Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Is the cash going into the con party's coffers to buy election propaganda and support?

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If I don't write more, you will know I have fallen of my bike.

Lifting the B. thing into the car has nearly kill.

The things you will do for grandchildren!

8-)

When it comes to winning the next election, you're wasting you time with opinion polls. If you want to know who's going to win, you need to ask the bookies - they're nearly always right.

Here's the odds being offered on both Labour and the Conservatives to win the most seats. It plots the trend for three popular bookies since 2010. The odds are decimal, so anything under 2 is odds-on.

Both parties are currently just about even to get the most seats, but which way are the trends going?

Labour

Still slightly odds-on, but they've clearly been going outside over the last year or so. By next May, an extrapolation of that chart suggests decimal odds of around 2.2.

Conservatives

Currently evens, and clearly coming inside. An extrapolation of the chart suggests they'll be odds-on to win the most seats come next May.

And that is before UKIP have been smeared and scandalised as a bunch of racists and bigots. Once that happens, and the Tories UKIPise their own policies, they will be heading towards an overall majority.

Absolute rubbish.

Its the marginals that will decide who wins the next GE and Lord Ashcroft has labour in a 5% to 7% lead. And its widening. Thats the trend.

With interest rates likely to rise before the GE it certainly isnt going to help the Tories.

Camoron makes his cabinet reshuffle tomorrow..........despearate times for a desperate man.

You and Old Bollock Chops are the only two who give a toss about those silly polls conducted with an insufficiently representative sample, Fishfinger. They're totally meaningless, especially so as the election isn't tomorrow - it's not until next May, doncha know?

I thought you were the self-proclaimed charting guru round these parts. Look at the longer-term charts and see where the money's going. I know you're not very clever, but has nobody told you that denial isn't a river in Africa?

gf
I fail to see how you can quote Ashcroft and his polls as evidence of a Labour win. Recently, I posted an Ashcroft poll showing that thing were going well for the Conservatives. Your reaction was to suggest that his polling was influenced by Cameron. Do you only believe the information that supports your point of view?

Well its the first time ive heard Hays refered to as " Old Bollock Chops" what happened in the park the other day couldnt he get it up. These are modern time hasnt he heard of viagra.

Anything strike you about these charts Hilary is using????? clue look at the base.

Yep just 3 out of 20 bookies shown on the chart.

Its like taking a representative sample of 3 marginals out of 20 marginals.

And it also proves Hilary doesnt know how bookies use the pre event market to their advantage.

Hays the one you used was after the Camoron vote on the EEC where "Little Englanders" changed over to the tories for a few days. An absolute one off as I predicted correctly.

Think again if you believe I'm referring to Haystack as OBC, Fishfinger. That privilege is reserved exclusively for your red flag flying rent boy, Fred.

And, if you're referring to the fact that I only selected three bookies, that's because the chart loses a lot of clarity with every bookie selected. In addition, some bookies have only recently started pricing the market whilst others can't provide sufficient liquidity to be meaningfully considered.

But if that's what floats your boat, here's the Labour chart with all bookies selected which says the same thing as my earlier chart. Try again, halfwit.

Which clearly shows Labour as outright favourites.

But you carry on with that nasty tounge.

I reckon your suffering from a mid life crisis.........frustration..........lots of frustration.

Hairy one,

Change your knickers.

From your postings you seem to be very bitter?

Are you dejected because you have been rejected or are you expected to be.?


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I wonder how many believe in the charts, polls as reliable prophesies of political futures, or even pronouncements by yourself?

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Interesting to watch "The House of Cards".

Now that maybe symbolically, prophetic of the Cons internal workings!

Whenever, I look at Philip Hammond he reminds me of Francis Urquhart played by Ian Richardson.

It is interesting to watch the Cons imploding and running out of excuses or others to blame for their own folly.

And here it is, the deal that could sink millibandus.



Nigel Farage hints at Ukip deal with Tories

Nigel Farage says that if he was David Cameron he would try to do a deal with Ukip ahead of the next election


Nigel Farage suggests Ukip could do deal with Tories Photo: Rex



By Steven Swinford, Senior Political Correspondent

12:17PM BST 13 Jul 2014

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/10964479/Nigel-Farage-hints-at-Ukip-deal-with-Tories.html



Nigel Farage has suggested he is prepared to do a deal with Conservatives ahead of the next election if they surrender working class seats in Essex and Kent.


Mr Farage said that if he was David Cameron, he would offer to give up 30 seats where the Tories are currently trailing behind Labour to give Ukip a clear run.


In exchange, he suggested that Ukip could agree not to fight the Conservatives in marginal seats in more affluent, middle-class areas such as Dorset.


The move would give Ukip a free-run in areas where Margaret Thatcher, the form Conservative leader, previously made ground for the Tories with her focus on the so-called "Essex man".


The Ukip leader has previously ruled out any form of pact with the Conservatives ahead of the next election.


Mr Farage told The Telegraph: "If I was David Cameron I would reason I have had a very sharp decline in support since 2010. I have basically lost it among blue-collar working class voters, the area in which Ukip has done best.

"There are a number of constituencies out there that are not the wealthy areas of London or the leafy shires – Kent, Essex, parts of Lincolnshire – where they are lying third.

"If I were Tory high command I would say there are a number of seats here that we probably aren't going to win but that Labour probably is going to win.

"If we gave you [Ukip] a run in those seats the you would leave us alone in a lot of other seats that don't have those socio economics. I'm thinking the more middle class areas such as Dorset and equally suburban seats."

Mr Farage is widely expected to stand for the next election in Thanet South in Kent, where Laura Sandys, a Europhile Tory MP, is standing down.

If the Tories did a deal with UKIP.........Ukippers would leave the party in droves.

In fact their is a case to be made for labour getting back some of their voters and still being the biggest party.

Garage is dreaming. He won't have any MPs to make a deal. It is a desperate attempt to stop the decline of UKIP.

He doesent need mp's to do that sort of deal.

It's a mutual non hostility pact.

Are they going to lie on their backs and have tickle each other's tummies.

Sounds a bit what some of them do all ready.
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It is a desperation measure to get MPs as his party are losing support.

And Germany win World War 3 the World Cup!

What a scrap in extra time!

hay if you think ukip support is falling you are far from correct
I will give any one on this thread odds of 2.1 conservatives and min 1000 bet