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Mediwatch - Watch them rocket in 2005 !!! (MDW)     

overgrowth - 12 May 2005 22:21

Mediwatch is a small company destined to become a much bigger fish by the time this year is out. Mediwatch are already a market leader in urological medical diagnostics equipement and are currently exporting their products throughout the UK, Canada, Europe, India and Japan. That doesn't leave much of the globe left for them to capture - until you remember the good ol' US and China. These are the two massive markets which are destined to be added to MDW's export client portfolio by the end of 2005.

The company is currently heavily undervalued. This is probably because Mediwatch's speciality is not a very glamourous business to be in as their equipment is used extensively to diagnose prostate cancer in men and other nasty urological conditions affecting both men and women. However, don't let that put you off investing in these guys. This is big business and is growing at an exponential rate as more and more people globally become health-aware as they get older.

Mediwatch normally supply their products through to global markets via distribution agreements. They already have the best of distribution partners in the well known US medical distributor CR Bard who supply Canada and Europe and GE Medical who supply Japan. The UK business is handled by Mediwatch's own dedicated sales team.

US FDA approval was gained for MDW's products at the start of last year, however a whole year of US legal wrangling meant that they were unable to seek a suitable partner for the crucial distribution agreement until the start of this year. This distribution agreement is expected by the board to have a "significant effect" on the share price so they are reluctant to give any clues as to when it will be signed, sealed and delivered. The general consensus is that this US distribution agreement will be announced in July/August. In China and Hong Kong, MDW have done things the other way round. They have set up distribution agreements with major Asian medical equipment distributors and have stock already out there waiting to sell into the markets - all they are waiting for is SDA approval (which is a "rubber stamp") from the Chinese authorities - this can take anything up to 12 months to come through and MDW applied during Autumn 2004 - so even more good news coming soon this year. Epidemiological data from British Association of Urology conference last year: On average 30-45% of all men between the age of 50 and 70 have at least one PSA test per year in the US / Italy / Australia.

If that's not enough to convince you to invest a few hard earned coppers in MDW, they are also developing a PSA stick test product (PSAWatch) which is revolutionary and causing some excitement in medical circles. This product can also be adapted (at very low cost) for a whole spectrum of medical disciplines from Cardiology to Veterinary Practice! This product is likely to be released in the next few weeks. Philip Stimpson the CEO has said that this product is going to be their "gold mine" - I'm sure it will prove to be ours too.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=MDW&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=MDW&Si

smudge1004 - 30 Jun 2005 08:21 - 433 of 1497

imo these are excellent results for the year with the last 6 months generating 1 million in revs, andy your right mate 500k r&d will be nothing, notice the 250k overdraft is payable from feb, when revs from psa and the us will be rolling in. taken from the results "Following the successful clinical evaluation of the system, we have commenced
application for regulatory approvals in Europe and the USA and we anticipate
releasing this ground breaking system to the market later this year.

The first revenues are expected from this point - of - care diagnostic system in
the 2005 - 06 financial year"
i know we all want a every scrap of good news in the results, however for a stronger sp i favour continual good news over the next 6 months, I feel the mdw BB will be LITTERED with positive rns's

ptholden - 30 Jun 2005 08:40 - 434 of 1497

L2 quite active, now 2v2.
I think the MMs originally positioned themselves for a sell off this morning (like me!), so far it hasn't happened.
I think the major positive from the results is the increase in turnover during H2 to 1M. Assuming R&D costs will fall off for the next financial year, a likewise increase in turnover for the forthcoming year will see MDW turn to profitability, even without a Medtronic deal. My other concern is the cash flow. Although they have just enough with the overdraft facility to see them through the next five - six months, they really do need to continue to generate revenues, otherwise a bigger overdraft or shares issue will be required to keep going. However, judging by the date of repayments for the overdraft facility they appear confident that this will happen. Fingers crossed.

Good luck to all.

pth

smudge1004 - 30 Jun 2005 08:41 - 435 of 1497

ptholden 1, if thats the case im outta here

mg - 30 Jun 2005 08:42 - 436 of 1497

choccie - I could give you rude answer to that one - but I'm a well-behaved, suave and sophisticated chap - so I won't !!

mg XIV

ptholden - 30 Jun 2005 08:49 - 437 of 1497

Smudge,

Blimey, someone rads the rubbish I write! Have edited.

MG

'Well behaved, sauve and sophisticated' But not on the golf course!!!!

Only kidding.

pth

chocolat - 30 Jun 2005 08:51 - 438 of 1497

Best get the WD40 onto it, ten four ;)

overgrowth - 30 Jun 2005 08:53 - 439 of 1497

Hmmm...to buy or not to buy that is the question ?

Lots of positives in the results and no mention of placements which will help keep the price up around these levels rather than dropping right back.

I think I need confirmation that the support level has moved into double figures before taking the plunge and adding.

I'm going to wait until mid afternoon to see how the lunchtime crowd have taken the results. If the price is still up or unchanged, then I'll be in for more.

pth - I believe that the increase in turnover when PSAwatch comes to market will be phenomenal - making R&D costs almost insignificant, that's where MDW's confidence is coming from I reckon.

It appears to me that the US deal will definitely be with Medtronic as they are in "negotiations".

Loads to look forward to and great to see that revenue from existing products and markets is increasing substantially.

iamole - 30 Jun 2005 13:01 - 440 of 1497

Terrible results, - "record turnover" (1.7m) with losses over 1m, so what? I do watch these and think they may be a good one day, but on these results and their cashburn, illiquidity - time is running out before another cash call, and it always takes much longer than anticipated for revenues to roll in, I'll wait as I believe these will fall back

ptholden - 30 Jun 2005 13:09 - 441 of 1497

og

The medium / longer term looks quite rosy, as long as they do not run into cash flow problems. I have been of the opinion that they may well raise additional cash through a shares issue (discussed with mg during the golf challenge) and these figures do nothing to change my mind regarding that aspect of the business.

I do wonder what EVO were up to last and this week, they clearly were accumulating stock, wonder if they are surprised at the way this has pulled back?

I think that this has further to fall at the moment. I have closed two of my recently opened positions at a loss, but will now let the others run. Hopefully to turn into profits and recover the losses. I am going to keep a close eye on proceedings and may top up again when we see where it is going. In the event that the Medtronic deal is announced in the meantime, I am still in position to benefit.

pth

overgrowth - 30 Jun 2005 13:41 - 442 of 1497

iamole - don't wait too long, nobody expected sparkling results anyway.

The excitement all revolves around the US deal and on announcement my guess is that the sp will rise substantially pulling back to rest in a channel of 14-16p.

I agree that cash burn could be an issue, though it is interesting to note that the payments of the bank loan start in Feb. next year - which should coincide very nicely with the start of revenues coming in from PSAwatch.

pth - I'm going to be watching the price movement very closely over the next couple of days as it appears that 10p is going to provide a good support level. I'm going to buy back in as soon as the price has settled, because if "negotiations" are going on with Medtronic now rather than "discussions", the deal must be pretty close to being wrapped up.

iamole - 30 Jun 2005 15:41 - 443 of 1497

I wouldn't hold my breath, this deal has been "imminent" for 18mths now, and Medtronic know they are in a very strong negotiating position with cashflow a problem at MDW, I've seen it before, the co. with the great new product has to sell out cheap and the large co makes the money or takes over the struggling minnow. Avoid for the time being, wait for the rights issue announcement at 5p

overgrowth - 30 Jun 2005 16:19 - 444 of 1497

iamole - you seem to think that Medtronic is the only US distributor available to take on Mediwatch products lol!

In the very unlikely event that the Medtronic deal is off, then CR Bard would make an ideal partner for the US because they're already distributing into Europe and Canada for Mediwatch. I assume that Mediwatch have gone for a deal with Medtronic in preference to Bard because they will be able to negotiate a more substantial up-front payment.

As you well know, because of legal issues Mediwatch have actually only been working on the deal for the past 6 months. The US deal will be company transforming, hence time needs to be taken to make sure it is exactly right.

Mediwatch have worked very hard to develop the business over the past 5 years, and they are on the cusp of reaping the rewards for all that hard work, they're not going to throw it all away as you seem to be suggesting.

Admittedly the US deal will be a big earner, however PSAwatch is destined to go down a stormer in all other markets too and will be distributed by companies such as GE Medical, Bard, Tronda etc.

This is not a one-deal or one-product company, I think you need to do a little more research before being quite so dismissive - or are you just looking to get in at 8p after scaring everyone away? lol !

overgrowth - 01 Jul 2005 11:26 - 445 of 1497

10p starting to look like a support level...

1nudger - 01 Jul 2005 12:28 - 446 of 1497

overgrowth, im a new boy on a big learning curve, what do support level mean, as much info as possible please....

overgrowth - 01 Jul 2005 13:03 - 447 of 1497

1nudger - I think you'll find that this link explains it pretty well.

http://www.metaquotes.net/techanalysis/support

If you've still got questions after reading the article, let me know and I'll try to answer them.

crispyd - 01 Jul 2005 15:01 - 448 of 1497

1nudger

You are not alone.

Overgrowth thanks for the website.....much appreciated.


Crispyd

optomistic - 01 Jul 2005 15:06 - 449 of 1497

1nudger/crispid, also lots of books in the local library on stock market investing. Reading as many as possible could be time well spent.

1nudger - 01 Jul 2005 15:34 - 450 of 1497

thanks for the info, brillaint to know this BB is a font of knowledge

ptholden - 01 Jul 2005 15:53 - 451 of 1497

1nudger, if you want to learn all about technical analysis (support / resistance and a whole lot more) you could do worse than buying 'Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets' by John J Murphy.

A bit pricey, but a huge amount of information (most of it's available on the web in one form or another, but a lot easier to read from a book). Available through AM.

Good luck.

pth

crispyd - 01 Jul 2005 16:50 - 452 of 1497

ptholden/optomistic

I need to get to grips with the jargon, that'll keep me off the streets for a while.

Thanks for the info.
Crispyd
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