markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
jkd
- 08 Apr 2010 03:48
- 4343 of 6492
its all over bar the shouting... in my opinion, or maybe a miracle. anyone who bought after14th mar were just pure gamblers. ( see my post no.2010). anyone buying now are same..... all in my opinion. discuss as much as we like but until price gets above 130sh and stays there this aint worth the trouble and anxiety.plenty of others out there.
whatever you do or decide then good luck to you..
regards
jkd
edit. whoops! that should read post no.3964
cynic
- 08 Apr 2010 07:53
- 4344 of 6492
you're not quite right insofar as there are a number of prospects in which DES has a slice with others - see header map
markymar
- 08 Apr 2010 16:20
- 4345 of 6492
Back from sunny Cyprus.....happy days!
A post from Oil Brat on iii
Ok folks get a cuppa and start reading and thinking.
The stock market is where the rash give money to the calm.
What happened and what does it mean.
Apologies if some or all of this has been written before. The single most important thing that has occurred as a result of the Liz well is they have tested the geological model over a significant distance from the nearest control point and it has come in very well. This significantly improves the chances of success in other wells. Poor reservoir rock means its tighter than required, this is either result of mineralization or clay content. I would strongly suspect the latter as mineralization is likely to mess up everything including the 17m in the discovery.
Note that they only called this well for Liz and Beth, they declined to comment on the deeper targets but they knew it was possible (Jan in much earlier documentation). It would appear there is an unconformity (a major change in the geology) circa 3000m, they clearly wanted to test this hence the well being at 3500m design.
Note that seismic can not tell you hydrocarbon type and reservoir quality, that can only be done with a drill bit. Liz and Beth have come in as expected but the sandstone is too silty, in this section, note that, in this section. This is a complex depositional environment as indicated by the mention of conglomerates, its a highly variable laustrine fan system. They will now use Senergys sedimentologists in conjunction with the earth model to determine where the clean chanel sands are most likely to be. This has all been done before it isnt easy but there is a science to it.
Most importantly there is charge, and seal, if it wasnt they wouldnt waste time looking up dip. The seal means that the rest of the declared targets and more importantly the number of undeclared targets are now much more likely to be successful. (More on targets later). The charge ie oil presence means the source rock maturity and migration path prediction were correct. A major tick in the box. Incidentally as everything is in place but the permeability and no one can predict that a head of time, the well found the structure as predicted. That means there is an oil filled structure in the North Falklands basin of approx 2 billion bbls in size as per the CPR. So experts state there can be no sizable fields in the NFB? Bamforth get your coat youre leaving.
First gas discovery. A 70m section of reservoir with a 17m section of good reservoir rock. Sorted. Again complex geology but thats a winner. Nice condensate or is it? They dont say where that 17m sits in the 70m. Appeared to be wet gas emm youve got the sample it is what it is or is it, there is no water leg er so is there an oil leg you couldnt draw down on? There is more to this than there are stating. The fact that they have no water contact this far down dip in the structure is extremely good (and indicate very good sealing), but no mention of a gas oil contact, this could well be an oil discovery but the quality channel sand is in the gas cap Watch this space. Senergy will have to do the 3rd party piece on this they cant call their own commerciality on something this complex. If thats condensate then its probably a commercial discovery if its light oil its definitely a commercial discovery. This is only going to get better not worse otherwise they wouldnt have come right out so quickly to call this a discovery.
Second gas discovery. Yes thats what it is but they cant say it out right because they couldnt do the work they did on the first discovery. The well has encountered and I think fairly comprehensively proven a second source system (That should be determined by the geochemistry over the next weeks). Its likely a deeper hot Jurassic source. They have to abandon the well at that point because its too dangerous, note they didnt drill to the desired 200m. Technically they ran out of kick tolerance and they where just too exposed, stopping was the right thing to do. Again if they had found a water contact they would be obliged to declare that as they have specifically declared they didnt in the first discovery. They didnt test because the 9 5/8 shoe couldnt hold the pressure if anything went wrong, they didnt say they didnt test because they didnt think it was worth it, subtle but very important difference! (By the way, there is no way they had Liz and Beth exposed while messing with high pressure gas, so that line about Liz and Beth yet to be sampled was BS in the previous RNS, cheeky but I think my sources where correct)
Two source rocks, this is likely to double the number of targets. Any potential closed structure below the shale seals is now a prospect to be considered as possibly viable. The number of these is likely to be in 100+ range. They say that new reservoir targets have been identified and leave it at that, but they have to cover their collectives where as I can just say it like it is, it will be hundreds, The lower prospects will most probably be hot gas but hell give me that basin wide and Im a happy man.
Ok bigger picture, they have found 3500ft ish of highly hydrocarbon rich formations. They have confirmed two independent petroleum systems and made two discoveries. Lordy you dont see many wells like that one in your career. It is fair to say that the North Falklands basin is prolifically hydrocarbon rich. This is tremendous news for the basin potential as a whole. That is now 6 wells out of 7 with strong hydrocarbon shows (hell 3500ft of it!) that is far far better than the start of the north sea. Basically we are at the start of the next North Sea and our company owns the vast majority of 26 north sea sized blocks of it. You can buy that for approx 180m, the city analysts are clowns, the world financial centre deserves to be moved.
I have been buying this week and will continue to do so while the price is a joke. I am certain I will see a minimum of a 1000% (one thousand percent so there is no typo) return on every pound I invest today over the next three years.
I am often critical of the board but they have played this one brilliantly. Colin sir, as a fellow geologist I tip my hat to you where ever you may be
jkd
- 08 Apr 2010 17:24
- 4346 of 6492
blimey
a one thousand percent return over 3 years. cant be bad.
so my previous posts seems to suggest its first got to prove itself at 200% from here, the difference being just 800%. so why not wait until proven? only miss out on 200% just my opinion.
regards and good luck.
jkd
cynic
- 08 Apr 2010 17:44
- 4347 of 6492
too much hype and hyperbole for me to take all that verbiage at all seriously .... quick scan, and it reads like a load of bollocks and/or wishful thinking from someone who holds too many
halifax
- 08 Apr 2010 17:46
- 4348 of 6492
cynic and a long term dedicated ramper!
cynic
- 08 Apr 2010 18:33
- 4349 of 6492
i assume you are not linking my revered name with ramping - lol!
jkd
- 08 Apr 2010 18:44
- 4350 of 6492
cynic
thanks for interpreting my post correctly.
regards
jkd
TheFrenchConnection
- 08 Apr 2010 18:57
- 4351 of 6492
the article from oil brat flies right in the face of opinions i have sought from 3 different geoscientists. All of whom i have spoken to recently reg informations issued by DES. . His post reminds me of the tactics of the propoganda minister of the Third Reich ,Dr Josef Goebbels, who elevated the working knowledge of plasterers and brick layers to an art form : ' The harder you throw the plaster ,the better it will stick ' Apply this analogy to regards the paradigm of oil formation in the Falklands this then reads ' The bolder the lie,the more credible it is ' ...Oil brat on the back of a recent limp RNS seems to have, somehat arrogantly ,interpreted in a matter of days ,that which in turn puzzled,confounded,thwarted and eventually elluded the cream of Shell geologists for over 3 ferkin years !!!..Many of his figures are plucked from nowhere and his general interpretation is nothing more than pure speculation/ supposition ..Like JKD ill pass on the the initial 200% and await my 800% returns ;-)). For what its worth i happen to believe oil and gas will be found in both falklands basins but at a price, as yet, we simply could not pay !! Or rather cannot pay if economic growth be part of a nations agenda !! ................
aldwickk
- 08 Apr 2010 20:19
- 4352 of 6492
So if DES annouces a oil / gas find and the price spikes we should short it ?
jkd
- 08 Apr 2010 22:04
- 4354 of 6492
a
a spike is only seen as a spike after the event. no one knows.
dont buy, and short, are NOT the same.
regards
jkd
jkd
- 08 Apr 2010 22:59
- 4356 of 6492
m
i was talking to and replying to aldwickk .ok i reckon this aint a buy. but i havnt posted it as a short yet. sorry if you are unhappy that my view is different to yours.
as for the crap, i dont go over there, so i am unable to comment about that, just know that we dont get much on here. i was posting in general and not to topic. for that i say sorry.
good luck to you
regards
jkd
edit, it wont make any difference to price, it will do what it will do.
jkd
- 08 Apr 2010 23:36
- 4357 of 6492
m
headless chicken? see my posts 3964(page 199) and 4343.(this page) plus my others since.
regards
jkd
markymar
- 09 Apr 2010 08:58
- 4358 of 6492
mnamreh
- 09 Apr 2010 10:24
- 4359 of 6492
.
markymar
- 09 Apr 2010 16:09
- 4360 of 6492
Proselenes
- 10 Apr 2010 03:20
- 4361 of 6492
Fair price presently is around 70p a share (with Liz as a total failure) however, if news comes that following lots of work the gas in Liz is considerable and could well be in future, with other finds and a larger total volume, commercial, then the fair value price would be far higher than 70p.
Simply, yes, its oversold presently.
People buying now should easily be able to make a good profit in the coming 6 months, more than you will get in a bank.
Lots of news to come on what the did actually find at Liz, how it effects the total knowledge pool, new targets and of course, lots more drills from DES.
The last remaining shorts now appear to be closing out, and the bottom fishers moving in, following by momentum players so yes, could well be nearer 60p by end of the next week.
TheFrenchConnection
- 12 Apr 2010 06:01
- 4362 of 6492
Marky- One day i forsee the basins of the Falklands yielding great bounty. Of that fact i have no doubt. As reg, current situ :and i re-iterate the current situ; What could possibly be a series of petroleum systems yielding both oil, coupled with its equivalent heavy condensate, and much lighter gas is to say the least very a most complex ,complicated and diverse one: lts more like a maze -and after speaking to Jean Laherrere -a friend of Colins -One that will require a lot more interpretation, employment of state of the art tec, and most importantly a lot more drilling , and i mean a lot more drilling-much of which will be purely remedial to alleviate probs encountered at Liz which in turn will need a lot of financing ........l personally dont think DES can finance a programme of such proportion without farming out a big percentage to a component of "big oil" ..But at what cost ? J/Vs with "Big oil" are like a double edged sword with a tendancy for operator marginalizing smaller interests .......ln saying that if DES should encounter a less demanding resource in later drilling programme then big oil would be q/ing up for a stake. ...,,,,,,,,l believe they are watching and waiting,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ln previous mail i was not suggesting shorting this stock. Simply that it was a complicated call