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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

55011 - 29 Nov 2005 15:13 - 432 of 1009

A correction to 426 above. With Squaregain, (and maybe with others), part of the RTD holding is not tradable. I find this odd, as no new issue shares were involved, just the consolidation. It smacks of inefficiency, and those considering online brokers might like to bear this in mind for the future.

The online offer has closed in again, to only 5,000 a pop. Seems to be a few selling their new issue (as consolidated) for profit, but maybe hanging on to their core holdings for a further rise

Is it likely that there could be a trading update so soon after these corporate events, I wonder?

pachandl - 29 Nov 2005 16:08 - 433 of 1009

55011 - most are currently assuming an update in the first week of December as seems to have happened on previous occasions. Perhaps this will not happen if RTD are simply meeting current market expectations rather than exceeding them.

55011 - 30 Nov 2005 10:36 - 434 of 1009

Key will be the rapidity of integration of the new acquisition. RTD have experience so I do not expect any problems.

Another rise today, despite the spread, which has now closed a bit.

Fundamentalist - 30 Nov 2005 10:40 - 435 of 1009

55011

Tend to disagree about the key. To me the key will be demonstation that they are managing to grow the CNP business and turn the growth in transactions into increased turnover/profit and hence shareholder value. For the company to trade on a higher pe rating they need to be seen, as they were a year or two ago, as a high growth tech co. If the growth is still absent in CNP (and the decline in CP continues) then they will become valued purely on the fuel card business in which organic growth is seen as limited (most of the recent growth has been fuelled by oil price rises and acquisition)

55011 - 30 Nov 2005 11:59 - 436 of 1009

Agree with you re CNP development. I believe the centre of gravity of RTD has now shifted towards the fuelcard side of the business. I believe that will give RTD a more reliable revenue base, and anything from CNP growth will give a gearing effect. I don't see oil/petrol prices falling very far.


Fundamentalist - 30 Nov 2005 12:01 - 437 of 1009

I think you are right re the gravity which is quite disappointing compared to the prospects 18 mths ago (remember the good old days douggie)

Also agree re oil/petrol prices though cant see continued growth from what is a high base so the concern is where will any organic growth come from, especially as we know CP is continuing to decline

55011 - 30 Nov 2005 12:11 - 438 of 1009

Meanwhile, there is very little selling but buys are coming through steadily.

55011 - 30 Nov 2005 12:15 - 439 of 1009

.

Fred1new - 30 Nov 2005 14:20 - 440 of 1009

fundy & 550, What I am interested to know is the effect of below on earnings:-)


Retail Decisions signs PRISM licence agreement with LG Card, Korea
LONDON (AFX) - Retail Decisions PLC, a fuel card operator whose services include card fraud prevention, said it has signed an agreement to licence its PRISM fraud detection software to LG Card, the largest credit card company in Korea. The company has teamed up with Unisys Corp, the worldwide information technology services and solutions company, to install the PRISM software into LG Card's IT system. newsdesk@afxnews.com


Retail Decisions plc Macy's & Bloomingdale's - New Client WinRetail Decisions ('ReD') the fuel card operator and a world leader in card fraudprevention and payment processing, is pleased to announce it has won FederatedDepartment Stores, Inc. (NYSE: FD / PCX: FD) parent of the world-famousdepartment stores Macy's and Bloomingdale's, as a new client.ReD will be working with Federated to prevent online fraud in the fast growingCard Not Present (CNP) sector, deploying ReD's leading-edge technology,ebitGuard(TM), to do so.Kent Anderson, President of Macy's.com said: 'We're experiencing tremendous growth in our online businesses. With thissuccess, however, we have seen fraud attempts increasing and changing in nature.Rather than continue to cope with this moving target internally, we decided tobring in Retail Decisions, the world's foremost risk management experts.Partnering with Retail Decisions will allow us to concentrate on our corecompetencies'.'ebitGuard is a customised risk management platform that will allow oure-Commerce stores to accept a maximum number of orders while keeping thecriminals at bay. Doing business with ReD allows us to continue to grow ouronline business with confidence'.

========================================

I haven't seen refs to these for while.


Fundamentalist - 30 Nov 2005 14:23 - 441 of 1009

Fred

1 of the big probs weve discussed before is as an investor we never know what these contracts are worth or even how they are structured (ie upfornt payments, amount per transaction etc) - be intersting to see the effect in the annual results

55011 - 30 Nov 2005 15:09 - 442 of 1009

There would be references to "commercial confidence". Also depends how far down the development road they are.

I see Squarewheel have extracted the digit at last and updated my holdings. So they will have done everyone else's too. Might be a few jumping ship this afternoon now. The spread is 1.25p in the old terms, quite hefty. So much for consolidation "reducing the spread, liquidity, blah, blah....". Expect a spell hereabouts and then we can move on again.

phillkay - 30 Nov 2005 17:59 - 443 of 1009

Has a consolidation occurred?

Fundamentalist - 30 Nov 2005 19:00 - 444 of 1009

Yes

5 for 1

optomistic - 30 Nov 2005 20:53 - 445 of 1009

Nothing like keeping informed about your holdings!

Fundamentalist - 30 Nov 2005 20:56 - 446 of 1009

Opto

im the only one who answered and i dont even hold them at the moment!!!

are you still bullish or waiting for annual results?

optomistic - 30 Nov 2005 23:06 - 447 of 1009

Fundy, definately bullish. What are you doing without them, I thought you would have been in around the low 20's. Don't now expect everything to happen overnight but RTD has a long way to grow. IMO!
Looking forward to the results.

Fundamentalist - 30 Nov 2005 23:11 - 448 of 1009

Opto

mostly in cash currently, but continue to monitor RTD. Want to see some transformation from transactions to turnover/profit growth in CNP thats outweighs the decline in CP before ill buy back in

optomistic - 30 Nov 2005 23:20 - 449 of 1009

Fundy, you generally have good judgment and I am sure your point is good about waiting for the growth in CNP to outweigh the CP "decline" (Is it in decline?) I'm not sure about that. Do you not also consider the value of the fuel card business, Fuelserve has yet to be maximised, good growth to come there.
I hope you don't miss the boat and likewise I hope I am not on too soon.
But I do remain bullish.
cheers
opto

Fundamentalist - 30 Nov 2005 23:27 - 450 of 1009

Opto

yes CP is in decline - cant remember the numbers but was definitely down last set of results. As you know i was very bullish on this up until last annual results but just didnt like the numbers. To a degree the lack of growth has been confirmed (imo) by them deciding to buy another fuel card business imo. Yes i value the fuel card business but would view it as more of a utility stock (high yield) than a high tech growth stock which ultimately is why i was invested in RTD and the more predominat the fuel card business comes the lower the PE the company will attract.

Good luck with your holding

optomistic - 30 Nov 2005 23:33 - 451 of 1009

Thanks Fundy, bed for me now. Night.
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