The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

i think that's true...

that would be nice, but it could still go up in flames. all or nowt

Hi dexter. Lynn eh? Im from the Diss area in norfolk. Do you know it? Ive got a very good friend who lives in Brancaster who also is in PET from my recomendation. I also work round that area. Do you know linton?

wilbs

wilbs, I went to Diss high school, moved away four years ago, my parents live Norwich way!

amazing how the 'target' has changed on this one...3 months ago peoples were talking aout 'if only we can get one contract'...now there is so much postive news ref PET/Iraqi government having meetings, disucssions, training etc etc ...that now it sems that a betting man ( we are not gamblers though are we) would be making 2 contract wins the favourite, followed very closely by 3 or more. It is now almost a case of no contracts being the outsider.
would it now be

evens..........2 contracts or more
2/1............only one contract
9/4 ......no contracts

Just a topic to trigger a thought provoking response, although no bets being laid of course.

However with me averaging out at 44.9p I may have to change ny pseudonym if we get the 3 contracts that everyone seems to be suggesting are strong possibilities..any ideas for a suitable name for me if we win ( sorry when we win) all 3....go go go all you PETS

morning wilbs,
i don`t know linton,but have deen to diss a few(or foo as they say!) times,pretty little town.how long have you been in PET?.what is your view as to contracts etc?,mine is two,bordering on all three.
regards,
dexter

4/7 2 contracts
evens 1 contract
10/1 no contracts
66/1 pet oil wells get bombed after contract win
100/1 pet employee/s get kidnapped
1/50 i make a fortune from pet
almost forgot 6/1 3 contracts

Hi,

I do not know what I imagined is wrong or right, just guess sth of PETs fair market value if it at least gets one risk-sharing contract.

Below is my calculation. I make it as quite conservative because I do not know so much actually. Just make a quick and simple calculation for a rough reference.

Project tender 1

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
oil/day m barrel 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Oil price (US$40/barrel) 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Daily m 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
Year X 365 days (m) 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973 973
Net Profit 60% (m) 60% 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584 584

PET profit share with at only 10% (m) 10% 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.4

P/E ratio as moderate level of 18
Discount rate 1/ 18 = 5.6% 5.6%
Discount factor 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.81 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.65 0.61 0.58 0.55 0.52 0.50 0.47
PV (m) 58.40 55.33 52.41 49.66 47.04 44.57 42.22 40.00 37.89 35.90 34.01 32.22 30.52 28.92 27.40


Total NPV (m) 616.48
Total diluted share (m) 65

Share price (100 p) 9.48




I do not know the deal content at all. Just imagine sth based on the information everyone knows now.

So, if one risk-sharing contract (say 10% of profit share), market fair value shall be 950p, if 2, shall be 1900p, if 3, shall be 2800P. But any extra conditions can change this to become more lucrative if oil price set in this simple sheet is not $40, but $45, if profit share is not 10%, but 15% ; if .

But if you take risks factors (discount ratio 20% as suggested in their 2004 slides), the value will still be 500p at least for each tender granted. It is the half of its market fair value calculated above.

The above is totally my own guess and imagination, not the real. So what you think? I know my sheet is too simple but at least I shall say I try to work out what the roof shall be in PETs case, am I right?


Following by yesterday post,

I present you antoher quick way of share price caculation.


If earning of PET stays 54m per year (only one 10% risk sharing contract and 60% profitability for the project revenue stated as above) and take BP's PE ratio 24 currently (of course, BP's risk is far lower than PET, but when PET can take 24, it means Iraq has become quite stable.

so, simple calculation is

Market capitalisation: earning X PE ratio

54m * 24 = 1296 m

total diluted share: 65m

so fair value share price shall be : 1296m/65m = 19.9 per share


remember: it is just for one contract !!


if 2: 19.9 * 2 = 40.00

if 3: 19.9 * 3 = 60.00 per share

even you take quite high risk consideration, say PE ratio shall stay low say 8,

the fair value of share price still shall be at least


risk sharing contracts:

1. 7/share

2. 14/share

3. 20 /share

If the price is not going that range, the company will be too cheap to become the target of take-over because it is undervalue .

am I right? who can tell me?

I am look forward to seeing that within 1-2 year PET share goes as high as 60.00 / per share at current level total diluted share amount.

It is not joke.


for those who bought from 0.30/share, potential is 60.00

so profitablity is 200 times for holding 3 years, not bad.

but of course, the risks are great as well.

I do not know I am right or not, who can tell me? the above is all of my guess, not real yet.

Calculations are fine Universe, but does anyone have the any idea of when we are likely to see any form of statement, any guesses anyone??? one week, two weeks may be a month, or even two months,!!!!!!

I would hazard a guess that we will get an official statement from PET as soon as the CEO returns from Iraq, paerhaps before if communications are good between Baghdad and Ireland (just kidding...it's just that if the deal is signed I am sure PET will want the whole world to know! Hence a lot of dicussion centres on the Iraqi trip dates...which I think we have agreed (thanks to CG) to be next weekend.

As for the impressive calculations by Universe...I need to go through the figures and will get back to you with any major variance if I see one...but I think a low PE ratio is a good starting point at this stage....plus a rework of the Oil price at say $25, $30 dollars....one needs to look at the lower term average for the price rather than the current price explosion.

On the latter theme, it has been reported that Japan is short of winter Oil stocks...as is the US. The US Weather Bureau are predicting a very cold winter...and China we now learn only has 20 -22 days storage of black gold to see it through any supply distruption. Now this is not an Oil thread...but methinks we have a real underestimate of the World's needs for this stuff...and the futures price could keep climbing for some time yet!!

Can any one tell me how to save the capitabl gain tax?

I know investing to AIM share can have taper relief.

for example, total profits:

0-1 year holding: 100%
1-2 year holding: 50%
2- THEREAFTER year holding: 25%

then less capital gain allowarance annual 8200.00 currently

but

for example, if you get 100,000 profit from PET share within only 12 month trading, I think you need to pay (without considering PAYEE and persoanl allowrance etc)

100,000- 8200 = 91800 * 40% = 36,720.

So earning 100,000. you need to pay 36720.

It is too much.


can any one teach me the ways how to save this big chunk except for the AIM tap relief and allowarance known by anyone?

because any tax due will be actually paid to Inland revenue before Nov next financial year, so there are 6 - 18 month for holding this tax due if you realise this tax due within the current financial year. if this is a big chunk, you really need to consider its value.

For example, using 36720 go to horseracing/spread betting, if you win, you can use the free tax betting win to pay off your tax. if you lost, can that loss from betting be tax relief?( I only heard betting profit is free-tax, but not sure about betting loss can be tax relief?)

another example, using this 36720 to invest another AIM or Ofex or whatever to defer the tax due ?

can any experts tell me what to do? any ways legally?any kinds of LEGAL ways for saving capital gain tax from PET profits?

big money gone is always very sad.

Universe...talking about counting your chickens, you have just invented counting your pets
Still at least PET have more chance of winning a contact than Spurs team have of getting into Europe ( unless of course they win a competition where the prize is eleven free tickets on Eurostar)...anyway stay the supreme optimist mate
As for that guy drunker50...good on yer sport...are you still offering the 10/1 about no contract for PET...IF SO please send me your detials as i want 2 grand on at 10/1....that way I am on a ten bagger if they dont get a contract or a ten bagger for my shares when they do win contracts....sounds like a shrewd bit of hedging

lets not soil the name of spurs on this thread...."one day" may not be so far away.
We could do with some news update to keep the share bubbling. Usually no news tends to see prices slide especially as there is a lot of froth in the recent price until news becomes substantiated.

at least they have stabilised at circa 125 to 130 the last 2 and half days after all of the earlier euphoria
I am sure that piston was just having a tease as it could be worse, we could be Scotland fans and then how would we feel.

Interesting e-mail extract from David Horgan on iii PET thread...Sounds like so far so good!

The stabilising is reassuring but my greed is getting the better of me as this has such enormous potential short and long term.
Excuse my spurs sensitivity but having played crap for ten years+ it would be nice to think things are on the change?

I like the look of spurs this season...

Salkeldjp could you pop it on here?

Afternoon all,

Looks like Japan are happy to continue building strong relations with Iraq

hmmmm...... Japan & Ireland building up strong relations with Iraq, now I know that means something for us.......now, what could it be? answers on a postcard to...........


enjoy the article

Tokyo

Japan, Italy agree to cooperate on postwar Iraq aid
MENAFN - 06/10/2004

(MENAFN) Japan's new Foreign Minister and his Italian counterpart agreed to cooperate and work together in providing reconstruction assistance to Iraq, Kyodo News reported.

The Japanese minister said that Japan is also seriously working on Iraqi reconstruction through its economic cooperation and deployment of Self-Defense Forces troops in the southern Iraqi city of Samawah.

10706,


Re your request for e-mail extract from D Horgan - here you are! (Your comments the other day about smashing piggy banks and turfing out sofas made me laugh the other day! Keep it up!!)
Can't be long till lift-off now!

best regards

JS

The extract is as follows:
Everything is going well and the Ministry officials are helping us out to minimise personal risks etc. They are excellent professionals. Our Nominated Advisor says not to comment on dates until we can notify all shareholders simultaneaously. Regards and thanks for your support! David Horgan MD Petrel

-----Original Message-----
From: Maiden Over(work email removed)
Sent: 06 October 2004 18:55
To: 'david.horgan@CooleyWhiskey.com'
Cc: 'davidhorgan@CooleyWhiskey.com'; David Horgan
Subject:

Dear David

Apologies for the intrusion but as a shareholder I wonder if it would be possible to enquire when you are likely to announce whether we (you) have secured the 3 contracts in Iraq. There seems to be varying speculation so I thought I'd go straight to the horses mouth. "I dont know" is a perfectly acceptable answer as are balance of probability answers ie in a month probably or this time next xmas!

Many thanks for the information as I am sure you have your mind on slightly more important things at the moment!

Regards and good luck