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Stocks to Miners Ratio...



S.

Neatly put Gaz - Yet when I try to relay that to my neighbour or family member I get a weird look and a quick change of subject ;-/

S.

$Silver Breakout!!...



S.

Sahara - as you know I am no chartist...but I really do try to follow the overall gist (with much appreciated notes & commentary that you add)
- in very broad laymans terms I gather ....post 429

- chart 1 - that gold has been pushed down to the 3rd green circle level - and an attempt could be made to push down to the forth...or a bounce towards $1700
- Chart 2 - would a break from peak to peak Harami - be app $1500
- Char 4 - indicating a likely bounce upwards, within the rising - trend channel

Post 432 (Stocks/Gold ratio)
- get the hell out of stocks :o)

Post 434

- Chart 1- silver may have broken out from the falling wedge & head towards its moving average
- chart 2 - silver has bottomed at its earlier peak with the strong prospect of silver heading back towards its 200day m.a
- Chart 3 - note is self explanatory
- chart 4 - tadge confused (waves stahes 1's & 2's ?)
- Chart 5 - Silver anticipated to assume an upward trend, within the overall rising channel

I wouldnt expect you to try to cover all that in detail - but an.. if that's in the general "ball park" will do (or a short basic pointer on which one ...I am furthest off on and why ....would be appreciated :o)

Remembering we are in Larger Wave-3 (Huge Green Numbers) and currently in fractal Wave-5 of the larger Wave-3 (Large Green No's and it looks like Wave-4 is in! And now in Wave-5 of 5 of 3! Will it Extend (Hopefully to 30 but that may be a bit too ambitious.))...



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S.

Gaz - Yes! There is the potential for $Gold to dip again and tag the lower dotted blue line, which is another lateral support line. But, $Gold has made a valiant effort and has poked its head above the sharp downward facing 'Wedge' on a closing basis, it needs to affirm that move by extending the distance outside of the line .

Also looking at the second chart a monthly we can see the tail of last months candle dipped below the pattern objective and tagged the green 'Fib Cluster' line which as is shown denoted two major Fib levels aligning. The 61.8% of the move from the 08 low and the 38% Fib of the whole move up from 02. on a close only chart!!(Shown on the third chart in orange) Which also eerily lines up with a trnd channel support line. ))

The peak to peak 'Harami' is the dark downward sloping line from the top and price needs to break that line for it to be free of the current correction and a buy all you can at that point is required after loading up on a confirmation of the 'Harami'.

Be cognisant also that this monthly candle could power on up and form a 'Key reversal' and the the idea again is to be buying on the confirmation, which would be bext month. Although as with GDX some of us will be acquiring as cheap as we can utilising hedges in case we are wrong.

S.

Gaz - Post 432... I posted that chart on the other side right at the peak and was when I was diversifying from stocks in general mainly high dividend bearing stocks and the difference is app 100 points already.

That's not to say that I think stocks in general will tank. They may still go up for a while but the rate at which they do will be dramatically lower than miners. Also there could be a rally yet and a 'Double Top' to form? But the main thrust of the chart depicts the parabola that has occurred while miners have been hammered the last two years.

S.

Gaz - Post 434... A breakout is a good sign and one we always hope for. But like all signals it needs to be confirmed. Also on the chart is the shaded green area, note how the bands pincehd tight together prior to the breakout while the indicators were showing pos diverences and confirming each other.

Chart two shows the perfect re-test and subsequent bounce from the lateral support line, which also shows confirmation on chart 3 a monthly chart (where support shows up on various timeframes the more significant that support is).

Chart 4 shows Primary Wave1 and the corrective Wave-2 then the next Wave is depicted in Roman Numerals as they show the wave is a 'fractal Wave' i and then Wave-ii of the primary Wave-3!! Which indicates the massiff size of the overall Primary Wave-3 Because as you probably know Wave-3 can be the most dynamic so Wave iii will be HUGE but will only be Wave-iii of Wave-3 if you get my count?

This is hypothetical as I pointed out prior on the otherside when I posted that chart because the recent low has dipped below the peak of Wave-1 which is against the rules of EW (although I have seen it before but not on this scale) and therefoe this correction cannot be Wave-4 of the primary but Wave ii of the fractal of the primary. ;-o

Chart 5 Shows an uptrend channel. Where two or more points can be joined, a trend line can be drawn. But note there are tails below the trend line so I have used the upper (Top Channel line to gauge the trajectory and copied that to the bottom line, so at this point it is an assumption but the best one I could come to where the channel is parallel.

I hope I have explained it coherently

S.

There seems to be 5-Waves plotted with divergences showing on this 5th Wave so we may need to take a breather...



S.

Latest Bill Holter

What will you do

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/what-will-you-do

We got the pull back and now we can see a 'Bull Flag' Which should take us back to the high but will it go beyond?/...



S.

More and more articles are claiming seeing the manipulation getting out of control this year

http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2013/07/22/gold-price-up-2-to-1325-as-the-top-three-bullion-banks-go-net-long/

Saturn, I really appreciate your charts and in combination with your explanations of Gaz' workings out, it now becomes so much clearer.
Thank you

Snurkle - My pleasure. Thanks for all the insightful links you provide too. I may not mention it often but I do try to view them all.

Meanwhile, Just getting back from my cycle ride I see GDX has pushed above the the earlier high, I am wondering whether it has the oomph to press on to 30?/....



S.

If we pan out we can see what everyone should be familiar with now?/...A 'Wedge' but this time a Bearish one with accompanying divergences...



Remember that price usually extends above the bearish 'Wedge' and below the Bulish 'Wedge'.

S.

Nearly there...



S.

Sahara - cheers for the time and explanations and putting them in my sort of language
(with regard to my increased understanding - as the supermarket says - every little helps, thank you).

It seems overall adding the technicals to - actual physical events
(GLD draining of physical - 11 days plus negative GOFO rates - plunging comex invent-ory, LBMA delivery times extended from 3 to 5 days etc etc)
- it seems we are at a crossroads/inflection point from most persectives
- all of which in a sane world "should" point to higher prices

- however in la-la land of zirp, Spain tapping it's welfare/pension fund for a "wonga style loan", plunge protection team & dark op ESF intervention, coupled with central banks leaning on the "print buttons"
- and a gold cartel that will try anything to keep control of their ponzi/fractionalised/leveraged/hypothecated bullion game etc
- then anything would seem possible in la-la land.

So, it seems a hard call, until we see which way they want/allow it to go.
(& even that ...is excluding any f/flags and any manipulated black swans, they choose to throw as spanners in the works)

Snurkle - with regard to more in the way of "hard calls" - Holter raises a very timely
- What will you do, piece

The conundrums he raises just.... re what you would do metals wise
- if the metals seem to be just one step beyond the blue touch paper ...would in a real unfolding situation
- test your belief in your own judgement, as to what to do.

With regard to what our judgement considers to be... "next" down the line... in the likely unfolding scenario,
- would be an even greater test in our belief of our - own judgement , as to expected chain of events &... required action.

Should my own judgement be that this Holter scenarion - is "in play" at some point
( a given when, not if imo)
......................................................................................................................
i.e
An explosion in the price of gold (in reality an implosion in the value of the dollar) will not get me to do a “happy dance” (except for maybe 5 seconds until I whack myself across the back of the head to get my butt in gear).
Hopefully, and God willing,
- I will calmly go to the gas station with my cars to fill them up.
- Then it will be off to the grocery store to purchase some fresh items that will maybe last a week or so,
- I will also top off on whatever dry and canned goods that are needed.
In other words, I will be making last minute and final preparations…for a future and unspecified time period of hibernation.
........................................................................................................................

I think my own first decision.... will be the easiest
- get clean underwear.

An interesting comparison re where we are now versus - the 1975/6 position.
(quite uncanny- near correlation)

- if any such correlation repeated.... the next part of the 75/76 performance
- would it be ...whoosh & happy days
- or the signal that the above Holter scenario is - "in play"....
- and time to stock up on...fresh underwear??

Well worth a quick speed read

Well that's ...
- If you can drag yourself away from the MSM coverage of ..birth of the baby "presently known as ..prince X"
(I remember the days when Prince the pop star withdrew from his record deal and became known for legal contract reasons as something like "a squiggle...the artist formerly known as...prince :o)

Anyway moving on
- this is published by the Bank of England & US FDIC
- whilst it is from the end of 2012
- it really does give great insight...as to what is going on... "behind the curtains"
- and how big....a scale

Details proposals & parliamentary changes ....needed...to get the frameworks for the
- DEPOSITOR bail-ins
- moving entities...not already covered by the...Banking Act into being covered by it
- so - they too - will then be covered...by...."the bail ins"

I have already detailed previously some of the Financial Stability Board publications - giving a similar ....taster....of what is "likely to come" on the near horizon

BUT - if you have any doubt as to...what is coming down the track - at ever increaing speed and.....getting closer by the day
- this helps perhaps reinforce further
- 'aving a ....personal plan

Quite hard to envisage ...events...and sequence...of "the big picture" of how day to day life will be...and
- how it unfolds
- WHEN...whats in the document...start swinging into action.

The likely fall of.. dominos (then again a pizza chain failure won't matter much :o)
- and social impact/unrest etc
- is quite hard to try and wrap to wrap the brain cells around

http://www.fdic.gov/about/srac/2012/gsifi.pdf

It's quite short for such a "BIIIIG TOPIC"...and written in suprising clear and plain
- understandable english too