a peripheral though relevant interest in these aspects, and market intelligence is that, though recovery is still pretty fragile, it is assuredly happening across quite a broad spectrum.

to my mind, that makes the likes of Lamprell an even more likely t/o target, and i dare say Kentz and others fall into a similar category.

Petrofac will be an undoubted beneficiary, as well as a probable predator.

Both LAM & KENZ pulled back by at least 10% recently, but the charts not looking particularly interesting. Maybe summer malaise setting in, but with next div in Oct for LAM, I can't see much immediate upside for either of them, unless M&A rumours start.

KENZ was too iliquid for me, but have actually visited LAM and it's a very professional set-up ..... divi is uninteresting ..... it's renewed oilfield activity that will spark sp (t/o rumours being just a bonus), and my own perception is that this is already beginning to happen (gently)

Could be a rocky afternoon on the FTSE as important U.S. data out today:
1:15pm GMT US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, 3:30pm GMT US Crude Oil Inventories , US Total Vehicle Sales.