rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

h
i agree with you about lack of good news. i agree with you about down before up also , thats why i just wonder, well, maybe sometimes logic doesnt apply to the market.
we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
regards and good luck
jkd

currently running a small short on ftse from 4360sh level just to help hedge against my longs, many of which are sitting on or near to support levels so reluctant to sell them at moment. also some of my individual shorts are also in the money but may rally or may not so have tightened all stops. what a web.
regards
jkd

It seems to me that the ftse has underperformed other indices of late with its defensive qualities(e.g. dax 720 point premium of late, it has lots of cyclicals). Perhaps much of the rally has been related to the stimulus packages worldwide and low interest rates... causing the libor the lifeblood of leverage to drop. Seems to be a tussle between recovery+hyperinflation, vs. post stimulus depression and deflation. The bond market spreads seem to be widening which I understand will lead to more expensive mortgages which will further pressure the indebted consumer, so some are recommending buying fixed rate mortgages now before they spike. I think volatility might be around the corner again, remember those crazy 1000 point dow moves in a matter of hours!

I'm back in hibernation now so not really following any threads or the market much. :-)

My guess is the market will test the 4000 level (or there abouts) before a bounce back towards 4300, probably with some sideways movement. Unless things change significantly in the world economy I'd expect another major sell off in late Autumn, which will test and then probably take out the lows.

If you look back to the 1930s (not the same but a good reference point), large fast bear market rallies have been followed by equally large % declines. If my (still bearish) prediction plays out, I'll be looking to buy for a Christmas/New Year rally towards the end of the year.

Have a good summer everyone.

Strawbs.
Back to the bear cave now until the Autumn......

Tis a strange thing. Most so called experts are predicting that the market is now going to roll over as we head for a double bottom and yet unless my eyes deceive me, there is more liquidity in the market this am and spreads have come in on some stocks which would suggest that the problems are easing and the market may go north.

Next FTSE support at 4196 I think. DOW support at 8269.
I will look forward to a considerable market boost then, Strawbs, when your stockpiled cash hits the market! Roll on the New year!!!

Think I've been pretty consistent DD with my bearish view, but then I'm no expert. I think the pundits are generally guilty of following short term trends, rather than taking a big picture view. Still. The media may be partly to blame, giving more air time to views that support the prevailing trend.

If only my stockpile was that big Harry. :-)

Strawbs.

as always in these situations, the signals are very confused .... for the immediate future (tomorrow!) the entrails offer encouragement with Wall Street effectively unmoved but oil +$1.87 at $69.37

OIL and connected issues
it is plain for all to see that crude is now heading back to levels where most regions will deem it worthwhile to re-commence development and similar work ..... and you can count Saudi into that equation too, for Aramco, who control these things in The Kingdom, shut up shop 4/6 months ago.

our business has a peripheral though relevant interest in these aspects, and market intelligence is that, though recovery is still pretty fragile, it is assuredly happening across quite a broad spectrum.

to my mind, that makes the likes of Lamprell an even more likely t/o target, and i dare say Kentz and others fall into a similar category.

Petrofac will be an undoubted beneficiary, as well as a probable predator.

Both LAM & KENZ pulled back by at least 10% recently, but the charts not looking particularly interesting. Maybe summer malaise setting in, but with next div in Oct for LAM, I can't see much immediate upside for either of them, unless M&A rumours start.

KENZ was too iliquid for me, but have actually visited LAM and it's a very professional set-up ..... divi is uninteresting ..... it's renewed oilfield activity that will spark sp (t/o rumours being just a bonus), and my own perception is that this is already beginning to happen (gently)

Could be a rocky afternoon on the FTSE as important U.S. data out today:
1:15pm GMT US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, 3:30pm GMT US Crude Oil Inventories , US Total Vehicle Sales.

Or as Liam Gallagher would say "U*king topsy tervy"

What's the verdict then?

3.30 GMT is 4.30 BST, so some info not yet in!
Job stats not good. but not as bad as anticipated:(DOW currently up 86 at 8533)
" July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. cut more jobs than forecast in June, according to a private report today, showing the labor market will be slow to improve even as other parts of the economy indicate the recession is abating.

The 473,000 drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge followed a revised reduction of 485,000 workers in May that was smaller than previously estimated.

Job losses may mount as the bankruptcies of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC ripple through manufacturing. Increased firings threaten to further restrain consumer spending at a time when the worlds largest economy is showing signs of stabilizing. "

Lookk like all went reasonably well in the U.S. today:
" July 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks climbed, extending gains from the best quarter for the Standard & Poors 500 Index since 1998, as improving measures of manufacturing and home sales added to evidence that the worst of the recession is over. Crude oil fell, while gold gained the most in a week.

All 10 industries in the S&P 500 advanced as the Institute for Supply Managements factory index shrank at the slowest pace in 10 months and pending home resales increased for a fourth month."

both ftse and dow now flirting with 200 dma. dow @ 8155sh. with a daily low to date of 8158sh the 233 dma is at 8275sh so interesting to see what happens, i'm still nett long in my trading portfolio but am still holding my ftse short hedge from 4360sh.
may start adjusting ( meddling ) shortly but in mean time am in good shape and happy to just watch and wait, dyor . i'm still long term bearish.
regards
jkd

both dow (8138) and ftse (4152) are close to or have already touched potential support levels

thanks cynic
i dont have level 2, thats why i use the sh .and add dyor, which you clearly do.
regards
jkd

Cynic, any chance of putting small DOW & FTSE charts in the header please?
Lazy I know, but will save me a couple more clicks every day!